December 15-16th Plains Snow System

[Geos]

Another snow system for Nebraska and points north is on the table mid week. 

 

So far the GEM is more bullish and southeast with the snow than the GFS.

Not much rain out front with this system. Moisture transport is partially cut off by the departing system earlier in the week.

 

 

[jaster220]

Congrats (to some of the) NE peeps. That track that lays down snow from eastern CO and north-east through MN and clips the west end of Michigan's UP is what I remember the most active snowstorm track being in the strong Nino of '82/83. And Ghosts of Christmases past if that area gets another bliz (ala 2009) at Christmas this year. Had a bunch of snow in SCMI over the past two winters, but brown Christmases are running rampant since 2011.

[NEJeremy]

why the hell is this system cutting so sharply right behind the first system? I keep waiting for the models to change but they're not budging an inch

[NEJeremy]

winter storm watches for the Nebraska panhandle for 5-9" of snow

[NEJeremy]

All snow chances have been removed for Omaha for this storm too. Just a chance of light rain now. Of course after this storm moves through it finally gets below freezing with highs only around 30 for Thursday and Friday.

[Jaycee]

This is the worst.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings questioning the accuracy of the computer models for this next system:

 

 

OF
COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE MODEL ACCURACY OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND JUDGING THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...MIGHT WANT
TO GIVE THIS SOME LEE WAY FOR VARIATION. IN OTHER WORDS...HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW MIGHT BE 60 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF CURRENT PROJECTION.

[NEJeremy]

NWS Hastings questioning the accuracy of the computer models for this next system:

 

 

OF

COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE MODEL ACCURACY OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW

AND JUDGING THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...MIGHT WANT

TO GIVE THIS SOME LEE WAY FOR VARIATION. IN OTHER WORDS...HEAVIER

BAND OF SNOW MIGHT BE 60 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF CURRENT PROJECTION.

I'd believe that more if the models had been jumping all over with this system, but it's been basically the same track on every run for days now. At least out this way 60 miles isn't going to make a difference anyway too.

[CentralNebWeather]

Your right. If you read their latest scientific forecasts they seem very frustrated that this storm has given them so many fits so it is hard to have total confidence in storm number 2

[Geos]

System at 6pm Tuesday - NAM

 

 

Low really takes a hook towards Sioux Falls, which is really unusual given the track of the storm that just went by.

 

[Andrew NE]

Are there any western NE, SD, or ND members out there that will get to enjoy this storm system? Central NE looks to be right on the edge.

[CentralNebWeather]

Don't know of any west of me.  They have me in the maybe 1 inch (doubtful) and Dawson County to my northwest may get 3 inches.  Will have to look down the road to our next chance.  Hard to miss 2 storms like this but we did it again here.  I think that is at least 5 misses of potential major storms going way back to early November for me.

[jaster220]

Per Intellicast future-cast, it's oh SO close to at least giving you guys a consolation coating. Hoping it does!

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

The Low is basically right on top of my house, ha.  For our best snow storms, yes it does snow some years, or it used to anyways, we need that low about 100 miles straight south of its location on that map above.  Keep hoping that the models will shift south but they are staying firm, even the latest 12Z GFS.

[Andrew NE]

I have kept hoping for that same shift, it is interesting to me with how crazy the models have been with numerous storms so far this season and that the GFS has locked and not budged a bit for the past week. 

[Tom]

12z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121412/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png

[CentralNebWeather]

A 50-75 mile shift south would make a big difference for those Nebraskans on here but models seem firm.  I don't think the GFS or NAM have budged in days.  Much different than our previous storm.

[Andrew NE]

The NAM is coming in juicy for western NE.

[bud2380]

Dang, you're not kidding.  Western NE would be a nice place to be for this storm.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/m4Jh1hj.gif

[Andrew NE]

Yes sir. They have been in a great spot a few times since November.

[Geos]

0z GFS.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Shows 1 inch over me according to gfs. I am not holding out much hope of more than just flurries.

