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11/16 - 11/19 Rocky Mtn - Great Lakes Autumn Storm


Tom

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The storm continues as yet another powerful system targets the southwestern U.S. and ejects out into the southern Plains cutting off from the main jet.  More heavy Rocky Mtn Snows are expected and some may fall in the western/southern Plains.  This storm will have it all from snow, severe wx and torrential rains as it will be a slow mover.

 

Let's discuss...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111312/gfs_asnow_us_21.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111312/gfs_apcpn_us_26.png

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I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska.  Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow.  Most local TV weather guys are on the fence.  The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain.

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I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska.  Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow.  Most local TV weather guys are on the fence.  The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain.

Indeed, cut-off systems are a very difficult for the models to handle.  They usually are to fast to eject systems out into the Plains.  Maybe if there is a slower solution, the northern piece could drop down farther south and phase a little better.  The AO will be negative around the 15th-18th, should that help in anyway for the system to produce colder air.

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My forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow for next Sunday. Its a week away, but, for them to be calling out this forecast this far out, looks very interesting. Let the fun begin.

It also gets quite chilly with temps barely at the 40 degree mark for highs and lows in the 20's to near 30.

 

BTW..snowqualls around today made for an fun day.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It will be very interesting to see what kind of snow totals verify for the front range and western Nebraska, the GFS has been very consistent.

I'd imagine some up-sloping winds will do the trick.  Denver may finally get their first significant snow of the season.  Scary how consistent the GFS has been.

 

00z GFS showing the GOM transport coming north into MO/IL and Tekarkana region...

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I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska.  Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow.  Most local TV weather guys are on the fence.  The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain.

RPM model showed a transition to snow in C NE right where you live.  I think models are under doing the cold pocket with this storm system.  You may squeeze out a few inches outta this storm.

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Primary low in Canada really bombs out near Hudson Bay on Thursday. Unleashes the Arctic air.

 

 

post-7-0-17768300-1447615710_thumb.jpg

 

Don't think I believe 21", but maybe a broad area of 4-8".

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Blizzard watch out again for SW Nebraska and NW Kansas.seems to be the hot spot this year.

Thanks for the heads up!  2nd Blizzard in less than a week...if this is the trend for this Winter season, we're going to have one hellova time tracking these systems!

 

Blizzard Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

251 PM MST SUN NOV 15 2015

 

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND

TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND SNOW

AMOUNTS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE TRI-STATE

REGION OF COLORADO...KANSAS...AND NEBRASKA WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AND

THE POSSIBILITY FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

 

KSZ001>003-013-014-027-NEZ079>081-160600-

/O.NEW.KGLD.BZ.A.0002.151117T1200Z-151118T0600Z/

CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-DUNDY-

HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...

GOODLAND...COLBY...SHARON SPRINGS...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK

251 PM MST SUN NOV 15 2015 /351 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/

 

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS

AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 5 AM MST/6AM MDT TUESDAY BEFORE

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL

AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY

THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP AND CREATE

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROAD CLOSURES.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE

WITH SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW TO PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TRAVEL

MAY BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE WHICH COULD

RESULT IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER

FORECASTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM.

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Cold air just can't get around to meet up with these huge storms.  D**n shame, this November could have been something special.

 

Either need the NAO or the AO to drop off in order to dislodge that cold air further north.

 

Newest snow map from the NAM. Pivotalweather.com map

 

post-7-0-02582500-1447716652_thumb.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Using Jim Flowers 30 day Theory, this storm is going to be fun to track in mid December!  By then, Euro Weeklies/CFSv2 is seeing blocking over the top.

 

Living in the Plains, you folks have some very interesting weather that happens this time of year.  I love watching these dynamic systems just blossom as they skirt the Rockies.

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Here you go Nebraska guys. 4km NAM pushing the snow even farther east.

 

post-7-0-81378100-1447731599_thumb.jpg

 

12km NAM. Several of you are lookin' better!

 

post-7-0-47629900-1447731880_thumb.jpg

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here you go Nebraska guys. 4km NAM pushing the snow even farther east.

 

attachicon.gif4kmNAM_PlainsSnow_111815.jpg

Has a ways to go before I see any of the white stuff....I just want a heavy dose of rain and for this storm to cycle back and affect me in the heart of winter!! I'll gladly take the rain, I recently tilled up part of my lawn and put a big load of chicken crap on it. Come this spring time hopefully a lot of precipitation has fallen and allows that soil to mellow out.

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Seems like this storm is digging better and taking a jog SE.  The Euro picked up on this yesterday and now today's 00z runs are showing it.

 

00z GFS a tad farther east with the snow band from its 06z/12z runs...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111700/gfs_asnow_ncus_8.png

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Has a ways to go before I see any of the white stuff....I just want a heavy dose of rain and for this storm to cycle back and affect me in the heart of winter!! I'll gladly take the rain, I recently tilled up part of my lawn and put a big load of chicken crap on it. Come this spring time hopefully a lot of precipitation has fallen and allows that soil to mellow out.

 

Maybe you can get some snow to at least fly in the air. 

Yeah you need a good rain to work those nutrients from the Chicken crap into the soil! haha

 

GFS snowfall map with some totals.

 

post-7-0-70564500-1447732843_thumb.jpg

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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