Tom Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Huh, looks like Money or I might be able to get some some. We'll see how this storm play out, but this fall storms have generally trended South/East. Cold air will be an issue, but it's something to watch.Indeed, the more dynamic systems have trended SE this season thus far. Pay close attn where the models locate the HP in southern Canada. I think you guys up there stand a better chance at seeing some appreciable snows than say from N IL and points south. Maybe some wrap around snows in the defo band around here. Let's see the trends as we move forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Good thing models only have about a 650 mile difference between runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 EURO is probably onto something with those runs with the more east tracks. GFS doesn't push it above 50° now here. Lets see what the CMC says... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z GFS...def trending towards a Lower Lakes cutter...just need this baby to phase a bit quicker as we head closer so it can tug down colder air. The model is probably digesting the -AO/-NAO that is developing during this period. It's a perfect storm track that usually produces some heavy snows in the Midwest/Lakes region developing a Tekarkana SLP and tracks NE towards the Lakes. Looks like it tries to go neg tilt down in S IL @ HR 108. This thing practically bombs out as it heads up towards NE lower MI. If only.. :rolleyes: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 CMC still amplified. Northwoods snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 It's going to be in Canada soon. Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 If only.. :rolleyes: GFS Mega-bomb.jpg12z GGEM on the right track... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015120912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Next 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Why are the models going so crazy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 It's not going to Canada with a lower AO at the time - if anything the models are settling on a track further south and east. At least for the time being. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Why are the models going so crazy?Having a devil of a time what to do with the immense energy coming off of the Pacific. 12z Euro splits this storm into 2 pieces...one piece tracks from N MO/S WI/S Ontario...the second piece takes a similar track...weird run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Ecm is way warm for snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Having a devil of a time what to do with the immense energy coming off of the Pacific. 12z Euro splits this storm into 2 pieces...one piece tracks from N MO/S WI/S Ontario...the second piece takes a similar track...weird run... Rather have it come out in one piece. Very strange that the second piece takes a similar track. Pretty much always the second wave goes further south than the first piece. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 First run of the NAM showing the low moving into the region.Probably will become amped up on the 0z and 6z runs. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 GoSaints threading the needle...so close for Money and Snowshoe...need a 100 or so shift... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 GFS has been consistent bombing this thing out... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Gets it down into the low 970's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 9, 2015 Report Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yesterdays 18z had a snowathon. Will buy it if we see some.consistency Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's gonna rain SaturdayA 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind 8 to 11 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.Saturday NightRain likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.SundayA 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm cool with it hitting the northwoods! GoSaints threading the needle...so close for Money and Snowshoe...need a 100 or so shift... Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 GFS has been consistent bombing this thing out... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png "she's a beaut, Clark" Not saying that it won't happen but I will say that the GFS seems overly monster-happy this season so far - especially in the longer range. Granted, this is now Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 The GFS has been consistent with this idea for what it's worth. Crazy amount of moisture for December. This from NWS GRB SUBTLE...BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THEMODELS HEADED INTO SUNDAY AS ONE MODEL CAMP KEEPS A LARGE PIECE OFENERGY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE THE OTHER MODEL CAMP SUGGESTSTHE ENTIRE SYSTEM WL LIFT NE ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS.INITIALLY...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT PCPN CHCS AS SUNDAYAPPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS GULF MOISTURE CONTS TO SURGE INTO WI(PW VALUES APPROACH 1") AND A SFC WAVE LIFTS NWD ALONG THE STALLEDFRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PCPN TOREMAIN ALL RAIN WITH MAYBE AN EARLY MORNING MIX IN FAR N-CNTRL WI.TEMPS ARE NO PICNIC ON SUNDAY EITHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. IF THIS BOUNDARY GETS PULLED TO THE WESTAT ALL...TEMPS OVER ERN WI COULD SURPASS 50 DEGS. FOR NOW...HAVEREADINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGS N-CNTRL WI...TO THE LWR 50SE-CNTRL WI. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 If the southern piece of energy deepens quicker, there could be some surprises for folks in the Plains/Midwest. Some of the 00z Euro members and Control run are trying to paint a swath of snow in E NE/KC/IA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 We're heading to 62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 No local mets. are mentioning any storms. Really just talking about weather back to normal temps and some rain and rain/snow mix systems through the end of next week. Seems like 12Z GFS through hour 159, is again focusing everything in the Northern Plains and Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 At least the Sierra Nevada range in California is getting lots of snow. They really needed that 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Models seem to be locking into a "2 inches of rain with warm temps" scenario for eastern Iowa. I'm actually looking forward to it as I'm enjoying the mild weather. We'll get our shot at more snow eventually. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Where winter? Already 55 should easily get into the 60 Today. This weekend storm looking to be a heavy rain event & possible strong Storm's 2 inches + of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Where winter? Already 55 should easily get into the 60 Today. This weekend storm looking to be a heavy rain event & possible strong Storm's 2 inches + of rain.Are you that shocked based on how strong the El Nino is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Are you that shocked based on how strong the El Nino is?No. Just find it odd those claiming all the sudden it's going to turn cold with heavy extensive Snow accumulation from mid December on. Only thing i agree with them there be a prade of storms but those will be RAIN storms with a outside chance if everything sets up just right maybe a slushy inch here & there on the back end. It will torch thougth end of Dec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I feel our best shot at some real winter like weather will be early to mid January when the cold phase of this cycle comes back through. The late November cold streak should be coming back through the cycle then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Always knew this would be a widespread rain system. All I can say is that I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of big rain numbers come out of this. The amount of moisture flowing into the nation is incredible. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Always knew this would be a widespread rain system. All I can say is that I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of big rain numbers come out of this. The amount of moisture flowing into the nation is incredible.Dont have EURO access but looking at the other parameters it has to have some substantial totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 No. Just find it odd those claiming all the sudden it's going to turn cold with heavy extensive Snow accumulation from mid December on. Only thing i agree with them there be a prade of storms but those will be RAIN storms with a outside chance if everything sets up just right maybe a slushy inch here & there on the back end. It will torch thougth end of DecEveryone knew it was going to torch during the first 2 weeks of December. It will be more seasonable starting after the 15th. With the current pattern just need to the storms to line up when the cold comes through. Hopefully for those who like snow we see some changes towards the end of the month into January. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Everyone knew it was going to torch during the first 2 weeks of December. It will be more seasonable starting after the 15th. With the current pattern just need to the storms to line up when the cold comes through. Hopefully for those who like snow we see some changes towards the end of the month into January.This looks seasonable to you?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121012/gfs_T2ma_us_45.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Any weather after the 14th move the discussion to the December thread. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 This looks seasonable to you?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121012/gfs_T2ma_us_45.pngNope, but honestly I don't trust any single model more than 7 days out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 EURO and Canadian showed a nice snowstorm for parts of Nebraska Sunday Night. They have the low much stronger and actually show it closing off and taking a pretty favorable track for the Central Plains. Will need to be watched to see if the models follow suite tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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