Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'll open up this topic for weather patterns and systems that are more than 5 days away. Discuss any ideas that you have, just keep the discussion civilized. We're awaiting a predicted pattern change. Next week is supposed to be the week the polar vortex takes it's first punch from tropospheric warming coming up from the south. One thing we're looking for is the migration of the ridge in the east to migrate northwards into the far north. That will at least bring down the AO and probably the NAO also. EURO ensembles at the end of the run show lower heights expanding east into the Plains at day 10. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Brazilian was off on the month of December before it began, but its been consistently showing a pattern change...take with a grain of salt though... http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2015121800/08808W4158N.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 18z GFS at hour 210 has the true meaning of the perfect "Arklatex" low type storm. Not saying it will happen. I'll probably get screwed by the NW shift as time goes but that is my winter dream storm there. Storm is on all models but obviously different temps and placement at this time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 12z Euro Para has a southerly track also...starts ejecting towards the lower lakes at the end of the run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 GEFS continue to show significant cooling the last 5 days or so of the month into the new year from NE/IA and points west as western/NW Canada begins to warm. 12z EPS replacing that was once a huge ridge south of the Aleutians with a trough in the Day 10-15 mean. Could be the first signs of re-arranging the jet stream pattern in the Pacific and heading towards the analogs/climate models. Pocket of cooler waters is forming right where the mean trough wants to develop as we head into January... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I'll take the exact middle of the blend of all the 12z models. Pretty much equals the 18z GFS when you blend them together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I'll take the exact middle of the blend of all the 12z models. Pretty much equals the 18z GFS when you blend them together.Late in November when we got hit with that snowstorm there was that blocking HP to the north and in this instance, the HP is almost in the same location. Wonder how much this storm digs as it enters the 4 corners region. That will be the key as to where this storm actually tracks. GFS is usually quicker and ejects storms out faster, while the Euro typically likes to hold energy back a bit. 12z EPS had the majority of its members targeting NE/KS/SD/ND/MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Late in November when we got hit with that snowstorm there was that blocking HP to the north and in this instance, the HP is almost in the same location. Wonder how much this storm digs as it enters the 4 corners region. That will be the key as to where this storm actually tracks. GFS is usually quicker and ejects storms out faster, while the Euro typically likes to hold energy back a bit. 12z EPS had the majority of its members targeting NE/KS/SD/ND/MN...Can you remind me what to click to see the individual members? When I don't use it for awhile I tend to forget where that is. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Can you remind me what to click to see the individual members? When I don't use it for awhile I tend to forget where that is. Thanks.Go to the tab that is under "EPS Precipitation & MSLP CONUS / 51 members"...its on the left side under the ECMWF group Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Go to the tab that is under "EPS Precipitation & MSLP CONUS / 51 members"...its on the left side under the ECMWF groupThanks sir! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Tom - I have a very important flight the morning of Dec 28. Are there any potential weather systems showing up that MAY be targeting our area around then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 DMX already on board for the big storm:THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO IMPACT IOWA STILL BEYOND THE EXTENDED INTO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SOMETIME BETWEEN DECEMBER 27-29. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Only 8 members have anything appreciable reaching my area here. It is an increase over the course of the 4 available runs but would like to see a much higher number obviously. The control has shifted east and south gradually as well. There's enough there for me to not dismiss it at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Tom - I have a very important flight the morning of Dec 28. Are there any potential weather systems showing up that MAY be targeting our area around then?Definitely, there is a potential major storm system in and around our region during this time frame. All the Global models are picking up on this system. Not sure yet what precip types will fall but we'll keep you posted on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 DMX already on board for the big storm:[/size]THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO [/size]IMPACT IOWA STILL BEYOND THE EXTENDED INTO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS [/size]SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SOMETIME [/size]BETWEEN DECEMBER 27-29. [/size]Interesting. They are usually slower to jump on the long range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The current state of the PV shows it rather strong over the Pole at 30mb... http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30a12.gif By Day 10, the Euro is suggesting it becoming more elongated...possibly weakening??? http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 GFS way warmer this run. Sadly exactly what I expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 GFS with 3-6 inch band from Iowa NE into most of S/C WI and NW IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The current state of the PV shows it rather strong over the Pole at 30mb... By Day 10, the Euro is suggesting it becoming more elongated...possibly weakening??? Looks like the warming from Siberia will push on it from that side and I would guess something is happening further west over western Europe to disrupt it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Man that storm has a lot of moisture with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Waste of a storm again if it plays out like all the others have this far. Extremely disappointing to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Waste of a storm again if it plays out like all the others have this far. Extremely disappointing to say the least.I wouldnt worry too much. Its 10 days out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 This graphic shows how strong the polar vortex is right now. Purple, white. This is the forecast. You can see the purples fade as we approach 1/3. Source: http://www.reggioemiliameteo.it/clima-stratosfera.phpIt's in Italian, but it's pretty easy to figure out what is what. Another take on it. 192 hours out. http://www.centrometeo.com/modelli-numerici/modelli-globali/4694-stratosfera-gfs-geopotenziale-temperatura Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I wouldnt worry too much. Its 10 days out yet.I know but it's been the overwhelming trend so far this winter and I see no reason for it to end anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Found where the vortex starts splitting in 10 days at 70 hPa. That's the beginning of the split Tom in the 30 hPa map you posted. It stretches from the bottom up and the splits at each level. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now. Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_T2m_namer_29.png Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121900/gfs_asnow_us_41.pngabout another shift se about 50-75 miles sounds about right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_T2m_namer_29.png Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.pngThe 0z looks a lot different. Little if any snow and cold air south of an Iowa to southern WI line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 0z looks a lot different. Little if any snow and cold air south of an Iowa to southern WI line. I didn't even know I was the 18z. Fixed. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Euro shows one piece of energy breaking out over the northern plains into the upper Midwest on the 25th and 26th with a widespread moderate snowfall. Then looks like a strong high is moving in. Could suppress the rest of the system to the south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 988 L in C. MO at HR 240. Really warm tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Yep another rainer. Late December and we're still dealing with rain. Teleconnections don't support any snow. Juicy system though. Kind of a bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 988 L in C. MO at HR 240. Really warm tho It's even warm than the 12z run. Very different run with no high to the north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 6z gfs shows the bulk of that storm getting cutoff and just sits in Texas before it finally ejects out to the north as a big rainmaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Careful what you say. People will want you banned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Euro ensembles are all over the place with the storm after Christmas. Several members show heavy snow in the midwest, but placement varies significantly. Others show nothing at all, others rain. Basically as you would expect right now, nobody has a clue what will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Odd so see so little cold air around on the Euro when its forecasting a -AO/NAO during this period (Day 7-10). Along with the North Pole, Greenland warms considerably which has rarely happened this season. Also of note, it seems the PV has begun to disrupt in the extended as there are clearly 2 separate pockets of arctic air 1) North America 2) Siberia. Like Bud said, the trend in the Euro EPS members are more wintry than a couple days ago. Saw this tweet from a Met: Disruption of the polar vortex has begun. Its going to take a lot more than this but the trend in NAM is there. I think the models are having issues in the longer range trying to figure out what is happening in the Pacific and the stratosphere. 00z EPS continues to develop the western ridge and trough south of the Aleutians in the extended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Gonna take time. Its not like the vortex breaks up one day and the effects are felt the next day. The gfs ensembles keep the AO positive through the run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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