Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 With the holiday travel season upon us, what will Mother Nature bring weather wise??? A developing system is poised to target the central states and bring a wide variety of inclement weather a day after the busiest travel day of the year. Who will see snow, freezing rain, flooding rains??? Let's discuss... 12z Euro Ensembles still seeing a streak of snow from NE/IA/S MN/WI...its been trending south and expanding. I believe the model is getting the right idea with a banana type HP to the N/NW of the frontal boundary which will seed cold air into this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Tom, my temperatures have been trending colder and colder. The warm-up that was expected will not end up being a "Warm Up". Very curious to see if this trend continues. As for this storm, the Plains, midwest look look pretty good for some snow. Lower lakes too close for comfort. We will see. Btw, its so beautiful outside with all of that snowcover and cold temperatures. Had a few snowshowers today flying around, but no accumulations. Side streets are very icy and also sidewalks too. I truly like the way this winter started off. Witha Bang!!! How is it in your neck of the woods? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 I get flooding rains. :-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 Tom, my temperatures have been trending colder and colder. The warm-up that was expected will not end up being a "Warm Up". Very curious to see if this trend continues. As for this storm, the Plains, midwest look look pretty good for some snow. Lower lakes too close for comfort. We will see. Btw, its so beautiful outside with all of that snowcover and cold temperatures. Had a few snowshowers today flying around, but no accumulations. Side streets are very icy and also sidewalks too. I truly like the way this winter started off. Witha Bang!!! How is it in your neck of the woods?I'm not expecting much wintry precip around here for this one, maybe a brief snow shower at the tail end of it. If the snow melts, it's ok, I guess that means I can put up the rest of my lights! The day started off cloudy and chilly, snow cover looking good, although, it's starting to take a beating with a 38F temp and the sun out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 23, 2015 Report Share Posted November 23, 2015 It has been a mostly cloudy day here with some light snow had .2" of new snow here this AM. The sun did come out late this after noon and with the sun out it did make it up to 36° but its now down to 29° with clear skies. The official forecast for Thanksgiving for GR is for rain and mild temps and then near average temps for the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Hmmm, 00z GFS showing decent snow inKS/ NE/IA/WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112400/gfs_asnow_ncus_15.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 00z NAM lookin' snowy for N/C Wisco... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112400/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Could be a travel headache if the freezing rain comes to fruition across Central IA--- 00Z GFS for KDSMTHU 18Z 26-NOV 1.8 3.6 1029 89 99 0.45 573 550 FRI 00Z 27-NOV -0.4 -0.1 1032 93 98 0.44 572 547 FRI 06Z 27-NOV -1.6 -1.6 1036 81 84 0.13 573 545 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 For OMA--THU 18Z 26-NOV -1.3 -0.5 1032 92 99 0.19 572 546 FRI 00Z 27-NOV -1.8 -2.3 1034 92 94 0.23 571 544 FRI 06Z 27-NOV -3.4 -2.2 1037 84 82 0.04 572 543 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 For OMA--THU 18Z 26-NOV -1.3 -0.5 1032 92 99 0.19 572 546 FRI 00Z 27-NOV -1.8 -2.3 1034 92 94 0.23 571 544 FRI 06Z 27-NOV -3.4 -2.2 1037 84 82 0.04 572 543Yikes. That could really put a damper on black friday. I'll be in Rochester Minnesota, considering leaving tomorrow to avoid any travel issues. Cannot imagine driving through DSM again with freezing rain. I believe back in 2008 that occurred, and it was by far the worst drive of my life. Even though it looks like the day of Thanksgiving, still not going to risk anything! EDIT: Where all the Nebraska peeps at? GFS is showing almost a half foot for OMA/LNK, you guys are usually all over this like flies on s***. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm of the "believe it when I see it" mindset right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 with regards to the 00z gfs, that maps assumes the 10:1 ratio, all other maps, including instant weather maps, show much less snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Models starting to get a better handle with this system. Looks like an icy event on tap for C KS/C IA with a bit of snow to the north. Ice accumulations of up to .25" are possible. Not much snow with this first piece...might end up being a nowcast event to see when/where the switch over happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Models starting to get a better handle with this system. Looks like an icy event on tap for C KS/C IA with a bit of snow to the north. Ice accumulations of up to .25" are possible. Not much snow with this first piece...might end up being a nowcast event to see when/where the switch over happens.This makes much more sense than that 0Z run showing 6". Thus the lack of excitement 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 it would be awesome if the GGEM is correct, although at this point, its highly unlikely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 12z Euro shows a band of snow in C NE/N IA/S MN/ N WI A nice doughnut hole over N IL would alleviate some of the flooding concerns over the heavy snow pack... