Thanksgiving Day - Black Friday Storm System

[Tom]

With the holiday travel season upon us, what will Mother Nature bring weather wise???  A developing system is poised to target the central states and bring a wide variety of inclement weather a day after the busiest travel day of the year.  Who will see snow, freezing rain, flooding rains???  Let's discuss...

 

12z Euro Ensembles still seeing a streak of snow from NE/IA/S MN/WI...its been trending south and expanding.  I believe the model is getting the right idea with a banana type HP to the N/NW of the frontal boundary which will seed cold air into this system.

[Niko]

Tom, my temperatures have been trending colder and colder. The warm-up that was expected will not end up being a "Warm Up". Very curious to see if this trend continues.

 

As for this storm, the Plains, midwest look look pretty good for some snow. Lower lakes too close for comfort. We will see.

 

Btw, its so beautiful outside with all of that snowcover and cold temperatures. Had a few snowshowers today flying around, but no accumulations. Side streets are very icy and also sidewalks too. I truly like the way this winter started off. Witha Bang!!!

 

How is it in your neck of the woods?

[OKwx2k4]

I get flooding rains. :-(

[Tom]

Tom, my temperatures have been trending colder and colder. The warm-up that was expected will not end up being a "Warm Up". Very curious to see if this trend continues.

 

As for this storm, the Plains, midwest look look pretty good for some snow. Lower lakes too close for comfort. We will see.

 

Btw, its so beautiful outside with all of that snowcover and cold temperatures. Had a few snowshowers today flying around, but no accumulations. Side streets are very icy and also sidewalks too. I truly like the way this winter started off. Witha Bang!!!

 

How is it in your neck of the woods?

I'm not expecting much wintry precip around here for this one, maybe a brief snow shower at the tail end of it.  If the snow melts, it's ok, I guess that means I can put up the rest of my lights!

 

The day started off cloudy and chilly, snow cover looking good, although, it's starting to take a beating with a 38F temp and the sun out.

[westMJim]

It has been a mostly cloudy day here with some light snow had .2" of new snow here this AM. The sun did come out late this after noon and with the sun out it did make it up to 36° but its now down to 29° with clear skies. The official forecast for Thanksgiving for GR is for rain and mild temps and then near average temps for the weekend. 

[Tom]

Hmmm, 00z GFS showing decent snow inKS/ NE/IA/WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112400/gfs_asnow_ncus_15.png

[Tom]

00z NAM lookin' snowy for N/C Wisco...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112400/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

[Grizzcoat]

Could be a travel headache if the freezing rain comes to fruition across Central IA---  00Z GFS for KDSM

THU 18Z 26-NOV   1.8     3.6    1029      89      99    0.45     573     550    FRI 00Z 27-NOV  -0.4    -0.1    1032      93      98    0.44     572     547    FRI 06Z 27-NOV  -1.6    -1.6    1036      81      84    0.13     573     545 

[Grizzcoat]

For OMA--

THU 18Z 26-NOV  -1.3    -0.5    1032      92      99    0.19     572     546    FRI 00Z 27-NOV  -1.8    -2.3    1034      92      94    0.23     571     544    FRI 06Z 27-NOV  -3.4    -2.2    1037      84      82    0.04     572     543

[Jaycee]

 

For OMA--

THU 18Z 26-NOV  -1.3    -0.5    1032      92      99    0.19     572     546    FRI 00Z 27-NOV  -1.8    -2.3    1034      92      94    0.23     571     544    FRI 06Z 27-NOV  -3.4    -2.2    1037      84      82    0.04     572     543

Yikes. That could really put a damper on black friday. I'll be in Rochester Minnesota, considering leaving tomorrow to avoid any travel issues. Cannot imagine driving through DSM again with freezing rain. I believe back in 2008 that occurred, and it was by far the worst drive of my life. Even though it looks like the day of Thanksgiving, still not going to risk anything!

 

EDIT: Where all the Nebraska peeps at? GFS is showing almost a half foot for OMA/LNK, you guys are usually all over this like flies on s***. 

[educatorjen]

I'm of the "believe it when I see it" mindset right now.

[jcwxguy]

with regards to the 00z gfs, that maps assumes the 10:1 ratio, all other maps, including instant weather maps, show much less snow.

[Tom]

Models starting to get a better handle with this system.  Looks like an icy event on tap for C KS/C IA with a bit of snow to the north.  Ice accumulations of up to .25" are possible.

 

Not much snow with this first piece...might end up being a nowcast event to see when/where the switch over happens.

