11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm

[Tom]

As the cut-off ULL feature that is dominating the overall weather pattern in the west begins to eject out into the  eastern Rockies/Plains, it will interact with the remnants of Hurricane Sandra that is forecast to hit near the Baja of Cali and head up into N Mexico/TX.  Models are now getting a better handle on these two main features and are targeting the central/southern Plains with a significant snowfall.  Current guidance suggest NE to be the epicenter and should bring a smile to many snow lovers out that way.

 

12z Euro jet structure has a potent looking ULL tracking through the central Plains with a significant "speed max" right over OK/N TX which should supply maximum lift and snowfall in the cold sector of this storm system.  If you missed out on the snow this Thanksgiving, it looks like you have a good chance at seeing some nice snowfall later this weekend.

[jcwxguy]

on that euro snowfall map, how much does it show for just today (so we can subtract that from the map above)

 

-Canadian and GFS models show lincoln on the mix/rain/snow line. 

[Tom]

on that euro snowfall map, how much does it show for just today (so we can subtract that from the map above)

 

-Canadian and GFS models show lincoln on the mix/rain/snow line. 

Subtract 2-4"...Euro keeps temps below freezing near Lincoln and 850's are -5C or less...sufficient for snowfall production...

[Jaycee]

[jcwxguy]

Subtract 2-4"...Euro keeps temps below freezing near Lincoln and 850's are -5C or less...sufficient for snowfall production...

awesome. Hope that continues to be the case

[Tom]

You guys deserve it, I really hope this pans out so you can enjoy a decent storm finally.

[Money]

Oh look a miss to the NW now

[GDR]

Anyway this thing shifts 300 miles east

[Iowa2015]

I'm game shifting that 300 east I be jealous if you all scored those kind of totals got screwed on the last storm only got like 3 inches. Now it's 60 out while just to my west its 40 temperature's should crash over the next couple hours crazy the warm air in front of the heavy rain

[Jaycee]

I'm game shifting that 300 east I be jealous if you all scored those kind of totals got screwed on the last storm only got like 3 inches. Now it's 60 out while just to my west its 40 temperature's should crash over the next couple hours crazy the warm air in front of the heavy rain

No need to be jealous dude, if you were here the past 5 years you'd understand. We legit need this, been awhile since I've seen any sorts of totals this large within 120 hrs. Plus, your spot is awesome, I wouldn't stress one storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nws Hastings says there will be snow Monday. Doesn't give potential amounts, ideas on the system, nothing. Was hoping for at least something. I will get my information from theweatherforums instead

[Guest Snowball]

Omaha says they need to watch this system closely. That's it

[Guest Snowball]

Omaha says they need to watch this system closely. That's it

[gabel23]

[Tom]

18z GFS...ramping up snowfall amounts...I think this system can become a juicy snow maker for NE...there is alot going for it to be full of surprises...slow mover, ample GOM moisture and cold air in place...

[jcwxguy]

Needs to shift south by 50-75 miles

[james1976]

18z GFS...ramping up snowfall amounts...I think this system can become a juicy snow maker for NE...there is alot going for it to be full of surprises...slow mover, ample GOM moisture and cold air in place...

Talk about a sharp cutoff, wow. I could stand in my bare backyard and throw a rock and hit that 6" area. Lmao

[centralweather44]

Looks like Lincoln may be right on the edge. Right now they are calling for 35 degrees on Monday as well

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles/Control are pounding away in NE/NW IA...

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

[Jaycee]

Too far NW. If we get rain shafted in SE Nebraska thatd be incredibly disappointing. EURO/CMC still drill the whole state, will be interesting to see if GFS follows suit, though it looks like it's actually moving further NW with this one.

[Money]

GFS has no snow at all for WI/IL through Dec. 9th

[Tom]

Looks like the 00z GGEM has all snow for NE/IA/W KS....

[gabel23]

This storm over performed for my area!! I just got back from David City; the roads were pretty much all ice but as long as you drove slow you were ok. I received 4" of snow, my first white thanksgiving in recent memory. That coupled along with a glaze of ice below makes for a sloppy mess around town. Our local station KOLN/KGIN's rpm model was the only model I seen call for 3-5" of snow in a small band. I'm pretty happy to say the least, I'll add some pics tomorrow! 

My bad, I posted this in the wrong storm. I just fixed it. 

[NEJeremy]

00z GFS...

well that run sucked for most of eastern Nebraska. my local point forecast has all mix throughout the event, so they must not be too sure of snow or rain yet either. I just know this is going to turn out weak sauce for Omaha

[gabel23]

Looks like the 00z GGEM has all snow for NE/IA/W KS....

Correct me if I'm wrong Tom, didn't we have a hurricane in the same spot when the LRC was setting up this fall?! This storm should feed off that hurricane that currently is in progress with this system, interesting times ahead. 

[Tom]

Correct me if I'm wrong Tom, didn't we have a hurricane in the same spot when the LRC was setting up this fall?! This storm should feed off that hurricane that currently is in progress with this system, interesting times ahead. 

Indeed amigo, this will also have tropical influence...Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia tracked a little farther south, nonetheless, same pattern repeating itself.  Gotta say, Jim Flowers 30 day cycle has been fairly accurate...+/- a few days

 

Edit: Hurricane Sandra is a Cat 3, might reach Cat 4...with it being so late in the season is very impressive...

[Andrew NE]

I feel we are going to find ourselves on the southeast edge of these systems early in the winter with limited cold air in place.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112700/gem_asnow_us_24.png

[Tom]

I feel we are going to find ourselves on the southeast edge of these systems early in the winter with limited cold air in place.

I wouldn't say that...its ONLY late November...you still have Dec-Mar...good 3.5 months to see plenty of storms...this season will not let you down with the amount of storm systems you'll see...plus, blocking looks to get established in this type of overall pattern as we move forward.

[Andrew NE]

I do agree, I think we will have a good winter especially compared to the last couple, I'm just excited to get into the later part of dec-Jan-feb.

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

[Andrew NE]

GFS might be onto to something with a slight NW shift. We will see in the next day or two.

[Geos]

If there was snow cover across the upper Midwest, the cold air supply would be right there. Snowcover is further north though. Would be nice to get a shift 100 miles further south for southeast Nebraska's sake.

[GDR]

Boring

[jcwxguy]

Looks like the 12z nam still gives us snow here in lincoln

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112712/namconus_asnow_us_29.png

[james1976]

Everything needs to shift SE for me but Im not counting on it. Usually systems tend to shift back to the NW as we get close to the event.

[Tom]

12z GFS shifting a bit SE...still lots of time to figure this track out...the tropical cyclone energy will need to come across MX so it can be sampled better to get an idea how much influence it will have as it phases with the ULL coming out of the Rockies.

 

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112712/gem_asnow_us_18.png

[jcwxguy]

just a guess here, but i think the euro will show the low go over southeast nebraska and give lincoln mostly mix