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What Are Your Thee Biggest Cold Bust Heartbreaks


snow_wizard

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I was just thinking about the horrible cold weather bust of January 2005, and it brought up memories of some other big ones that fell through in my lifetime. For those who don't remember, in early January 2005 the pattern was about a 90% match to January 1950, but some minor details ruined the pattern and it brought nothing more than run of the mill cold and a little bit of snow to Western WA (with the exception of Whatcom County).

 

My top three heartbreaks would be.

 

1. January 2005

 

2. February 1988...The NWS was touting the likelihood of a monster snowstorm with bitter cold temps. An absolute total bust.

 

3. January 2011...while it was never a lock, a huge snowstorm looked pretty likely.

 

Honorable mention has to go to the winter of 2007-08. I couldn't believe how many times it snowed a ton just a few hundred feet higher than my location. At the same time all MBY could ever manage that winter was some periodic slop.

 

I'm also sure there would have been more memorable busts if there had been models to look at prior to the mid 1990s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah 07-08 was quite frustrating. So close yet so far away. Dec 08 made it all better though!

 

And of course Jan 05. Had a nice snow but with predictions of 1950 from NWS looming it was a tough one to swallow.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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As far as snow busts go, I think with regards to the Portland NWS, you'd have an easier time catalogging events that they actually got right prior to the onset.

 

December 20, 2008, January 6, 2004, several close call events over the years that they maybe wisely steered clear of hyping up, otherwise it's pretty slim pickings in the last 25 years.

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Speaking of busts, 12-1-05 comes to mind although that was more an NWS issue not a model issue.  

 

10 year anniversary coming up!

 

We did manage to score some of the snow Portland was supposed to get up this way on that one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Anyhow, getting back to the real topic.

 

1. Dec 1996. I know this one sounds weird since much of western WA got buried, but there were actually two times where it looked like things would turn out a lot better where I lived in S. Tacoma: the day after Christmas, the forecast was for up to a foot, but we ended up with 3" before it turned to freezing rain. Then about a day later, the forecast was calling for another big storm in a couple days and temps staying below freezing, but that storm ended up warming things up rapidly and melting all the snow (though it did dump a quick 7-8" before it turned to rain). It was still a very exciting period, but was nothing like what Seattle north experienced.

 

2. January 2005.

 

3. Dec 1998 in Silverton. It got really cold, but a couple of times it looked like we'd get some snow, and barely even got a flurry.

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I think snow forecasts in the PNW lowlands will continue to be difficult, except in Olympia where it will always snow when forecast and at Jesse's cave where it will never snow again.

 

Indeed. Jan 2012 was the biggest snowstorm recorded at a major I-5 station in quite awhile. BLIsnowman could probably tell us the last time...I'm sure Bellingham saw 16"+ in a single snowfall in Dec 1996, that might have been it.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1. January 2011

 

My number one I’d have to say is January 2011. A week out up to like 3-4 days out if i remember right, the forecast models were showing 3 separate lows slamming into between SW WA/NW OR in a matter of 4 days. At one point the EURO and GFS both showed between 2-4 feet of snow falling in parts of Western Washington over that span. I remember one particular run showed 30 inches for SW Washington from one storm. It was ridiculous, but you can imagine, and probably remember the hype going on. I was coaching JV basketball at Bellingham High School when that was all going on, and I was talking it up like the storm/s were going to be epic/never seen before in our lifetimes... And then a couple days out, energy started being shown digging further offshore, the low hung out too far and then came into our north, ruining the entire pattern. We got 5 inches of overrunning snow in Bellingham followed by heavy rain and temps in the 40’s/50’s... .Far from the 3 feet of snow and temps in the teens/20’s models were showing just a few days prior. 

