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11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Geos
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Looks like winter again here. RGEM/GEM nailed the snow area perfectly. 2.4" here so far.    

Tom
Tom

00z GGEM...looking better for E NE...

Tom
Tom

12z RGEM...   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015112912/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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thats what ive been thinking

If the NAM is right you can clock us in at getting 8". It's going to be closeee. I unfortunately am going to downplay it and say we'll be rain. Tom, give me something to boost my hopes up man, is there anything that says this thing will shift SE? I know that was the case with your storm last week right?

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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If the NAM is right you can clock us in at getting 8". It's going to be closeee. I unfortunately am going to downplay it and say we'll be rain. Tom, give me something to boost my hopes up man, is there anything that says this thing will shift SE? I know that was the case with your storm last week right?

I don't forsee a significant shift SE with this one.  Last storm had a big HP that blocked it from heading to far north.  In this situation, the system is cut-off from the main jet and models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the track, let along intensity.

 

Your going to see a wide variety of solutions, but your area still seems like it is in a good spot to see some snow.

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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I don't forsee a significant shift SE with this one. Last storm had a big HP that blocked it from heading to far north. In this situation, the system is cut-off from the main jet and models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the track, let along intensity.

 

Your going to see a wide variety of solutions, but your area still seems like it is in a good spot to see some snow.

Tom, you're awesome dude. Thanks for all the updates. I think it'll be a day of event where we'll just have to watch the temp profiles. I sure hope this thing gives us something over 6", been way too long!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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You know, I recall the last system that ejected out of the Rockies into the Plains in this similar fashion ended up shifting farther SE each day.  It's still on the table since that has been the pattern thus far.  18z GFS has a CO Low for in SW KS/TX Pan Handle and heads due East, instead of NE...then eventually heads NE towards N MO/S WI.

 

I feel this storm has eyes for NE/MN/NW IA...12z EPS has maintained a good hit for these locals....

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z NAM showing some lolipop totals in NW IA/MN...hasn't this region been the hot spot for storm systems...now that we are closing in on December, there is more cold air around to produce snow even without a direct arctic connection.  All you need is somewhat of a HP to funnel in cold air or have "left over" cold from an arctic outbreak.

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Tom Grand Master

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Wow, talk about a major shift. That had the heaviest of the totals well north. Shoot... now the NAM isn't on our side, gives us maybe 2-4". Praying the GFS gives us something... would hate to see this system go to waste around here :(

Pin-pointing the heaviest swath of snow this far out isn't much of a worry really...If I were you, I'd be hoping the NW trend doesn't come back...that'll bring a rain/snow mix close by and that is always the dagger.

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Tom Grand Master

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@ James, if you get another 6-10" from this system...you will be close to 18"+ for the season...close to 50% of your seasonal snowfall!  Haha...slow start or fast start to the Winter???  Meteorological Winter will have just started by then!  Pretty awesome pattern.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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00z GFS...

 

If that snow band starts moving into NW IL, that's going to start grabbing my attention more. Seems like the snow area is becoming more west to east.

 

 

GFS starts showing just that...

Congrats eastern Nebraska!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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If that snow band starts moving into NW IL, that's going to start grabbing my attention more. Seems like the snow area is becoming more west to east.

 

 

GFS starts showing just that...

Congrats eastern Nebraska!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112800/gfs_asnow_ncus_18.png

Classic CO Low with a bit of a Bowling Ball look...

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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In 24 hours, the GFS has shifted about 175 miles...

 

00z GFS yesterday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112700/gfs_asnow_us_21.png

 

00z GFS today...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112800/gfs_asnow_us_17.png

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