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December Observations and Discussions


gosaints

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We will have to see how this December turns out.  Last year November here in West Michigan was cold and snowy the mean temp at GRR was 34.3° or -5.8° compared to where we stand as of today at a mean temp of 48.2° or +6.5° and last November GRR had a total of 31.0” compared to 3.3” so far this year. Then came last December. While the mean temp of 31.9° was only +2.7° The big item last year was the lack of snow here in December.  GRR only recorded 1.0” of snow last December and all of that came on the last two days. That 1.0” of snow was 20.9 below average. 

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It can't possibly be any worse than last year IMBY. My 2014-15 totals posted below. It certainly looks like a much more active pattern. Hopefully the cold will be strong enough when the moisture does arrive. Avg high starts at 35 and drops to 26. 

 

MONTH / AVG TEMP / SNOWFALL / GREATEST 24HR

NOV / 25.9 / 11" / 4.8"

DEC / 24.1 / 2.5" / 1.3"

JAN / 16.7 / 8.7" / 3"

FEB / 7.5 / 3.5" / 2"

MAR / 32.7 / 2.5" / 2"

TOTAL SNOW = 28.2"

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00z Euro looking a bit more interesting as we open up December, taking remnants of tropical storm Sandra along with an ULL feature out in the West that merge in the central Plains/Midwest that eventually cut up into the Lakes.  It's a bit better organized this run and produces a streak of 2-10" of snow from KS/NE/IA/WI/MN.

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East Asian Theory suggests a big storm somewhere in the central CONUS Dec 2-6th...this may be the storm the Euro model is trying to pin point as we open up December.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112506/gfs_mslpa_sd_wpac_6.png

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12z GFS may now be catching on to the East Asian Theory and showing a bigger storm system in the central CONUS around the time period of Dec 5th-7th.  Right on schedule.  Let's see how the models handle this energy or potential system.

 

A parade of Pacific systems should be the pattern this month.  Don't think it will be punishing cold to start the first half, but cold enough for wintry systems.

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We will have to see how this December turns out.  Last year November here in West Michigan was cold and snowy the mean temp at GRR was 34.3° or -5.8° compared to where we stand as of today at a mean temp of 48.2° or +6.5° and last November GRR had a total of 31.0” compared to 3.3” so far this year. Then came last December. While the mean temp of 31.9° was only +2.7° The big item last year was the lack of snow here in December.  GRR only recorded 1.0” of snow last December and all of that came on the last two days. That 1.0” of snow was 20.9 below average. 

 

And it was nice of Ma Nature to balance out last November's LES with an historic synoptic system. I've almost doubled my November snowfall of last year. Just goes to show that "temp departures be d*mned" if it wants to snow, it'll snow. I too had only 1.2" last December, so the only way to go is up!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well Paul Pastelok who is the long range guesser at Acculess weather came out with his updated winter guess. And his ideas with model and analog help point to towards a typical El Nino winter. That means warmer with less snow for Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois. But with a better snow fall chances towards Kansans. Nebraska and Iowa. Will have to see how this plays out.  Anyone have the latest guess from Joe B at weather bell?        

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I think it will be overall milder than normal especially for December and January. Probably colder than normal late winter and the el Niño effects wane.

It's looking like a wetter than average winter so far...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well, Im already at 35% of my annual snowfall for the season and I'm sure a lot of others are as well, so I think we're off to a good start.

Some are sure. Some places are also miles behind. Never said it wouldnt snow. Said it was gonna be warm. And have been.hammered on for saying.it

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JMA Weeklies show above normal temps to continue through at least the first 2 weeks of December.  A strong +AO/NAO signal is shown below and floods the U.S. with above normal temps.  The only part of the country that may see below normal temps would be the south/central states as there may be systems traversing that part of the region.

 

Week 3 & 4 mean, the model is indicating a slight signal that the pattern near the Arctic may begin to change sometime around mid month, but its not overwhelming.  The ridging may begin to shift farther north at this time so its something to watch as the southern jet cuts underneath down near the southern U.S.  

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GFS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

Euro...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Both models expect the MJO to head into the Circle of Death resulting in minimal effects as far as the MJO goes.

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Whoever gets hit by the snowstorm this coming weekend, they stand a good chance to stay below freezing at least through the first week of December.  12z Euro keeps temps in the 20's/low 30's over the deep snow pack in the Plains if that should verify.