 

2. January 2004. 

 

Many remember January 2004 for the early month blast/snow. That was actually one of my favorite events in my lifetime... However, I remember later in the month the GFS showing an arctic blast with sub freezing temps lasting between a week to 10 days. That was around the time I was in full fledged email overload with Scott Sistek at Komo 4. I was in total weenie mode at the ripe age of 15. As the even got closer, everything slid east, as many GFS blasts eventually did, and we ended up with a week long span of highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s under a ridge of high pressure. LAME. 

 

3. January 2005.

 

Between January 1st and 14th I recorded 11 highs below freezing, with an 8 inch snowfall on the 7th/8th. GREAT RIGHT??? Well, given the expectations we all had at the end of December and early January, the heartbreak I felt for so many days before we actually got that snowfall on the 7th still sticks with me. I had hyped my family and friends up so much, and we were all on such a high here at the weather forum, that even though I scored pretty good in Bellingham, it still didn’t have a satisfying feel to it. I did have a blast and cultivated some of my fondest snow memories during that particular snowstorm, but it was bitter sweet. 

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1. January 2011

 

My number one I’d have to say is January 2011. A week out up to like 3-4 days out if i remember right, the forecast models were showing 3 separate lows slamming into between SW WA/NW OR in a matter of 4 days. At one point the EURO and GFS both showed between 2-4 feet of snow falling in parts of Western Washington over that span. I remember one particular run showed 30 inches for SW Washington from one storm. It was ridiculous, but you can imagine, and probably remember the hype going on. I was coaching JV basketball at Bellingham High School when that was all going on, and I was talking it up like the storm/s were going to be epic/never seen before in our lifetimes... And then a couple days out, energy started being shown digging further offshore, the low hung out too far and then came into our north, ruining the entire pattern. We got 5 inches of overrunning snow in Bellingham followed by heavy rain and temps in the 40’s/50’s... .Far from the 3 feet of snow and temps in the teens/20’s models were showing just a few days prior. 

 

2. January 2004. 

 

Many remember January 2004 for the early month blast/snow. That was actually one of my favorite events in my lifetime... However, I remember later in the month the GFS showing an arctic blast with sub freezing temps lasting between a week to 10 days. That was around the time I was in full fledged email overload with Scott Sistek at Komo 4. I was in total weenie mode at the ripe age of 15. As the even got closer, everything slid east, as many GFS blasts eventually did, and we ended up with a week long span of highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s under a ridge of high pressure. LAME. 

 

3. January 2005.

 

Between January 1st and 14th I recorded 11 highs below freezing, with an 8 inch snowfall on the 7th/8th. GREAT RIGHT??? Well, given the expectations we all had at the end of December and early January, the heartbreak I felt for so many days before we actually got that snowfall on the 7th still sticks with me. I had hyped my family and friends up so much, and we were all on such a high here at the weather forum, that even though I scored pretty good in Bellingham, it still didn’t have a satisfying feel to it. I did have a blast and cultivated some of my fondest snow memories during that particular snowstorm, but it was bitter sweet. 

 

I forgot about that second Jan 2004 one. Good call. I don't think that one ever got within 5 days in the forecasts, but I do remember seeing a 7 day forecast with sub-freezing highs at the end.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1. January 2011

 

My number one I’d have to say is January 2011. A week out up to like 3-4 days out if i remember right, the forecast models were showing 3 separate lows slamming into between SW WA/NW OR in a matter of 4 days. At one point the EURO and GFS both showed between 2-4 feet of snow falling in parts of Western Washington over that span. I remember one particular run showed 30 inches for SW Washington from one storm. It was ridiculous, but you can imagine, and probably remember the hype going on. I was coaching JV basketball at Bellingham High School when that was all going on, and I was talking it up like the storm/s were going to be epic/never seen before in our lifetimes... And then a couple days out, energy started being shown digging further offshore, the low hung out too far and then came into our north, ruining the entire pattern. We got 5 inches of overrunning snow in Bellingham followed by heavy rain and temps in the 40’s/50’s... .Far from the 3 feet of snow and temps in the teens/20’s models were showing just a few days prior. 

