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Cold and Snow Event Number 2


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#1 snow_wizard

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 07:43 PM

I just had to do a separate post about the next snow threat and Arctic blast number 2. Check out some of what the Seattle NWS is saying about this.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. .

WEDNESDAY...SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 30. .

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

When they just say snow that means they have very high confidence.

Now for the discussion...

AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS A COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN FROM ALASKA. THE 12Z ECMWF...CANADIAN GEM...12Z GFS...AND 18Z GFS ALL SHOW SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR WED. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT...GENERAL 3 - 6 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD OCCUR MOST AREAS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. ALBRECHT

When is the last time they said that? :lol:

#2 bainbridgekid

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 08:36 PM

Looking really nice for the rain shadow proof areas. I predict I get no more than an inch or two with the rain shadow.

#3 snow_wizard

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    PNW winters are DEFINITELY colder than some other places.

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 09:02 PM

Looking really nice for the rain shadow proof areas. I predict I get no more than an inch or two with the rain shadow.

The low will rotate precip around the south end of the Olympics. You should do ok.

#4 Pacific_Cyclone

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 09:46 PM

With my luck it'll be a rain/snow mix. :P Even so, I'm documenting the Arctic outbreak's impact on my area via my written weather journal I started last year with the Advent Storm.

#5 Koln

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 07:47 AM

The heat is back and better than ever! ^_^

Posted Image9

#6 LakeGoodwinMossMan

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Posted 15 December 2008 - 08:36 AM

Current temp: 18 Degrees
5" of snow on the ground

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
601 AM PST MON DEC 15 2008

WAZ001-503>519-160815-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
601 AM PST MON DEC 15 2008

...SNOW EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...
...COLD WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...

SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY. A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST TUESDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW MOIST AIR OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL OVERRIDE THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
PRODUCING SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH
SNOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM CAN EFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE AREA GREATLY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES.
RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS COLD SPELLS
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MAKE THE RECORD LOWS HARDER TO BREAK FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SEATTLE OLYMPIA BELLINGHAM HOQUIAM QUILLAYUTE

15TH 20/1964 * 17/1967 2/1964 25/1967 21/1967
16TH 10/1964 5/1964 -1/1964 16/1964 21/2005
17TH 11/1964 3/1964 6/1964 17/1964 21/1987
18TH 18/1964 13/2005 15/1984 25/1984 21/2005
19TH 17/1990 15/1984 12/1990 21/1990 18/1984
20TH 14/1990 4/1990 11/1990 16/1990 18/1998

* RECORD BROKEN THIS MORNING

SINCE 1990 THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT HAS
DROPPED TO 15 DEGREES OR LESS ONLY TWICE...JANUARY 30, 1996 AND
DECEMBER 20,1998. BOTH DAYS THE LOW WAS 15 DEGREES. IN DECEMBER
1990 THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT SEATTLE TACOMA AIRPORT DROPPED TO
15 DEGREES OR LESS ON 5 DAYS.

THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS FREEZING OR BELOW AT
SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IS 10 SET JANUARY 21-30, 1969. HERE
IS A LIST OF THE TOP FIVE STREAKS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FREEZING
OR BELOW AT SEATTLE TACOMA AIRPORT.

1. 10 DAYS JANUARY 21-30, 1969
2. 9 DAYS DECEMBER 4-12, 1972
3. 7 DAYS JANUARY 27 TO FEBRUARY 2, 1950
4. 7 DAYS JANUARY 12-18, 1950
5. 6 DAYS DECEMBER 19-24, 1990

IN JANUARY 1950 THE AVERAGE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH
WAS 30.7 DEGREES. THIS IS THE ONLY MONTH IN THE OFFICIAL SEATTLE
WEATHER RECORDS THAT THE AVERAGE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS
BELOW FREEZING.

$$

FELTON
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

#7 dabears1020

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 02:55 PM

I just looked at the decoded numbers, and the 12z ties for 2nd coldest run in the last week down here. Shows me making it well into the 20s on Wednesday night, along with well over an inch of precip while in the mid-low 30s on Wednesday. This seriously has the potential to be majorly historic down here. :woot_jump:

#8 Flatiron

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 02:56 PM

Interestingly I've picked up a 10-15 mph northerly breeze in the past half hour...How is the system taking shape right now? Ahead or behind schedule? Developing as expected? Thoughts...


