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December 12-14th Snow and Rain system


Geos

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EURO and Canadian showed a nice snowstorm for parts of Nebraska Sunday Night.  They have the low much stronger and actually show it closing off and taking a pretty favorable track for the Central Plains.  Will need to be watched to see if the models follow suite tonight.

 

Nice.

If it's still there in 24 hours, will start a thread.

 

Just wish it wasn't hooking northwards that quickly...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NAM really winding the storm up and cutting it farther east on Monday. I know it's not very accurate this far out, but it's showing a little backside snow.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Still didn't catch a glimpse of the EURO last night, but GFS is sucky. Let's remember how well the NAM did on the last storm around these parts though.

 

 

Edit: This storm reminds me of the March 2007 blizzard that dropped 17" in Omaha. Was supposed to be centered around Western Iowa, but the very narrow band exploded over Eastern Nebraska, without warning. The potency of this storm is there, just have to wait and see if it can do something similar.

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12z RGEM starting to look like the 00z Euro run from last night and developing a healthy looking defo band in KS/CO as the storm deepens and transitions from rain to snow.  The Euro/Control dumped 6"+ in parts of NE/KS and it looks like the high rez models may be heading that way.  This system may end up being a nowcast type of storm to see who gets snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121112/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

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12z GFS is not as far south and east with the snow as the GEM.

Difference is that the GEM deepens the low a bit quicker and the temperatures over eastern Nebraska are a couple degrees colder on the GEM. Looks like a "thread the needle event".

 

 

 

GFS vs. GEM at 850 mb.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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WSW for southwest kansas?????

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE WET...AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ON MONDAY.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-076>080-086>089-121200-
/O.NEW.KDDC.WS.A.0002.151213T0600Z-151214T0600Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-
COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD...GARDEN CITY...
KALVESTA...JETMORE...HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...SUBLETTE...
SATANTA...CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...
LEWIS...GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...
FOWLER...ASHLAND...MINNEOLA...COLDWATER...PROTECTION
200 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 /100 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. SLUSH AND WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

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they must be buying the gem

 

how was the 12z euro?

 

edit: 12z euro thows snow down in that area and central/east central nebraska as well

 

That's what I'm thinking.

 

Well then if the EURO agrees...

 

I hope you guys get some too.

 

Special weather statement issued by AMA.

Storm is going to really dig if they're expecting snow also. Could be some good snow runs for Nebraska coming up soon.

...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXASPANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THESOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT ANDSUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOTHE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMSMAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATIONCHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVESSOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TOSOUTHEAST. SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE LATE SATURDAYNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAYAS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLEACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LESSTHAN ONE INCH ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXASPANHANDLE. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXASPANHANDLES.


			
		

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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they must be buying the gem

 

how was the 12z euro?

 

edit: 12z euro throws snow down in that area and central/east central nebraska as well

If that's the case, then we should see those watches get expanded northeastward. Should be an interesting battle tonight and into tomorrow with the computer models that's for sure! 

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From the Hastings disco-

WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITH
THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 18Z NAM...MAINTAINING
ABOUT ONE INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183.

AHEAD OF THIS LOW...EXPECT MOISTURE TO START STREAMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW...AND WITH SOME VERY
MODEST MU CAPE VALUES...DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...EXPECT RAINFALL TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS...WITH THE
EC GENERALLY DOUBLING QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS...THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE LOCAL
AREA...INDICATING A TRANSITION FROM A COLD RAIN TO SNOW. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE...MEANING THAT WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
LIKELY NOT A FREEZING MIXTURE DURING THIS EVENT. SO WHILE
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...JUST WHEN EXACTLY THE
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
SNOWFALL TOTALS.

AFTER MUCH ANALYSIS...COULD NOT REASON THE TRANSITION BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE THIS COLDER AIR WILL BE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PRECIP IS GENERALLY WINDING
DOWN...OPTED TO HAVE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN SOME OF OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.

 

From Omaha-

THE DEFORMATION BAND THEN SETS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR FINALLY BEGINS WORKING INTO
THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO A WINTRY MIX IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLY
WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND IN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS FAR EAST AS
ABOUT HIGHWAY 77/75.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This will be a classic battle of the models to see who wins.  EURO has been consistently strong, GFS consistently flat and weak.  I'm putting my eggs in the EURO considering the GFS has been God awful.  This thing has amazing potential but not gunna lie, I will be awfully pissed if this storm gets wasted on cold rain.  It's taking the perfect track for a snowstorm in Nebraska and we really deserve one after how terrible these last few years have been.

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18z RGEM staying put in a sweet looking defo band setting up in W KS at HR48.  This is as far out as the model goes.  I had a hunch this storm would bring surprises.  Love tracking deepening storm systems like these.  Hope it lays down a nice swath of heavy snows in the central Plains.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121118/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png

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