Jump to content

December 12-14th Snow and Rain system


Geos

Recommended Posts

For a large part of the Midwest a wet and largely mild system will impact the region. There looks to be enough cold air with some wet snow and on the other side some pretty good rains as well. Discuss.

 

I'll start with the GFS snowfall and precipitation tally maps.

 

 

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For a large part of the Midwest a wet and largely mild system will impact the region. There looks to be enough cold air with some wet snow and on the other side some pretty good rains as well. Discuss.

 

I'll start with the GFS snowfall and precipitation tally maps.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120800/gfs_asnow_ncus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120800/gfs_apcpn_ncus_26.png

 

 

Looks like the western UP of Mich gonna get rocked either way. If not with defo band snows, then LES should kick butt. Prolly get both knowing how it goes up there.

 

On a footnote. Love the colors on these newer maps but the graduations are almost too fine to read easily. Especially for the snowfall as it transitions from the purples to the pink/oranges (the range we often fall into). You literally have to zoom up somehow, then it's like counting tree rings LOL!  They need more colors or fewer graduations per color imho. That's my 2 cents. 

 

Cheers to a rockin' 2nd half of December!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got it's sights set on Duluth it would appear.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z gfs 

 

 

One thing that is good about putting down a lot of snow around Superior and northern Ontario (for this region at least), when you have a storm approaching from the west or southwest is starting to pull again in from the northeast. When there is a heavy snow cover north and northeast of this area, there is a close proximity cold air supply. Don't mind seeing a couple storm go by to the north if it means better conditions for getting snow later on. In your area you would want Minnesota, South Dakota and Iowa to be covered with snow.

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am with you.  Always seems random when they put a large snowfall map out like this.  I guess it protects them one way or another if it switches paths.  I guess I don't know what they follow, if it is Euro, GEM, GFS, or NAM.  What is always interesting is in 6 hours or so when they update it might say rain/snow little accumulation or less than an inch.  Just thought I would post to show what some are saying.  We will see in the next 5 days who is correct.  

 

NWS Hastings lastest information:

 

Now heading into the weekend...a much deeper trough axis is prognosticated
to pass through the region. There are some discrepancies among
models...mainly the closed low from the European model (ecmwf) and open wave from the
GFS. The ecwmf is also much more defined with more abundant moisture
and thus precipitation for the area than the GFS. However...after
seeing the last few model runs...the GFS is actually coming more in
line with the European model (ecmwf) especially since yesterday the solution was
completely dry. Again...other discrepancies include temperatures at
the surface...with the ecwmf coming in slightly colder than the GFS.
Uncertainly exists in how much of this event will be
rain...rain/snow and finally a snow event. The system is still far
enough out it remains in the blended land of the grids.
However...even the blend has raised probability of precipitation and lowered temperatures
slightly. Would not be surprised to see higher probability of precipitation and even lower
high temperatures for the weekend as more model runs come in.

The system exits the region as quickly as it came by Sunday. By the
beginning of next week...the ecwmf suggests yet another closed low
aiming for the Central Plains with the GFS is further south.
Definitely looking at a pattern change this weekend...with multiple
rounds for winter precipitation coming. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the storm track off to my NW my area will be on the warm side of the system for this weekend with temps in the mid to maybe even upper 50’s for the weekend. But it sure could get wet. The write up for the GRR area for the weekend points out that there is a chance of 2 to 3 inches (or more) of rain could fall some where in the forecast area (The December average is around 2.5”)

“LONG TERM   (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)   ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015      OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS ON THE   POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. THIS COMES WITH A VERY WET   SYSTEM BY DECEMBER STANDARDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.      THE AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT HAS BEEN   PREVALENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS WEEK SO FAR. SOME SUNSHINE   AND MILD TEMPS LOOK LIKELY. WE WILL FIND THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE   DEPARTING WAVE FROM THU...AND FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM   FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.       THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THE RAIN CHCS INCREASING SOME FRI   NIGHT AND INTO SAT. THE RAIN ON SAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY...AND   WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO   THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE AREA.      THE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN LATE SAT NIGHT AND LOOKS TO   REMAIN INTO MON. WE WILL SEE THE AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT   INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING INTO THE AREA   AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RICH GULF MOISTURE   NEARBY BY THEN TO INTERACT WITH THE WAVES. THIS PATTERN HOLDS AT   LEAST THROUGH SUN...AND POTENTIALLY INTO MON WITH THE MAIN WAVE   LIFTING NE.       IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THIS PATTERN IS GOING TO TAKE SHAPE WITH   HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY. LOW CONFIDENCE RESIDES WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT   OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD END UP OVER THE   AREA. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL THAT AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN   COULD FALL UNDER THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS...IF NOT MORE.      WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD FOR   NEXT TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND THE LONG   TERM. SOME OF THE PCPN COULD MIX WITH/CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW WITH   COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE MAJOR SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON.       
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z GFS brings back the snows for several on here,, remember models are really going to struggle with the amount of energy the PAC released into the atmosphere the past week to 10.---USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_138.gif

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro still has a decent storm, but it doesn't have any cold air associated with it this run.  Fluky run as it had the AO turning positive post-system as it did the same thing before a day ago but then eventually consecutive runs turned it back negative.  GEFS/EPS all have a -AO during this time frame though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the reason why models are struggling with this storm system is due to the Bearing Sea bomb that is forecast to blow up an ultimately buckle the jet stream late this weekend.  The energy from this system comes on shore Friday as it dives south into the 4 corners region.  Latest 06z GFS has shifted the storm a little SE but no cold air associated with it.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS...def trending towards a Lower Lakes cutter...just need this baby to phase a bit quicker as we head closer so it can tug down colder air.  The model is probably digesting the -AO/-NAO that is developing during this period.  It's a perfect storm track that usually produces some heavy snows in the Midwest/Lakes region developing a Tekarkana SLP and tracks NE towards the Lakes.  Looks like it tries to go neg tilt down in S IL @ HR 108.  This thing practically bombs out as it heads up towards NE lower MI. 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...