December Observations and Discussions

[CentralNebWeather]

We have had a wild ride so far.  Not a lot to show for it, however.  Lots of watches, advisories and warnings during Oct. and November,  and the ground is covered in snow right now so we shouldn't complain.

[Tom]

We have had a wild ride so far.  Not a lot to show for it, however.  Lots of watches, advisories and warnings during Oct. and November,  and the ground is covered in snow right now so we shouldn't complain.

That's what I'm talking about.  The pattern looks to load up Day 10-15 out in the west/central CONUS and according to Jim Flower's 30-day cycle and the LRC, there are 2 or 3 dynamic storm systems that traversed the region that catch my attn looking forward.  As long as we get some blocking around this time around, there will be some vigorous snowstorms to track, IMO.

 

12z EPS Day 10-15 mean 500mb flow...that's as good as it can get to see a SW Flow with a SE ridge.  Notice the blocking starting to evolve over the pole connecting across into Siberia.  Just like the CFSv2 weeklies have been showing for Week 3 & 4.  The pattern is cycling through and by then, we will be in mid December which I'm almost certain there will be more cold air around.

[OKwx2k4]

That's a beautiful pattern if I could get that low to suppress further south.

[Geos]

I noticed on the 12z GFS a west based Greenland block forms. A ridge then quickly pops up near SE Alaska.

 

[james1976]

18z GFS fantasy land looks fun. Maybe starting to sniff out a pattern change after the 10th(ish).

[Tom]

I noticed on the 12z GFS a west based Greenland block forms. A ridge then quickly pops up near SE Alaska.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015113012/gfs_z500a_nhem_46.png

Yippers, not only does the GFS, but the GGEM/EURO confirm as well.  The pattern is going to get real busy after this warm spell.  I guess, enjoy it while it lasts.

[CentralNebWeather]

Make it through these 2 weeks and let the games begin. Fantasy 18z gfs is wonderful- bowling ball type Colorado low. See how this develops in the coming week

[westMJim]

As we head into December here is some information and snow fall amounts so far for Northern lower Michigan along with some info from Grand Rapids.

 While some locations here in the Midwest, great lakes area have gotten a lot of snow others areas are will behind in the snow fall department. Here in Grand Rapids we will end November 2015 with 3.5” (7.5”) is average for November here.  And in all of norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been well below average for this month,

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

Also at this time it looks like this will be the 3^rd warmest November in recorded history here in Grand Rapids. (note the official reporting station has moved 3 times over the years) I will post tomorrow if indeed GR ends up with the 3^rd warmest November 

[GDR]

[Maxim]

Euro weeklies, as I expected, no Arctic air to be seen.

[Geos]

Still possible to get snow in a mild pattern.

 

Promise lies in that week before Christmas.

 

 

[winterfreak]

What a wild last week of weather we've had here. Very active storm track around these parts but just an overall lack of cold air as of now. Hopefully that changes toward the latter half of the month.

[Tom]

Euro weeklies, as I expected, no Arctic air to be seen.

Beyond Day10 till day 30, you can def see the pattern is changing and the west/central CONUS turns colder/stormier.  I don't know how long you have been reading and understanding the Euro Weeklies, but I've had access to them on WxBell for 3 years now and understand the models bias and what to look out for.  When I see ridges pulling up into northern Canada and a trough near the Bearing Sea(Aleutian Low), that is a clear signal for arctic air.  As you get closer to the period, you will see the colder look, esp by mid month.  Just my 2 cents.

[Tom]

Does anyone remember the big 2-3 day Great Lakes storm that was a massive wind/precip producer from 11/11 - 11/13???  30-day cycle just showed up on the 00z GFS Dec 12-14th...right on schedule.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, when that storm hit, we both talked about how if it cycled through, it would bring on a multi-day LES even in MI.  00z GFS just showed it.  Gulf energy phasing with northern piece...bombing out.  Not getting excited, but this was a main feature in this cycle period.

