Just How Horrible Has January Been Since 1980?

[Phil]

I don't know, and I don't claim to know. Its interesting though.

Yeah, same downward trend(s) in Salt Lake City and Spokane WA as well.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/03E5EC62-EBDB-4955-8980-7FE8F7C91799_zpscklnqb0u.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93D35BDF-7700-4C32-A331-E9F882FE55F7_zpshar5zadf.gif

[Phil]

Meanwhile, cities like Green Bay, WI are smashing records.

 

I think we're going to have to look elsewhere, as the climate change/water vapor argument doesn't really explain any of these recent developments, at least not directly.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2A1186AA-D400-4736-92E2-286CED583119_zpsfcyp00td.gif

[wx_statman]

All three months have numerous records from that winter. January was relatively warmer, yes, I think I got confused because I don't see what I thought I saw earlier looking at the records. Anyway, I will look up whatever you posted before. Thanks

 

I know that in SLC, both December and February were the coldest on record. January wasn't quite as cold, but still colder than average. 

 

Both of those cold waves were historic for Utah. Woodruff set the state record low for December at -49F on the 12th, and Salt Lake City set its all time record low of -30F on 2/9. 

[Front Ranger]

And this part totally makes sense, given that the climate is changing. I don't think anyone would dispute that. The only debates that I've seen are about the cause of the changes. 

 

And what the changes actually entail, and what they will result in. Which you alluded to as well.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, same downward trend(s) in Salt Lake City and Spokane WA as well.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/03E5EC62-EBDB-4955-8980-7FE8F7C91799_zpscklnqb0u.gif

 

 

That's not actually much of a downtrend for Spokane.

[wx_statman]

Meanwhile, cities like Green Bay, WI are smashing records.

 

I think we're going to have to look elsewhere, as the climate change/water vapor argument doesn't really explain any of these recent developments, at least not directly.

 

That's the key. There are so many possible feedbacks in the climate system, a lot of which we don't fully understand. 

 

So the trends we're seeing at places like Green Bay and Grand Junction don't rule out anything. 

[Phil]

That's the key. There are so many possible feedbacks in the climate system, a lot of which we don't fully understand.

 

So the trends we're seeing at places like Green Bay and Grand Junction don't rule out anything.

I agree with this. That said, I don't think saying "it's climate change" is helpful, because in reality, this is a form of "climate change" in of itself.

 

As you noted, the climate system is incredibly complex and highly non-linear in nature. Abrupt, global scale swings in climate (in both directions) have been noted throughout the paleo records, some with possible explanations, some that correlate to potential forcings but lack physical explanations, and others that lack any physical explanations whatsoever. So it's difficult to do much except take note of the present day observations we have, and derive hypotheses thereafter.

[wx_statman]

I agree with this. That said, I don't think saying "it's climate change" is helpful, because in reality, this is a form of "climate change" in of itself.

 

As you noted, the climate system is incredibly complex and highly non-linear in nature. Abrupt, global scale swings in climate (in both directions) have been noted throughout the paleo records, some with possible explanations, some that correlate to potential forcings but lack physical explanations, and others that lack any physical explanations whatsoever. So it's difficult to do much except take note of the present day observations we have, and derive hypotheses thereafter.

 

Global warming/climate change discussions aren't really my cup of tea, but I'm sure you're aware of the effects of CO2 and other GHG's on global temperatures. Its not like we're completely clueless as a society. The scientific community obviously has a consensus on this issue. 

[Phil]

Global warming/climate change discussions aren't really my cup of tea, but I'm sure you're aware of the effects of CO2 and other GHG's on global temperatures. Its not like we're completely clueless as a society. The scientific community obviously has a consensus on this issue.

 

Well, we're talking about basic radiative transfer physics here (in regards to the initiatial forcing via increasing CO^2) before any systematic feedbacks.

 

The questions all involve the aforementioned feedbacks, whether they're of a constructive or destructive nature in relation to the initial forcing, and if/at what thresholds do these loops break and/or reinitiate/reorganize.

 

Based on available paleo data and available satellite derived spectral observations, I happen to believe (as do many scientists much smarter than myself) that the nature of the feedbacks is destructive, rather than constructive, and quite significantly so.

