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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


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I'll open up this topic for weather patterns and systems that are more than 5 days away. Discuss any ideas that you have, just keep the discussion civilized.

 

We're awaiting a predicted pattern change. Next week is supposed to be the week the polar vortex takes it's first punch from tropospheric warming coming up from the south.

 

One thing we're looking for is the migration of the ridge in the east to migrate northwards into the far north. That will at least bring down the AO and probably the NAO also.

 

EURO ensembles at the end of the run show lower heights expanding east into the Plains at day 10.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GEFS continue to show significant cooling the last 5 days or so of the month into the new year from NE/IA and points west as western/NW Canada begins to warm.

 

12z EPS replacing that was once a huge ridge south of the Aleutians with a trough in the Day 10-15 mean.  Could be the first signs of re-arranging the jet stream pattern in the Pacific and heading towards the analogs/climate models.

 

Pocket of cooler waters is forming right where the mean trough wants to develop as we head into January...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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I'll take the exact middle of the blend of all the 12z models. Pretty much equals the 18z GFS when you blend them together.

Late in November when we got hit with that snowstorm there was that blocking HP to the north and in this instance, the HP is almost in the same location.  Wonder how much this storm digs as it enters the 4 corners region.  That will be the key as to where this storm actually tracks.  GFS is usually quicker and ejects storms out faster, while the Euro typically likes to hold energy back a bit.

 

12z EPS had the majority of its members targeting NE/KS/SD/ND/MN...

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Late in November when we got hit with that snowstorm there was that blocking HP to the north and in this instance, the HP is almost in the same location. Wonder how much this storm digs as it enters the 4 corners region. That will be the key as to where this storm actually tracks. GFS is usually quicker and ejects storms out faster, while the Euro typically likes to hold energy back a bit.

 

12z EPS had the majority of its members targeting NE/KS/SD/ND/MN...

Can you remind me what to click to see the individual members? When I don't use it for awhile I tend to forget where that is. Thanks.

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Can you remind me what to click to see the individual members? When I don't use it for awhile I tend to forget where that is. Thanks.

Go to the tab that is under "EPS Precipitation & MSLP CONUS / 51 members"...its on the left side under the ECMWF group

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Tom - I have a very important flight the morning of Dec 28.  Are there any potential weather systems showing up that MAY be targeting our area around then?

Definitely, there is a potential major storm system in and around our region during this time frame.  All the Global models are picking up on this system.  Not sure yet what precip types will fall but we'll keep you posted on here.

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DMX already on board for the big storm:[/size]THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO  [/size]IMPACT IOWA STILL BEYOND THE EXTENDED INTO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS  [/size]SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SOMETIME  [/size]BETWEEN DECEMBER 27-29.  [/size]

Interesting. They are usually slower to jump on the long range

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The current state of the PV shows it rather strong over the Pole at 30mb...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30a12.gif

 

 

By Day 10, the Euro is suggesting it becoming more elongated...possibly weakening???

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

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The current state of the PV shows it rather strong over the Pole at 30mb...

 

 

 

By Day 10, the Euro is suggesting it becoming more elongated...possibly weakening???

 

 

 

Looks like the warming from Siberia will push on it from that side and I would guess something is happening further west over western Europe to disrupt it.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This graphic shows how strong the polar vortex is right now. Purple, white.

 

 

This is the forecast. You can see the purples fade as we approach 1/3.

 

 

Source: http://www.reggioemiliameteo.it/clima-stratosfera.php

It's in Italian, but it's pretty easy to figure out what is what.

 

Another take on it. 192 hours out.

 

 

http://www.centrometeo.com/modelli-numerici/modelli-globali/4694-stratosfera-gfs-geopotenziale-temperatura

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Found where the vortex starts splitting in 10 days at 70 hPa. That's the beginning of the split Tom in the 30 hPa map you posted. It stretches from the bottom up and the splits at each level.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now.

 

 

Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_T2m_namer_29.png

 

Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121900/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

about another shift se about 50-75 miles sounds about right

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Christmas Day is looking more seasonable now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_T2m_namer_29.png

 

Interesting storm setup along the baroclinic zone you guys were discussing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121818/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

The 0z looks a lot different. Little if any snow and cold air south of an Iowa to southern WI line.
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The 0z looks a lot different. Little if any snow and cold air south of an Iowa to southern WI line.

 

I didn't even know I was the 18z. Fixed.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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988 L in C. MO at HR 240. Really warm tho

 

It's even warm than the 12z run. Very different run with no high to the north.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Euro ensembles are all over the place with the storm after Christmas.  Several members show heavy snow in the midwest, but placement varies significantly.  Others show nothing at all, others rain.  Basically as you would expect right now, nobody has a clue what will happen. 

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Odd so see so little cold air around on the Euro when its forecasting a -AO/NAO during this period (Day 7-10).  Along with the North Pole, Greenland warms considerably which has rarely happened this season.  Also of note, it seems the PV has begun to disrupt in the extended as there are clearly 2 separate pockets of arctic air 1) North America 2) Siberia.

 

Like Bud said, the trend in the Euro EPS members are more wintry than a couple days ago.  

 

Saw this tweet from a Met:

 

 

Disruption of the polar vortex has begun. Its going to take a lot more than this but the trend in NAM is there.

 

CWgxRIVUwAAamzK.png

 

 

I think the models are having issues in the longer range trying to figure out what is happening in the Pacific and the stratosphere.  00z EPS continues to develop the western ridge and trough south of the Aleutians in the extended.

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