[Geos]

That is a beautiful area of snow in Nebraska this morning.

Too bad we don't have any members that far out. Would love to hear some reports from that area.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Geos, this map would show me at 3 inches.  It has been freezing drizzle, snow, off and on for hours.  It is very slick.  I teach and several have slipped in the parking lot and a couple of students that live in the country had a fender bender on there way to school this morning.

[jaster220]

That is a beautiful area of snow in Nebraska this morning.

Too bad we don't have any members that far out. Would love to hear some reports from that area.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2015121500/wrf-nmm_asnow_ncus_48.png

 

Neat how it has that LES stripe hugging Lk. Superior on an easterly wind..

[CentralNebWeather]

Trees getting glazed with ice here.  Streets are slick, several accidents from what I hear.  Just can't get it snow.  This might now be 6 storms where you would have expected snow but it is rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle or sleet.  Might catch some snow as a band in Colorado and SW Nebraska tries to move east, but I assume that will fizzle out or move northeast.

 

Have heard of many schools closed again west and northwest of me.  I know of districts in southwest Nebraska that have already had 3 full snow days and several late starts and early dismissals.  Seems like that area, northeast through South Dakota, is the prime spot this year as I just miss out and many others east and northeast have little chance unless a big change happens.

[Geos]

Trees getting glazed with ice here.  Streets are slick, several accidents from what I hear.  Just can't get it snow.  This might now be 6 storms where you would have expected snow but it is rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle or sleet.  Might catch some snow as a band in Colorado and SW Nebraska tries to move east, but I assume that will fizzle out or move northeast.

 

Have heard of many schools closed again west and northwest of me.  I know of districts in southwest Nebraska that have already had 3 full snow days and several late starts and early dismissals.  Seems like that area, northeast through South Dakota, is the prime spot this year as I just miss out and many others east and northeast have little chance unless a big change happens.

 

Sounds like a rough travel day there. I hate freezing drizzle and rain. Sure it's pretty to see a light coating of ice on the trees, it's always a pain to clean up after an ice event though.

 

Yeah western South Dakota is getting a good dumping today. Sioux Falls missing the heaviest band I think.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

It will be interesting to see if the storm underperforms in the Nebraska panhandle.  There are sure a lot of open holes in the radar.  Looks like heaviest is in South Dakota.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice snow falling here. Actually starting to accumulate. May last a couple more hours. At least it can still snow here.

[CentralNebWeather]

A little Christmas snow cheer here the last hour.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Still snowing. Pictures don't do justice to the blowing snow.

[NEJeremy]

We had another bout of rain tonight. Didn't last long but man it came down hard. Checked the radar and it looked like a line of storms in the summer. No lightning though this time. Can it snow please?!

[Tom]

That band coming through Holdrege is such a tease...nice to see you got to at least see some snow out of this system.

[Andrew NE]

Nice pictures of the snow. It's not much but we would all take it I'm sure!

[CentralNebWeather]

This morning looks like Christmas. Nice little snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

We have school on time this morning but many districts around us have 10 AM starts.  I live on a snow route so they came buy with salt, sand, but side streets are like glass with ice under the 1 inch or so of snow.  

[CentralNebWeather]

You are right Tom.  About 10:30 last night it was really coming down with low visibility but only lasted about an hour.

[Geos]

We have school on time this morning but many districts around us have 10 AM starts.  I live on a snow route so they came buy with salt, sand, but side streets are like glass with ice under the 1 inch or so of snow.  

 

I can tell from the second to last picture there is ice under that snow. The street are shiny.

I hope no pet was spending the night in that carrier!

[CentralNebWeather]

No for some reason that pet carrier has sat there for a long time.

[Geos]

No for some reason that pet carrier has sat there for a long time.

 

Just messin' 

Saw the little paw prints in the snow there.

 

Probably a little more accurate this time around. Missing some data in eastern SD...