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Models starting to get a better handle with this system.  Looks like an icy event on tap for C KS/C IA with a bit of snow to the north.  Ice accumulations of up to .25" are possible.

 

Not much snow with this first piece...might end up being a nowcast event to see when/where the switch over happens.

This makes much more sense than that 0Z run showing 6". Thus the lack of excitement

[jcwxguy]

it would be awesome if the GGEM is correct, although at this point, its highly unlikely 

[Tom]

12z Euro shows a band of snow in C NE/N IA/S MN/ N WI

 

 

A nice doughnut hole over N IL would alleviate some of the flooding concerns over the heavy snow pack...

[GDR]

[centralweather44]

None of the local weather mets are talking snow. They are talking freezing rain though. Temps right on the border once again.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very little talk of snow here in central Nebraska. Some of the models look promising but not forecasted yet. Could change.

[NEJeremy]

Uh oh- it just got real! NWS has issued a winter storm watch here for turkey day with the expected mix of freezing rain and snow. Currently calling for .1-.25" of freezing rain and an inch or two of snow. Glad I am traveling on Wednesday!

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter weather advisory central Nebraska. Ugly travel. Not leaving the man cave this weekend

[Guest Snowball]

Wow, it's sure quiet here with a winter storm watch! .3 possible of ice. Tom, do you think there will be much snow or is the warm air to shallow?

[Tom]

Wow, it's sure quiet here with a winter storm watch! .3 possible of ice. Tom, do you think there will be much snow or is the warm air to shallow?

These type of frontal systems are hard to forecast...in this particular situation, I'd imagine the northern edge to squeeze out a couple inches of snow.  The primary threat here is the icing and heavy rainfall.  It's unfortunate a SLP doesn't form so that it can wrap in the cold air that is obviously available.

[East Dubzz]

Goodness we are going to get a lot of rain around here.

[Guest Snowball]

These type of frontal systems are hard to forecast...in this particular situation, I'd imagine the northern edge to squeeze out a couple inches of snow. The primary threat here is the icing and heavy rainfall. It's unfortunate a SLP doesn't form so that it can wrap in the cold air that is obviously available.

[Guest Snowball]

Thanks! Keep the updates coming!

[centralweather44]

Winter storm watch because of freezing rain doesn't have to many people exciting. Rain elsewhere has others disappointed. The past day or two has been dead in here. This place lights up when the lakes and upper Midwest has snow forecasted.

[East Dubzz]

Because many of the constant posters here are in the Midwest/Lakes

[gabel23]

Very interesting, I'm not gonna lie I was pretty much expecting nothing major but things now look horrid for turkey day. Gonna be a very close call between freezing rain, sleet or snow. I'm hoping we see mostly sleet and snow more than freezing rain. I have to travel back and forth from David city and Shelby. Add the fact I have my big team scrimmage Friday morning and that has me very worried; nothing worse than high school kids trying to get to practice in freezing rain! We all hate sleet but.....give us that rather than freezing rain!!

[East Dubzz]

00z NAM:

 

[gabel23]

00z NAM:

 

http://i.imgur.com/DTDAr6m.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/ea32cdF.png

I like to see that, 18z nam had most of the precip freezing rain, I would gladly take that.....granted temp profiles will be the biggest player.

[jcwxguy]

12z nam continues to show freezing rain then sleet/snow mix here 

[Tom]

06z NAM...and 06z GFS...quite the difference in the placement of the snow band...

 

 

 

 

[Snowshoe]

NAM with great amounts as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

I like the GFS in that it places a heavier band right over me in Central Nebraska.  Local METS are really hitting this storm hard with watches and advisories and talk of possible upgrades to warnings for Freezing Rain then Sleet before switching to snow.  They are also really advising people to leave for their Thanksgiving destinations today instead of tomorrow as roads will be getting worse and worse as Thanksgiving day progresses.  Be safe out there.  

 

We had planned to go to Kearney (30 miles away) to have Thanksgiving dinner but we have decided to stay home.

[Guest Snowball]

50 degrees here this morning. It will take awhile for the main roads to ice up with the warmth we've had this week.

[Tom]

06z RGEM...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I like that strip of snow's location.  Several models are painting a thin strip of accumulation snows across Central Nebraska but hard to pinpoint where the cold air will be well established.  It might be a continually changing situation in the next 36 hours.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Potential Snow amounts for Thanksgiving.

 

[Tom]

12z RGEM...this model pretty much nailed the last storm 24-36 hours out...