 

2. January 2004. 

 

Many remember January 2004 for the early month blast/snow. That was actually one of my favorite events in my lifetime... However, I remember later in the month the GFS showing an arctic blast with sub freezing temps lasting between a week to 10 days. That was around the time I was in full fledged email overload with Scott Sistek at Komo 4. I was in total weenie mode at the ripe age of 15. As the even got closer, everything slid east, as many GFS blasts eventually did, and we ended up with a week long span of highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s under a ridge of high pressure. LAME. 

 

3. January 2005.

 

Between January 1st and 14th I recorded 11 highs below freezing, with an 8 inch snowfall on the 7th/8th. GREAT RIGHT??? Well, given the expectations we all had at the end of December and early January, the heartbreak I felt for so many days before we actually got that snowfall on the 7th still sticks with me. I had hyped my family and friends up so much, and we were all on such a high here at the weather forum, that even though I scored pretty good in Bellingham, it still didn’t have a satisfying feel to it. I did have a blast and cultivated some of my fondest snow memories during that particular snowstorm, but it was bitter sweet. 

January 2011 was the definition of bitter sweet for me.

 

I got 4" on the 9th and 5" on the 12th with the overrunning event with cold weather in between at Western.

 

Woulda been amazing in any other situation, but happening at the same time the models were collapsing from the multiple epic snowstorms made it pretty disappointing.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1. Nov 2015. This month I have watched 4 separate times when after watching model agreement across all models and ensembles for 6-12"+ of snow and Temps of 20-25/5-10 has evaporated into no snow and highs in the upper 30s. And to make it worse it keeps happening after watching great model agreement for a week in the last 1-3 days before it arrives. I hate weather right now...

2. January 2005 was similar as others have pointed out.

 

3. Winter 2011/2012 (Nov-Jan) - Same sort of stuff as above watching promising systems break apart and hit areas north and south while I got nothing...over and over. 

4. Maybe Nov 2010 when my blizzard warning for 6-10 inches turned into a breezy 1/2 inch of snow. I guess on the plus side it still got cold.

5. Who knows how many times growing up the forecast was for snow and cold which shifted east at the last minute and we got 1500 foot snow levels in Oregon.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 9 months later...

I'd like to list the top four heartbreaking busts from my early years, when I was an impressionable young weather weenie. All four occurred during a 12 month sequence, and I'll present them in chronological order without playing favorites.

 

December 8-10, 1995

 

Major Arctic airmass in Alaska leading up to this one. Fort Yukon at -59 and Juneau at -10. I believe this is the last time Juneau hit -10, up to the present. At the time, 5-day forecasts called for 28/20 type weather in Portland with snowfall at 4-5 days out. Instead, the bulk of the Arctic air slid east of the Rockies. International Falls, MN experienced their coldest weather on record so early in the season, a high of -18 and low of -39. Portland caught a glancing blow, with a 34/30 day along with freezing rain on the 9th. 

 

Late January 1996

 

We already discussed this one at length yesterday in a different thread. To summarize, Portland was progged for a major (5-8") snowstorm just 3 days out. Was supposed to occur with highs in the lower 20's, followed by several sunny days with ridiculously cold temps. If I remember right the coldest max/min pair on Mark Nelsen's 6-day forecast was 21/3. Granted, nobody else was that cold and Mark Nelsen stood out during those years for always having the most extreme forecast among the local mets. I believe the next coldest outlook among the local stations was something like 25/9. Regardless, the snowstorm never materialized and the coldest reading at PDX was 14 - impressive, but nowhere near the minimums we could have realized with a decent snowcover. 

 

Late February 1996

 

A late season Arctic outbreak with snowfall was progged in the 5 day range. Mark Nelsen had 34/18 and the Weather Channel had something like 33/23, and both also called for at least some snow. This was a decent late season Arctic airmass (-13 at Billings, MT on the 28th) but once again the bulk of the cold air went east of the Rockies. PDX did end up with a 42/27 day on the 27th but was bone dry. To add insult to injury, Eugene scored a major snowstorm on the 28th with up to 8" in the city. The snow made it as far north as Salem that morning but no further, leading to lots of frustration by yours truly in Oregon City. Several days later, a major overrunning snowstorm struck Courtenay, BC with 53.4 cm (21.0") on March 3rd, their greatest calendar day snowfall on record.