 

The problem is, when we model the atmosphere as we understand it, we almost always obtain a constructive feedback response, opposite of what the paleo data and most spectral observations suggest. So, we're missing something very important and honestly are nowhere close to figuring it out.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I agree with this. That said, I don't think saying "it's climate change" is helpful, because in reality, this is a form of "climate change" in of itself.

 

As you noted, the climate system is incredibly complex and highly non-linear in nature. Abrupt, global scale swings in climate (in both directions) have been noted throughout the paleo records, some with possible explanations, some that correlate to potential forcings but lack physical explanations, and others that lack any physical explanations whatsoever. So it's difficult to do much except take note of the present day observations we have, and derive hypotheses thereafter.

 

I am wondering if all the heavy pollution coming out of China and Asia over the last 20 years or so may be changing the patterns in the North Pacific in some way, contributing at least in part to the changes we have seen in the weather patterns in recent years?

[Phil]

I am wondering if all the heavy pollution coming out of China and Asia over the last 20 years or so may be changing the patterns in the North Pacific in some way, contributing at least in part to the changes we have seen in the weather patterns in recent years?

I'm very skeptical of that, honestly. I think longer term shifts in the nature of the tropical convection and associated circulation(s) are more to blame. As for what's causing these shifts, that's more debatable, IMO.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I'm very skeptical of that, honestly. I think longer term shifts in the nature of the tropical convection and associated circulation(s) are more to blame. As for what's causing these shifts, that's more debatable, IMO.

 

You could very well be right about that. Hopefully more research is carried out in the future to attempt to determine what exactly is causing the changes. It is also possible that we may never quite know even in the future.

[snow_wizard]

You could very well be right about that. Hopefully more research is carried out in the future to attempt to determine what exactly is causing the changes. It is also possible that we may never quite know even in the future.

 

Right now I would assume things will return (at least partway) to more traditional patterns. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Right now I would assume things will return (at least partway) to more traditional patterns. 

 

I certainly hope you are right and that these more traditional patterns can relieve this horrible drought that has been affecting CA for the last 5 years. Socal has had incredibly dry winters ever since 2013-14, and the majority of winters have been really dry since 2006-07 with 2006-07 being the absolute driest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going through some Silver Falls data this morning. The interesting thing I am noticing in the data is that really the only reason we've had some decently chilly Januaries in the past 10 years is due to cold zonal flow (Max high of 44 for the month in January 2008) or because we were in the cold belt of some extreme inversions like 2013.   Some other data sticks out though...

 

Since a low of 8 in January 1982, the MINIMUM January temp at Silver Falls has been 15 degrees, this has been reached on 4 occasions (1984, 93(2x), 2007). 

 

Silver Falls reached single digits in January in 

 

1982: 1

1980: 4

1979: 1 * (*missing data on other cold days)

1974: 4

1973: 3

1969: 1

1963: 2

1962: 4

1957: 4

1956: 1

1951: 2

1950: Missing

1949: 9

1947: 1

1943: 2

 

So in the period of record before 1982 (43 years) there were 39 recorded lows in the single digits or lower. This is with a couple days of the 1979 cold snap missing as well as all of January 1950 missing. Since 1982 the coldest low has been 15!

 

During the past 32 years there have been single digits or below in 

 

November: 1985

December: 1983, 1990, 1998, 2009, 2013

February: 1989 (Not to mention a low of 10 on 2/26/2011).

 

The overall frequency is down, but not as extreme as in January...Which used to have the most frequency by far. In fact the last 32 years have had more frequent November blasts. 

[wx_statman]

Its amazing how bad January has been pretty much everywhere you look in the West. I was just checking out Summit, a high altitude cold spot in western Montana. 

 

Their coldest January was -4.8F in 1950. 

 

Coldest in the 21st century? 17.4F in 2007. More than 22 degrees warmer! 

[Front Ranger]

Its amazing how bad January has been pretty much everywhere you look in the West. I was just checking out Summit, a high altitude cold spot in western Montana. 

 

Their coldest January was -4.8F in 1950. 

 

Coldest in the 21st century? 17.4F in 2007. More than 22 degrees warmer! 

 

Yeah, even as far east as here, January has far underperformed historically speaking the past 30+ years.

