Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last night the EURO came in with a great track for a lot of us. I think this system will survive on the models now. Now we get to see where it travels over. 6z GFS. Discuss away... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 6z GFS still on board for Friday. How was Euro?00z Euro...still on board and tries to give a lot of us on this sub-forum from the Plains/Lakes some snow fall...that's as close of a "share the wealth" snow system as you can get early on in the season. Better than nothing. I see the Euro is trying to dig this storm as it cuts NE towards S IN/S OH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just posted in the November thread, maybe you can transfer it over here. I agree, looks like this will be a nice first snow system to track this season and many of us may benefit from it. MI may get pounded! Once we get better sampling, these type of systems tend to dig/intensify as they head up this way. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 ORD Snow Plume... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Nice looking baroclinic zone with this one as currently modeled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 It would be quite rare to see warning type snows for the first legit snowfall. Since most models are showing a storm, it has sucked me in to follow it but I am still not ready to give up on this great weather we have been blessed with. Hopefully the weather will revert back for Thanksgiving weekend, after that it can snow all it wants! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro looks much weaker atleast for over here in IA. Nice to see all models on board for a system though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Fantasy Land 12z NAM starting to show this wave dig in the Plains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The sprawling HP south of Greenland can help slow this wave down and dig a bit more. Something to keep an eye on in future runs. Also, this is a pretty decent looking "speed max" up in the jet stream...should provide some good "lift" potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z GFS a bit weaker...might be more realistic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 ORD Snow Plume... The Midway graph is a little lower. But, MDW still averages around 5". But, that average is pulled up quite a bit by one GFS outlier. I suspect Midway is in for 2-3". Ord maybe 4". Looks like the Wi-Il line will get the bulk of the snow. Still, a decent little event for this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 ORD Snow Plume... The Midway graph is a little lower. But, MDW still averages around 5". But, that average is pulled up quite a bit by one GFS outlier. I suspect Midway is in for 2-3". Ord maybe 4". Looks like the Wi-Il line will get the bulk of the snow. Still, a decent little event for this time of year. Indeed, not going to complain..esp since the avg snowfall in November is 1.2"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 GEM now is south, which is a good spot for 4 days out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, If this system turns out to be a tad colder, esp later on Saturday night/Sunday, you can get some heavy lake effect squalls off of LM. 00z Euro run picked that up nicely near GRR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z GFS looks slightly weaker. Any snowfall maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z GFS looks slightly weaker. Any snowfall maps? Tom posted a map above at 10:04 am.Realistic. Would be quite good for a pre-Thanksgiving snowfall. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Oops missed it. Thanks. Yeah prolly more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12z Euro a bit more impressive with this wave out in the Plains thru 78hr...will post maps when fully loaded... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 This storm is heading towards my thinking from the beginning. 12z Euro has it really trying to amp up as it heads into S IL/S IN/OH...more precip gets wrapped into this system near the Lower Lakes...it ends up spinning up into a 994mb SLP just NW of Buffalo. Edit: Speed max looking more healthier this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, If this system turns out to be a tad colder, esp later on Saturday night/Sunday, you can get some heavy lake effect squalls off of LM. 00z Euro run picked that up nicely near GRR. Yeah, GR is gonna be golden for early season LES. They're the perfect distance. Gonna cash in big time with the warm water temps. Heck, I even think mby (80 miles inland) has a shot at a decent LES event or two the way this season is shaping up. Let the games begin! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Not sure if these links will work, but if they do, it shows the snowfall for the Euro and GFS https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=892236590867495https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=892236864200801 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Nice looking run from the Euro! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Im hoping for a northward shift which happens often as we get closer but we will see. Regardless, I think i have a good chance at having a white ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 It'll just be unfortunate to see it go away fairly fast most likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 E.D. back in the house. Ready to track some storms?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Of course I am! Ready as always, let's hope it's an active winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Well let's see how it rolls this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 18z GFS...sorta losing intensity...medium range problems??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 That cut off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 18z GFS...sorta losing intensity...medium range problems???That's exactly what I'd expect with this sort of set-up. Really don't see anyone getting >6" out of this one. 2" max for the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Would still take this. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter. November 17,1989Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot. while December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6° and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6" most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This storm bears watching. I'm in the 3-5inch range as of now, but likely to change in time. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Long Range NAM is North of GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Long Range NAM is North of GFS Weaker and more disorganized too.It's only the NAM at the end of its run. Not putting much stock in it! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS is not wavering! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS is not wavering!I see that. Only negative over this way is the snow falls during the day which could limit accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I see that. Only negative over this way is the snow falls during the day which could limit accumulations. Actually it did sneak south a little. Band isn't as wide as it was on the last 0z run. Still for November 20th it's pretty darn good. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.