12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Steblow]

Get your moneyman lock your blocks, cock your glocks, how much for WildWisconsinWeather's block?

 

[East Dubzz]

Okay. Thanks. I was thinking that but didn't know for sure.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

 

Get your moneyman lock your blocks, cock your glocks, how much for WildWisconsinWeather's block?

 

 

 

Are those flowers for real?    This winter really has torched your town up.

 

Btw, get ready for a sleet and 32.1F rain fest.  J/k, hope not!

[ToastedRavs]

Thundersnow??? I've noticed the models are wrapping the convective precip back into the cold sector.

 

 

I fully expect numerous reports, official and unofficial, of thundersnow, and thundersleet! Especially in central and Eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin

[Money]

 

Get your moneyman lock your blocks, cock your glocks, how much for WildWisconsinWeather's block?

 

 

 

Hi.

[Money]

HRRR freezing line still in N. IL at HR 24

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122723/t2/temp_t22m_f24.png

[Madtown]

Going to be an interesting day tomorrow, but I think 5in of snow sleet look good

[Geos]

Isn't it the only model that does this?

 

Well the RGEM does wander over - at least the 12z did, then it corrects right away to the east. All other models travel in a straight line until they reach NE IL.

[Steblow]

Hi.

 

To my hard-hustlin' girls all around the world for ice

Get, get, get, get, get, get, get, get, get your moneyman

[Tom]

Lolipop in SE MN...

[hlcater]

get that Freezing Line away from linn county RAP!

[Steblow]

No, WWW lovin' from the NAM.

 

geos,  snow shutout.. can't be right.

[ToastedRavs]

The precip shield is currently just south of kc metropolitan area. Let us know what happens all the kc members out there!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

No, WWW lovin' from the NAM.

 

geos, shutout.. can't be right.

 

It's in line with my prediction, actually more bullish.  3-4" of pure snow vs the 3-4" of snow and sleet combined.  I'll take it I guess.  This might be the lowest snow map I've seen lately, now watch them all shift to less lol.

[Geos]

No, WWW lovin' from the NAM.

 

geos, shutout.. can't be right.

 

Lol, hi.

 

Not routing for the NAM.

 

The low took on a more circular structure on the update. I think it's going to pass just north of Shreveport.

 

[Money]

Nam showing 6 inches of sleet in eastern Iowa

 

That would be interesting

[gosaints]

Nam showing 6 inches of sleet in eastern Iowa

 

That would be interesting

Drifting sleet...

[Money]

NAM 4 KM looks odd

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122800/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_6.png

 

Then:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122800/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122800/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_8.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Lol, hi.

 

Not routing for the NAM.

 

The low took on a more circular structure on the update. I think it's going to pass just north of Shreveport.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1451269623362

 

I remember a couple days ago, most models seemed to have it moving through E Oklahoma near Tulsa early on.  No way that happens unless it funkily retrogrades.

[Money]

Look at all that precip streaming north:

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122800/full/cref_sfc_f18.png

[gosaints]

Look at all that precip streaming north:

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122800/full/cref_sfc_f18.png

About 3 tomorrow afternoon there should be an impressive system on radar...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122800/full/acsnw_sfc_f24.png

 

I hate to be the one but it's shifting north.  Last run put Geos over warning criteria for snow alone (6-8").

[ToastedRavs]

New Jim Flowers video out. He says you gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. He is holding. Counting on mid to upper level disturbance on west side ofstorm. Gotta hand it to him. He has guts. But, he is looking more wrong than right. He is throwing out the nam. We shall see

[Money]

I like how the HRRR actually has soundings available now.

 

Here is Madison's sounding at HR 18

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122800/skewt/skewt_MSN_99999_f18.png

[NH4NU]

Flower's throwing out NAM and includes decent analysis

[Money]

Milwaukee:

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122800/skewt/skewt_MKE_99999_f18.png

[james1976]

DMX was saying convection is very possible with 1-2"/hr rates. Widespread 9-11" totals and the snow may become wet and heavy and cause power outtages. Gonna be a heck of a day!

[Money]

Flower's throwing out NAM and includes decent analysis

 

So, he's throwing out every model but the model that gives E. NEB the most snow?

[Madtown]

When does this become more now casting than looking at models?

[Money]

When does this become more now casting than looking at models?

 

After 6z for me then it's RAP/HRRR and radar 

[Money]

RGEM HR 24

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif

[ToastedRavs]

When does this become more now casting than looking at models?

 

I say after the 0z runs. Although I am curious to hear any reports right now coming from KC area. Anyone?

[gosaints]

Rgem shows a much more believable.result here

[Money]

RGEM HR 19

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_019.png

 

HR 22

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_022.png

 

HR 24

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_024.png

[Money]

HR 26

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_026.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

RGEM HR 19

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_019.png

 

HR 22

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_022.png

 

HR 24

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_024.png

 

Not good, sleetfest it is.

[East Dubzz]

Holy sleet

[Money]

HR 27

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_027.png

 

HR 31

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015122800/I_nw_EST_2015122800_031.png

[Money]

Not good, sleetfest it is.

 

Yeah, really on the edge here. Looks like the sleet line gets to about FDL on this run.

[East Dubzz]

That's my guess of how this will play out. Lots of sleet followed by some snow on the backside .