 

But, as is the case with many other western locations, November, December, and February have been a completely different story. Greatest November cold wave on record here Nov 2014, and greatest December cold wave in 1990, with several other top tier events outside January in recent years.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, even as far east as here, January has far underperformed historically speaking the past 30+ years.

 

But, as is the case with many other western locations, November, December, and February have been a completely different story. Greatest November cold wave on record here Nov 2014, and greatest December cold wave in 1990, with several other top tier events outside January in recent years.

 

Since 1990, neither November nor December have been smashing temperature records in the West either. 

 

This thread is about January, btw. 

[Front Ranger]

Since 1990, neither November nor December have been smashing temperature records in the West either. 

 

This thread is about January, btw. 

 

 

Ok.

 

And yes, November 2014 smashed all kind of records around here. Nov 2010 set records. Dec 1998 set records. Nov 1993 set records. Dec 2013 set records (by your own admission, a top tier event). Dec 2008 set records.

 

If any of those patterns had occurred in January, they would have broken the "January curse". I have no problem acknowledging January has sucked. Why do you have such a problem admitting Dec/Nov and to a lesser extent February haven't?

[wx_statman]

 

Ok.

 

And yes, November 2014 smashed all kind of records around here. Nov 2010 set records. Dec 1998 set records. Nov 1993 set records. Dec 2013 set records (by your own admission, a top tier event). Dec 2008 set records.

 

If any of those patterns had occurred in January, they would have broken the "January curse". I have no problem acknowledging January has sucked. Why do you have such a problem admitting Dec/Nov and to a lesser extent February haven't?

 

I'm talking about monthly averages here. Look at the context of the thread. 

[Deweydog]

I think it would have been better to call this thread "just how horrible have the temperature readings at SeaTac been in January since 1980?"

[Front Ranger]

I'm talking about monthly averages here. Look at the context of the thread. 

 

OLM's six coldest Decembers have come since 1978.

 

But is that really what people care about? Not really, they care more about memorable events. So I stand by what I said: if we saw a Dec 2008, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc pattern happen in January, that would be colder than any January event in the past 35 years, and therefore likely the coldest event in decades for many places, especially with snowfall.

 

Snowfall is always a crapshoot, and obviously affects memorable-ness quite a bit as well - see Dec 2009.

[BLI snowman]

OLM's six coldest Decembers have come since 1978.

 

But is that really what people care about? Not really, they care more about memorable events. So I stand by what I said: if we saw a Dec 2008, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc pattern happen in January, that would be colder than any January event in the past 35 years (snowfall is always a crapshoot, and obviously effects memorable-ness quite a bit as well - see Dec 2009), and therefore likely the coldest event in decades for many places, especially with snowfall.

You always seem eager to point this out as if it mitigates or balances the fact that our top historical winter month has turned into more of a pseudo-spring month in the last three and a half decades. Which is certainly a long enough period to not be considered a fluke.

 

Yes, there have been fringe winter events that have delivered in the past 35 years. But that doesn't even come close to making up for the overwhelming, truly monumental collapse of our best window for winter.

 

And the periods of our climate history where January consistently delivered, like say 1947-1982, also saw plenty of fringe winter airmasses that would have been way more impressive on January 1 than when they occurred. I just really don't see it as a necessary caveat to point out that the last 35 years have had some good events. But then we have literally had this exact same conversation before, and just like January, you come across as a broken record.

[ShawniganLake]

[James Jones]

image.jpeg

Interesting how the peak of winter has shifted earlier almost everywhere, though obviously our area has seen it change the most. Is there an explanation for why this happened?

 

Here's Seattle's change in averages:

 

http://i.imgur.com/uta45k6.png

[Front Ranger]

You always seem eager to point this out as if it mitigates or balances the fact that our top historical winter month has turned into more of a pseudo-spring month in the last three and a half decades. Which is certainly a long enough period to not be considered a fluke.

 

Yes, there have been fringe winter events that have delivered in the past 35 years. But that doesn't even come close to making up for the overwhelming, truly monumental collapse of our best window for winter.

 

And the periods of our climate history where January consistently delivered, like say 1947-1982, also saw plenty of fringe winter airmasses that would have been way more impressive on January 1 than when they occurred. I just really don't see it as a necessary caveat to point out that the last 35 years have had some good events. But then we have literally had this exact same conversation before, and just like January, you come across as a broken record.