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 None of the local weather mets are talking snow. They are talking freezing rain though. Temps right on the border once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Very little talk of snow here in central Nebraska. Some of the models look promising but not forecasted yet. Could change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Uh oh- it just got real! NWS has issued a winter storm watch here for turkey day with the expected mix of freezing rain and snow. Currently calling for .1-.25" of freezing rain and an inch or two of snow. Glad I am traveling on Wednesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2015 Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Winter weather advisory central Nebraska. Ugly travel. Not leaving the man cave this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Wow, it's sure quiet here with a winter storm watch! .3 possible of ice. Tom, do you think there will be much snow or is the warm air to shallow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Wow, it's sure quiet here with a winter storm watch! .3 possible of ice. Tom, do you think there will be much snow or is the warm air to shallow?These type of frontal systems are hard to forecast...in this particular situation, I'd imagine the northern edge to squeeze out a couple inches of snow. The primary threat here is the icing and heavy rainfall. It's unfortunate a SLP doesn't form so that it can wrap in the cold air that is obviously available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Goodness we are going to get a lot of rain around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 These type of frontal systems are hard to forecast...in this particular situation, I'd imagine the northern edge to squeeze out a couple inches of snow. The primary threat here is the icing and heavy rainfall. It's unfortunate a SLP doesn't form so that it can wrap in the cold air that is obviously available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Thanks! Keep the updates coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Winter storm watch because of freezing rain doesn't have to many people exciting. Rain elsewhere has others disappointed. The past day or two has been dead in here. This place lights up when the lakes and upper Midwest has snow forecasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Because many of the constant posters here are in the Midwest/Lakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 Very interesting, I'm not gonna lie I was pretty much expecting nothing major but things now look horrid for turkey day. Gonna be a very close call between freezing rain, sleet or snow. I'm hoping we see mostly sleet and snow more than freezing rain. I have to travel back and forth from David city and Shelby. Add the fact I have my big team scrimmage Friday morning and that has me very worried; nothing worse than high school kids trying to get to practice in freezing rain! We all hate sleet but.....give us that rather than freezing rain!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 00z NAM: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 00z NAM: http://i.imgur.com/DTDAr6m.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/ea32cdF.pngI like to see that, 18z nam had most of the precip freezing rain, I would gladly take that.....granted temp profiles will be the biggest player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 12z nam continues to show freezing rain then sleet/snow mix here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 06z NAM...and 06z GFS...quite the difference in the placement of the snow band... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 NAM with great amounts as well. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 I like the GFS in that it places a heavier band right over me in Central Nebraska. Local METS are really hitting this storm hard with watches and advisories and talk of possible upgrades to warnings for Freezing Rain then Sleet before switching to snow. They are also really advising people to leave for their Thanksgiving destinations today instead of tomorrow as roads will be getting worse and worse as Thanksgiving day progresses. Be safe out there. We had planned to go to Kearney (30 miles away) to have Thanksgiving dinner but we have decided to stay home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 50 degrees here this morning. It will take awhile for the main roads to ice up with the warmth we've had this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 06z RGEM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 I like that strip of snow's location. Several models are painting a thin strip of accumulation snows across Central Nebraska but hard to pinpoint where the cold air will be well established. It might be a continually changing situation in the next 36 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2015 Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 NWS Potential Snow amounts for Thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2015 12z RGEM...this model pretty much nailed the last storm 24-36 hours out... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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