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Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm


Geos

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UKMET looks like it's on the stronger side.

 

At HR 96 it has a 1002 L in E. MI. Not sure what happens between 72 and 96.

 

Here is the precip map at HR 72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

25 MM is about 1 inch QPF.

 

Looks like it has an area of 20-25 MM in Iowa at HR 72.

 

HR 96:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

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Let's see if the Euro holds it's juice/track on tonight's 00z run.  Really surprised there is so much consistency on track 3 days out.  GFS seems to be having its medium range problems as far as intensity goes.

 

Is the GGEM known to be wetter than other models?

Ya, its usually the one model that spits out wetter solutions.  However, UKIE is pretty wet in IA thru HR 72 so has some credence. 

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Holy cow, the GEM is pretty heavy on the snowfall!

 

post-266-0-30505400-1447822242.png

 

Gets even crazier when you see the predicted lows over the snow cover Sunday night.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Maxim is pulling his hair out...j/k...Ha!  All in fun... B)

 

I think winds down the lake will effect accumulations for Lake/Cook counties...water temps in the low 50's will certainly keep things warmer lakeside.  Having the snow fall at night will help with accumulations.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

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The lake temperature is going to take nose dive this weekend. Should be able to knock off a few degrees by Friday night through upwelling and CAA.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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From Quad Cities Discussion: 

 

SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
DRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCH
BIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCE
FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANY
KIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THE
TROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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EURO sniffed out this storms potential a couple days ago, now it seems like other models following suit and this could end up becoming a "Clipper" type system on Steroids.  00z EURO has a tightly packed storm with 20-30mph winds blowing the snow sideways.  Seems like the track will be to close for comfort around here, I think IA/N IL/S WI are in the right spot currently (Chicago area questionable).  Ground temps/850's marginal in the city, however, any adjust to track this far out is speculation ATM.

 

Euro Ensemble/Control in pretty good agreement...

 

06z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111806/gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

 

 

 

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Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter. 

November 17,1989

Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot. 

while  December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6°  and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6"  most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe

 

Correct, but those were the toasty late 80's when things favored NMI. Us in SMI just snagged a piece of the action with the Nov bliz that dumped up to 2 feet in north central areas of the LP. Then, those same areas got another 2 foot bliz in January when that long thaw came crashing down. I actually was playing tourist in Traverse City area one weekend that January and there was still plenty of snow in the high country, less down at the lake front in town. Basically no snow back home in SEMI, but that was pretty common during that era. The other PDO (+/-) was controlling then and lots of Nino's were ruling the day. Between the early snowstorms (Oct 19th, Nov 15th, and some at the holidays) and the return of winter later in January, I actually got lots of snowmobiling in even in SEMI (Genesee Cnty) and still consider that one of the better seasons of that era for my region.

 

I will say that while we won't likely repeat 2013-14 on the cold  when mby had 81% of the days from Dec 8th to March 8th at or below 32*F, I don't think we are looking at 4+ week stretches of boring and warn like last December either. I'm thinking we will bounce up and down until late Dec, and have some really warm spells throughout winter that could/will lead to good chances of big storms brewing up. Should be strong contrasts and great bliz ingredient season with the STJ playing ball.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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