[westMJim]

Welcome to December.  Now that November is in the record books it can now be said the November 2015 will be Grand Rapids, MI 3^rd warmest on record. The month ended with an unofficial mean temp of 45.5° and that is +5.4°

[westMJim]

Yes,  here in Grand Rapids Michigan November 2015 ended up being the 3^rd warmest in recorded history.  With only 1931 and 2001 having been warmer.  In looking back at some of the “warm” November s and how those winters were.  1931.  December 1931 +6.6°  with 7.1” of snow fall (21.9” is average) January 1932 +9.8° 3.2” of snow fall (20.8” average) February 1932 +5.0° with 5.2” of snow (14.8” average) now here comes the kicker March 1932 -7.2° with 25.3” of snow.  Now for the 2^nd warmest November  2001  December +4.7°  53.9” of snow (yes that’s right and that fell between the 23 and 31^st)  January 2002 +5.8° with 17.5” of snow February +3.8° with 8.7” of snow. And March -4.7° with 22.6” of snow.  And for the old 3^rd warmest November 1909  December -5.2° with 25.2” of snow. January 1910  -0.1° with 12.1” of snow. February 1910 -4.0° with 4.9” of snow and March +9.4° and 0” of snow.  2001 was a weak La Nina year.  1931/32 may have been a El Nino winter and not sure about 1909/10 but as you can see (with a very small sample size) there is a chance this winter could be warm with lots of ups and downs.

[james1976]

If there is a 30 day cycle and the LRC is 45-47 days, how does this work out?

[NEJeremy]

If there is a 30 day cycle and the LRC is 45-47 days, how does this work out?

The 30 day cycle is something that Jim Flowers, a local met here uses. I'm not sure how he came up with a 30 day cycle vs the LRC length, but so far the 30 day has been pretty accurate.

[centralweather44]

I can attest to the 30 day cycle. I do snow removal and it always seems like we push snow or have an event every 30 days. I went back to look at snow invoices and this is true for the past 4 years.

[Tom]

The 30 day cycle is something that Jim Flowers, a local met here uses. I'm not sure how he came up with a 30 day cycle vs the LRC length, but so far the 30 day has been pretty accurate.

Yup, this year's 30-day cycle seems to be spot on...+/- a day or 2...I wonder what Gary Lezak will say in his Winter Outllook that is coming out this week.  I'm putting a stab at it and think it will be centered around 45-47 days.

[Tom]

Changes at 30mb over the N PAC have been brewing and there usually is a 2-4 week lag in the atmospheric response once the warming starts.  Below you will notice the warming began roughly mid November and has been growing significantly.  Global models have already picked up on the huge ridge that is forecast to develop by the 10th of this month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

GEFS Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015120106/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

Day 11...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015120106/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

 

Day 13...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015120106/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_58.png

 

That is a pattern that will unload Siberian Air into North America and eventually spread into the west/central CONUS.  The location of this ridge that backs even farther off the western North American coastline suggests the main trough to be centered in the west/central CONUS and NOT on the East Coast.  There are clear signals a -PNA pattern should develop mid month and hold itself.  Snow geese in the East are not going to be happy.  I talked about this before the winter began as to how important it will be where in fact this ridge develops in the NE PAC.  If it hugged the coast, it would have a trough farther east...if it backed off the NW NAMER coast (like it is showing it will mid & late month), the main trough is centered in the west/central CONUS.

 

00z EPS/GGEM are all suggesting the similar type of ridge to form in the N PAC.  This should evolve to a wild pattern if your a fan of snow!

[gosaints]

snow and melting snow. 2 favorite things in winter

[Tom]

Here's a good illustration of where the storm track has been centered over the last 30 day's.  Looks like the forecast over the next 30 days suggest a repeat performance.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Screen-Shot-2015-12-01-at-7.33.40-AM-598x480.png

 

 

Below is the total precip accumulated over the last 30 days....

 

 

In today's blog from Gary Lezak, he clearly believes this will be a dominant Long-Term Long-Wave trough over the coming winter season...

 

 

 

This map shows the rainfall over the 30 days ending November 28th, so it did not include the past two days.  As you can see 200 to 400 percent of the average precipitation has just fallen from northern Mexico to southern Canada. This is a strong indication that a long term long-wave trough has set up over the Rocky Mountain states.  According to the LRC, these long term long-wave troughs are the main features that will dominate the pattern from now through winter, the next spring and deep into summer.

 

 

Having said that, the November CanSIPS model run for the month of December looks very good overall, it may be a bit more centered west with the main trough.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

It pretty much nailed the November outlook that was issued back on October 1st...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

So for its October 1st issued November model forecast it had this for precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015100100/cansips_apcpna_month_namer_1.png

 

 

 

Now, you can make your own conclusions on where this pattern is heading.  I'm just showing the facts and forecasts that are being projected.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

That 1st image (mean storm track) not showing. Would like to see pls. Thx!

