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December 12-14th Snow and Rain system


Geos

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Huh, looks like Money or I might be able to get some some. We'll see how this storm play out, but this fall storms have generally trended South/East. Cold air will be an issue, but it's something to watch.

Indeed, the more dynamic systems have trended SE this season thus far.  Pay close attn where the models locate the HP in southern Canada.  I think you guys up there stand a better chance at seeing some appreciable snows than say from N IL and points south.  Maybe some wrap around snows in the defo band around here.  Let's see the trends as we move forward.

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EURO is probably onto something with those runs with the more east tracks.

 

GFS doesn't push it above 50° now here. Lets see what the CMC says...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z GFS...def trending towards a Lower Lakes cutter...just need this baby to phase a bit quicker as we head closer so it can tug down colder air.  The model is probably digesting the -AO/-NAO that is developing during this period.  It's a perfect storm track that usually produces some heavy snows in the Midwest/Lakes region developing a Tekarkana SLP and tracks NE towards the Lakes.  Looks like it tries to go neg tilt down in S IL @ HR 108.  This thing practically bombs out as it heads up towards NE lower MI. 

 

If only.. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's not going to Canada with a lower AO at the time - if anything the models are settling on a track further south and east. At least for the time being.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Why are the models going so crazy?

Having a devil of a time what to do with the immense energy coming off of the Pacific.

 

12z Euro splits this storm into 2 pieces...one piece tracks from N MO/S WI/S Ontario...the second piece takes a similar track...weird run...

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Having a devil of a time what to do with the immense energy coming off of the Pacific.

 

12z Euro splits this storm into 2 pieces...one piece tracks from N MO/S WI/S Ontario...the second piece takes a similar track...weird run...

 

Rather have it come out in one piece. Very strange that the second piece takes a similar track. Pretty much always the second wave goes further south than the first piece.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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First run of the NAM showing the low moving into the region.

Probably will become amped up on the 0z and 6z runs.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's gonna rain :angry:

 

Saturday
A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind 8 to 11 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Rain likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42.
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GFS has been consistent bombing this thing out...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

"she's a beaut, Clark"

 

Not saying that it won't happen but I will say that the GFS seems overly monster-happy this season so far - especially in the longer range. Granted, this is now

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS has been consistent with this idea for what it's worth. Crazy amount of moisture for December. This from NWS GRB

 

SUBTLE...BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE

MODELS HEADED INTO SUNDAY AS ONE MODEL CAMP KEEPS A LARGE PIECE OF
ENERGY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE THE OTHER MODEL CAMP SUGGESTS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WL LIFT NE ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS.
INITIALLY...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT PCPN CHCS AS SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS GULF MOISTURE CONTS TO SURGE INTO WI
(PW VALUES APPROACH 1") AND A SFC WAVE LIFTS NWD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PCPN TO
REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH MAYBE AN EARLY MORNING MIX IN FAR N-CNTRL WI.
TEMPS ARE NO PICNIC ON SUNDAY EITHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. IF THIS BOUNDARY GETS PULLED TO THE WEST
AT ALL...TEMPS OVER ERN WI COULD SURPASS 50 DEGS. FOR NOW...HAVE
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGS N-CNTRL WI...TO THE LWR 50S
E-CNTRL WI.
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Models seem to be locking into a "2 inches of rain with warm temps" scenario for eastern Iowa.  I'm actually looking forward to it as I'm enjoying the mild weather.  We'll get our shot at more snow eventually.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Are you that shocked based on how strong the El Nino is?

No. Just find it odd those claiming all the sudden it's going to turn cold with heavy extensive Snow accumulation from mid December on. Only thing i agree with them there be a prade of storms but those will be RAIN storms with a outside chance if everything sets up just right maybe a slushy inch here & there on the back end. It will torch thougth end of Dec
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Always knew this would be a widespread rain system. All I can say is that I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of big rain numbers come out of this. The amount of moisture flowing into the nation is incredible.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Always knew this would be a widespread rain system. All I can say is that I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of big rain numbers come out of this. The amount of moisture flowing into the nation is incredible.

Dont have EURO access but looking at the other parameters it has to have some substantial totals

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No. Just find it odd those claiming all the sudden it's going to turn cold with heavy extensive Snow accumulation from mid December on. Only thing i agree with them there be a prade of storms but those will be RAIN storms with a outside chance if everything sets up just right maybe a slushy inch here & there on the back end. It will torch thougth end of Dec

Everyone knew it was going to torch during the first 2 weeks of December. It will be more seasonable starting after the 15th. With the current pattern just need to the storms to line up when the cold comes through. Hopefully for those who like snow we see some changes towards the end of the month into January.

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Everyone knew it was going to torch during the first 2 weeks of December. It will be more seasonable starting after the 15th. With the current pattern just need to the storms to line up when the cold comes through. Hopefully for those who like snow we see some changes towards the end of the month into January.

This looks seasonable to you?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121012/gfs_T2ma_us_45.png

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