Looking at the latest satellite images, it appears that the leading edge of the developing system is rapidly moving into northern Vancouver Island. In fact, Vancouver, Canada is already reporting mostly cloudy conditions. I expect high clouds will start moving into northwestern WA within the next hour or two.

#9 Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 02:58 PM

[quote name='tt-sea' date='Dec 16 2008, 12:55 PM' post='353552']
A little bit but its hard to tell... more of a widespread snow on that model.

This is pretty much all snow on this side of Puget Sound... we are going to be buried!!

Posted Image

Looks like Bellingham will be getting between 6 and 9 inches, but we will not be alone in that.

#10 dabears1020

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:02 PM

Taken at face value the 12z is showing several inches of snow at my house tomorrow. This is unbelievable. Then that night it shows me making it well into the 20s. If I actually had some snow cover on top of that, I could see low 20s or maybe even teens if everything goes *perfectly*.

#11 dabears1020

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:04 PM

Taken at face value the 12z is showing several inches of snow at my house tomorrow. This is unbelievable. Then that night it shows me making it well into the 20s. If I actually had some snow cover on top of that, I could see low 20s or maybe even teens if everything goes *perfectly*.

I'm quoting this just because I never thought I would ever see myself seriously post something like that in my life. ^_^

#12 Andy in Woodinville

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:10 PM

Just a quick post here.... but am still hoping for snow! Sunny here and a cool 26 as of last hour.

#13 Flatiron

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:17 PM

As of 1 pm....

Bellingham is 29
Everett is 28
SEA is 29
Tacoma is 30
Olympia is 30
PDX is 29 (down a degree)
Salem is 28
Eugene is 25

The modified Arctic airmass is holding strong.

#14 bainbridgekid

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:25 PM

mm5 WRF still crap for me tomorrow. Gives me less than an inch throughout the entire event. I sure hope it is wrong.

4AM tomorrow through 4 AM Thursday. :axesmiley2:
Posted Image

Sometimes I hate the Olympics.

#15 Skip

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:32 PM

mm5 WRF still crap for me tomorrow. Gives me less than an inch throughout the entire event. I sure hope it is wrong.

4AM tomorrow through 4 AM thursday. :axesmiley2:
Posted Image

First, the NWS even said the yare believing the Euro and NAM more.

Second, how do you reasd those numbers on that map. .5, 1, and so on. Is .5 actually .005 or what? 1 is actually .01? :huh:

#16 Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:36 PM

Looking at the latest satellite images, it appears that the leading edge of the developing system is rapidly moving into northern Vancouver Island. In fact, Vancouver, Canada is already reporting mostly cloudy conditions. I expect high clouds will start moving into northwestern WA within the next hour or two.


In downtown Bellingham there are now high clouds filtering the sun, and looking N/NW, a bit more cloudy.

#17 pscz1140

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:41 PM

Second, how do you reasd those numbers on that map. .5, 1, and so on. Is .5 actually .005 or what? 1 is actually .01? :huh:
[/quote]

Yeah, 1 is .01 inches. I'm choosing not to believe that map either and trust in my screen name. :P

#18 Ron97267

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:47 PM

Just saw Phil Volkers latest forecast (KOIN6 Weather Forecaster in the 80's,Private Consulting Meterorologist) current within the last 2 hours and he is forecasting all snow from Salem northward through Western Washington with the exception of the immediate coastline. Forecast amounts are 4-7 inches for the Valley, 7-13 inches on the hills. More snow late weekend and continued cold with occasional chances for snow through the New Year. He stated this could be a Holiday Break to remember....

#19 Skip

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:47 PM

Second, how do you reasd those numbers on that map. .5, 1, and so on. Is .5 actually .005 or what? 1 is actually .01? :huh:


Yeah, 1 is .01 inches. I'm choosing not to believe that map either and trust in my screen name. :P

NWS seems to believe in a CZ also. Slowly moving South as the cold air pushes it south. :lol:

Thanks for the answers.

.1 of moisture usually is 1" of snow right?

#20 Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posted 16 December 2008 - 03:48 PM

I hope Phil Volker is right. Thanks for sharing that. I am a bit nervous about next week, it might go a bit warm on us, but even if it does a little bit, if we have a lot of snow from tomorrow and the weekend, we could still get a white Christmas.

On another note, Scott Siskek from KOMO posted this recently:

"The GFS-12 is about 3-4 hours behind on timing of the NAM-12. The NWS is doing a media briefing at 3. We'll see what they have to say




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