 

Late December 1996 

 

The winterfest that struck NW Washington was initially progged to affect Portland as well. I remember forecasts of 24/19 with snowfall at about the 5 day range. As we all know the Arctic air never made it that far south. PDX ended up no colder than 36/30 but did experience a major ice storm. Meanwhile, all-time record cold was observed at 100 Mile House in south central BC (-54F), Bellingham had highs in the 10's with 3+ feet of snow, and up to 58" buried Victoria. 

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Late December 1996 stands out for me. My uncle lived in Bellingham at the time and was calling me with nightly updates. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Late December 1996 stands out for me. My uncle lived in Bellingham at the time and was calling me with nightly updates. 

 

I wasn't even in town for that one. I was on a family vacation in LA and then Vegas through that whole stretch. It would have stung a lot more if I missed a major snowstorm, so in a twisted way I'm kind of glad it didn't materialize.  :lol:

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Late December 1996 stands out for me. My uncle lived in Bellingham at the time and was calling me with nightly updates.

Although I was only 8, that's the event that started it all for me. I still remember seeing emergency broadcasts on the television, something I don't recall ever happening prior (in my lifetime) or post that storm. I doubt I'll ever see a storm of that intensity again in my lifetime, but I'd love to be wrong.

 

Ironically, Brennan and I planned the other day to rewatch VHS news recordings from that storm as soon as we both have time

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Although I was only 8, that's the event that started it all for me. I still remember seeing emergency broadcasts on the television, something I don't recall ever happening prior (in my lifetime) or post that storm. I doubt I'll ever see a storm of that intensity again in my lifetime, but I'd love to be wrong.

 

Ironically, Brennan and I planned the other day to rewatch VHS news recordings from that storm as soon as we both have time

 

You'll probably see colder and much longer lasting, but very possible never that amount of snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We've had many snowstorm busts in recent years. Boxing Day 2010 still leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

 

Literally had the rug pulled 36hrs out. What looked like 12-18" of powder and hurricane force gusts turned into a frigid, cloudless night with no snow...but those howling winds verified and kept me awake so I had to watch NYC get destroyed. :(

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Although I was only 8, that's the event that started it all for me. I still remember seeing emergency broadcasts on the television, something I don't recall ever happening prior (in my lifetime) or post that storm. I doubt I'll ever see a storm of that intensity again in my lifetime, but I'd love to be wrong.

 

Ironically, Brennan and I planned the other day to rewatch VHS news recordings from that storm as soon as we both have time

That is so awesome that you two are going to watch my recordings again! I sent copies to Brennan and Tim way back in the day. I keep meaning to get my originals copied over to DVD but Haven't gotten to it yet.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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That is so awesome that you two are going to watch my recordings again! I sent copies to Brennan and Tim way back in the day. I keep meaning to get my originals copied over to DVD but Haven't gotten to it yet.

Those are your copies?! I couldn't remember who supplied them, but I think that's awesome. If only there was footage of Bellingham available during that time!

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Those are your copies?! I couldn't remember who supplied them, but I think that's awesome. If only there was footage of Bellingham available during that time!

They were! I was a bit obsessed with recording newscasts during storms (mainly snow events) and they were focused around the Jan 1996/Nov/Dec 1996 events. I also had extensive footage of Dec 1990 but I let relatives barrow the original tapes years ago and they "lost" them.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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At least there's this. Starts to get really impressive around 4 min.

 

 

Good video. I love seeing the cars buried up to the windshield. That storm dropped 58" on Colwood just outside of Victoria proper. 

 

Also, somebody needs to tell that ungrateful lady @ the 3:08 mark that she's witnessing history! 

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