[jaster220]

As we head into December here is some information and snow fall amounts so far for Northern lower Michigan along with some info from Grand Rapids.

 While some locations here in the Midwest, great lakes area have gotten a lot of snow others areas are will behind in the snow fall department. Here in Grand Rapids we will end November 2015 with 3.5” (7.5”) is average for November here.  And in all of norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been well below average for this month,

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

Also at this time it looks like this will be the 3^rd warmest November in recorded history here in Grand Rapids. (note the official reporting station has moved 3 times over the years) I will post tomorrow if indeed GR ends up with the 3^rd warmest November 

 

Umm..not entirely true on the bolded. TC is only off 18%, and Petoskey 27%. The others may be well below. I take well below to be like less than 50% when you're talking one (early season) month.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

That 1st image (mean storm track) not showing. Would like to see pls. Thx!

I based it off of the Percentage of Avg Precip...

[james1976]

12z GFS with 2 significant storms hitting the midwest mid-month, one of which is a 976mb Blizzard. Once again, we are off in fantasy land, but it locks up with the cycling and all the things that Tom has been presenting.

[jaster220]

I based it off of the Percentage of Avg Precip...

 

Would be nice to bump a state or so east. SMI below normal during a "wet period"

[jaster220]

12z GFS with 2 significant storms hitting the midwest mid-month, one of which is a 976mb Blizzard. Once again, we are off in fantasy land, but it locks up with the cycling and all the things that Tom has been presenting.

 

True, and the last time it flashed a sub-980mb storm, we ended up getting something big just a few days later than what it showed (21st vs 18th for SMI)

[OKwx2k4]

Extended euro ensembles have this as well.

[Tom]

Nice read from WxBell that a former NWS Met wrote regarding the snow cover on December 1st.  Isn't it ironic that after such a warm November, there is so much snow on the ground???

 

 

Out meteorologist friend, Mike Mogil, formerly with NWS forwarded this factoid you might find interesting relative to US snowcover from NOHRSC.

Although snowfall coverage analyses at the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) have only been generated since 2003, it is interesting to note that U.S. snow cover on the morning of Dec. 1, 2015 is the highest on record for this day of the year. 38.7% of the U.S. (including a small part of southwestern Canada) is currently snow-covered. This tops the previous record of 36.5% set on this day in 2006 and the now, third-placed, 35.0% set on this day in 2005. I recognize and acknowledge that 13 years is a very short period of record. I also realize that snow cover today may bear no semblance to snow cover a month from now and may not be related to snow cover globally. And I try not to use single events to proclaim a climate change or a non-climate change conclusion. Here, we are looking at an accumulation of many events.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/images/Fig-001-US-snow-cover-151201.png

 

[Tom]

There is no snow here.

Oh well...I'm sure the way they measured snow cover back when they first started has been consistent with the way they measure it today.

[Geos]

ABC news calling for 0.5-1" of snow tomorrow morning. Actually looks like it could start tonight yet. 

 

 

I got a feeling the wet streak will continue this month and probably for the rest of the winter. 

[gosaints]

Oh well...I'm sure the way they measured snow cover back when they first started has been consistent with the way they measure it today.

Lol you can.drive 45 miles to the wisonsin border and see no snow. In 10 days will we set a lack of.snow cover record?

[Tom]

Lol you can.drive 45 miles to the wisonsin border and see no snow. In 10 days will we set a lack of.snow cover record?

I think you missed the purpose of the post.  It was intended to show the Ironic nature of the current snow cover after all the warmth we have seen.  Do you think I'd post a map to show a lack of snow cover in a warm pattern???  Simple answer...No...then it won't be Ironic!  Ha

[gosaints]

I think you missed the purpose of the post. It was intended to show the Ironic nature of the current snow cover after all the warmth we have seen. Do you think I'd post a map to show a lack of snow cover in a warm pattern??? Simple answer...No...then it won't be Ironic! Ha

Lol would you a snow map in a cold pattern?

[westMJim]

This fall in west Michigan was the second warmest fall in recorded history with only 1931 being warmer.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/Fall2015ClimateStatistics

and then the winter of 1931/32 was a very mild winter here as well with January being the current warmest January on record here in Grand Rapids.

[Tom]

Lol would you a snow map in a cold pattern?

SMH...

[centralweather44]

There are a few posters just trying to get a rise of people. It's time to move on. We get it. You believe it is going to be warm, others cold. Big deal and move on. This is just for fun so lets just relax.