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I have been noticing the GEFS are starting to show signs of a west-based Greenland Block trying to develop by Day 12-15.  To back that up some more, the new Euro Weeklies that just came in tonight are showing the same thing around mid month and continuing through Christmas.  The Rockies/Plains/Midwest are seeded with negative temp anomalies and lots of storminess.  Ridging seems to develop in the Pacific of similar fashion that seeded Siberian air into AK/Western Canada that seeped into the west/central states over the past 7-10 days.

 

The west/central CONUS looks to be the epicenter of storminess this month if the Euro Weeklies are correct.  What's interesting is the CFSv2 has been showing a similar look also.  Even though the month may start out warm in some parts, I think it will turn the corner later mid month.

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I have been noticing the GEFS are starting to show signs of a west-based Greenland Block trying to develop by Day 12-15.  To back that up some more, the new Euro Weeklies that just came in tonight are showing the same thing around mid month and continuing through Christmas.  The Rockies/Plains/Midwest are seeded with negative temp anomalies and lots of storminess.  Ridging seems to develop in the Pacific of similar fashion that seeded Siberian air into AK/Western Canada that seeped into the west/central states over the past 7-10 days.

 

The west/central CONUS looks to be the epicenter of storminess this month if the Euro Weeklies are correct.  What's interesting is the CFSv2 has been showing a similar look also.  Even though the month may start out warm in some parts, I think it will turn the corner later mid month.

 

3/4 of the individual ensemble maps look really nice for Chicago Tom. That's usually a pretty good indicator at this range, and I'd be optimistic if that were mby.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting trends in CFSv2 at 700mb for December that look very similar to the CanSIPS 500mb pattern.  Notice where the model is seeing the trough extending from the Bearing Sea down the NW NAMER coastline into the southern Plains.  The CFSv2/CanSIPS both see major ridging in central/eastern Canada which is a good signal for storms to cut underneath the ridge into the west/central states while there is some connection to arctic air with this type of pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20151127.201512.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

 

 

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I've been trying to figure out the LRC pattern and I'm seeing the pattern beginning to show up in the models.  Off the top of my head, I think the cycle length is centered around 47-50 days, +/- a couple days.  Having said that, I see both GEFS/EPS cycling a big part of this year's LRC around the 12th/13th of December.  There was a deep trough that formed out in the west on Oct 19th-22nd that ejected a cut-off low in the Plains.   Well, 12z EPS/Control and even today's 18z GFS are picking up on a deep trough digging into the W/SW region and forming a storm in the Plains.  I know that is way out in Fantasy Land, but this was an important feature in this year's LRC.  Euro Weeklies also had a deep trough in the west/central states during this period.

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once again, I'd write this month off if you're looking for cold/wintry weather. Feb might be a different story though.

What exactly makes you think this? I'm just curious, you always seem to have input that contradicts what people posts, and I want to see what you're seeing so I can rationalize it in comparison to the others.

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What exactly makes you think this? I'm just curious, you always seem to have input that contradicts what people posts, and I want to see what you're seeing so I can rationalize it in comparison to the others.

There's absolutely nothing that would support a cold and snowy pattern for the first half of the month at least (and probably the entire month). Also doesn't help that the arctic will be completely cut off... No cold air source for any storms that do happen to develop this month. Many others would agree with me on this too.

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As of today Grand Rapids, MI is now at +6.3° (47.0°) for the month of November. With 3 days to go we will end up the month well above average with a good shot of being in the top 5 (with at top 3 very much in play)  warmest Novembers on record here in GR (BTW the warmest November here in GR is 47.6° in 1931 with 46.8° in 2001 in 2nd place). Looking ahead the first 3 weeks of December also now look to be very warm and at this point dryer then average so not much snow is expected at least up to Christmas.

Looking at the top 5 recent strong to very strong El Nino winters. Ever one had at least one winter month (December to March) that was either well above or below average temp wise (note most of the recent strong El Nino winters have not had a warm fall) here is a brief break down of the “extreme” months in each 57/58 February -6.5°, 65/66 December +4.3° January -5.3° 72/73  February  -4.0°  March +6.3°,  82/83  December +7.0°  February +4.1,   97/98  January +5.7°  February 7.3°. With November looking to be around +5° here at GR one has to wonder just how warm December 2015 will be and what will be the “extreme” month this winter (if the trend continues)

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GEFS Para show a hemispheric pattern change come mid month.  Will this be the onset of a wild finish to the month???

 

Practically all global models are picking up a huge ridge in NE Canada and a (west-based) Greenland Block mid month along with ridging in the NE Pacific.  

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