 

I just find it funny how some of you are so offended by someone bringing up other sides of the coin. Almost a religious dogma element to things. How dare someone not bow down to the sacred January Curse - it's all that matters. Burn the heretic!

 

It's silly. I've acknowledged many times that January has been a monumental failure, and it definitely sucks because that's the month that holds the most potential. And I've never said that the other months have made up for January's shortcomings.

 

But it is noteworthy that Nov/Dec have actually seen an uptick in significant events/cold months over the same period that January has nosedived. That's all. No need to get so offended.

[Phil]

I highly recommend giving this a read if you're interested in the longer term changes to the climatological off-equator boreal winter circulations. This is the mechanical root for pretty much all of it.

 

http://www.clim-past.net/8/1169/2012/cp-8-1169-2012.pdf

[Phil]

image.jpeg

It's become even more stark since 1998, with Eastern North America now observing their coolest temperatures over 10 days later, and western North America observing them almost a month earlier vs 1951-1980.

[Phil]

Top graph is mean N/S Hadley Cell latitude, the bottom graph is mean Hadley Cell width.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BF001123-73A9-4BA9-BCFA-67FA27E2CBCE_zpsugoxhmw5.jpg

[Phil]

Now here's intensity..note the differential intensity ratios (relative to latitude and width) in the NH cell, which has been both strong and poleward biased since the late 1970s, versus weak/poleward biased in the late 19th/early 20th centuries and strong/contracted in the mid 20th century.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/44557873-03D1-4B48-8228-EB00D13CA848_zpsbc25yery.jpg

[Phil]

Since the late 1970s, the Hadley Cells have strengthened and broadened, manifesting as a strengthening and poleward migration of the zonal winds (jet) poleward of 30N/25S, and an underlying increase in the annular modes, PVs, and a reduction in the meridional fluxes.

[ShawniganLake]

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/brianwinter.jpg

[Phil]

These changes in the Walker/Hadley ratios are reflected in the IOD/ENSO relationship, too.

 

We haven't had a La Niña w/ a coherent -IOD cell since the 1970s, and 1975-76 (the last manifestation of this dynamic) featured a weakening -IOD cell weakening dominated by a powerful +PV/+NAM due to a weak BDC/O^3 transport.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/85841EC0-FED2-4088-8608-BB75D15F91C3_zpslucfk6pe.jpg

[Dan the Weatherman]

From looking at the Hadley Cell graphs above, the NH cell has been on average centered at a higher latitude since the 2000's and has been wider as well. No wonder Socal has been in such a drought since the 2011-12 season!

[Phil]

We haven't observed a Niña/-IOD under a +QBO w/ low solar+BDC since..at least the 1970s, really not since the 1950s.

 

Only now, circulation climatologies aren't what they were bac then. New ground here..right now, we have a monster -IOD ongoing.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3FA27486-8167-487E-B7E7-FD59D83386E3_zpsloxswdgh.gif

[snow_wizard]

 

I hate how early winter has been peaking here the past 30 years.

[Front Ranger]

These changes in the Walker/Hadley ratios are reflected in the IOD/ENSO relationship, too.

 

We haven't had a La Niña w/ a coherent -IOD cell since the 1970s, and 1975-76 (the last manifestation of this dynamic) featured a weakening -IOD cell weakening dominated by a powerful +PV/+NAM due to a weak BDC/O^3 transport.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/85841EC0-FED2-4088-8608-BB75D15F91C3_zpslucfk6pe.jpg

 

D**n, looks like every analog has a flaw, yet again!

[Phil]

From looking at the Hadley Cell graphs above, the NH cell has been on average centered at a higher latitude since the 2000's and has been wider as well. No wonder Socal has been in such a drought since the 2011-12 season!

Yup, it's just as much about the intensity (relative to the width and latitude) in that regard, too. Despite similar cell latitudes/widths in the late 1800s, the strength ratios were opposing.

[Phil]

D**n, looks like every analog has a flaw, yet again!

I can't find even one good analog right now. Irritating, yet fascinating at the same time.

[Front Ranger]

I hate how early winter has been peaking here the past 30 years.

 

Nailing the sun angle part, though. Hmm, maybe there is something to that...