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1/8 - 1/9 Plains/Lakes Cutter


Tom

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The LRC's dominant storm track continues to illustrate another storm system that develops in the central Plains and tracks towards the Great Lakes.  Where will this storm track?  Who will get snow or rain?  Another Northwoods special?  Let's discuss the various solutions.

 

Latest 12z GFS...

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My forecast is calling for Rain and mid to upper 30s for that time-frame.... ugh!!! I know its days away and hopefully the track changes for an all snowevent. We will see. There is nothing worse than getting a cold rain followed by arctic air.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This needs to go south so it can draw the colder air across IA instead of the +3 +4 850 temps over the snowpack while the storm tracks over the snowpack, neither of which make sense to me. Youd think it track along the leading edge of the snowpack and this would create enough cold air for snow.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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This needs to go south so it can draw the colder air across IA instead of the +3 +4 850 temps over the snowpack while the storm tracks over the snowpack, neither of which make sense to me. Youd think it track along the leading edge of the snowpack and this would create enough cold air for snow.

 

I am with you on that thinking.

 

NAO is going negative this week, hopefully that can influence the track.

 

GEFS ground temps a bit cooler than the operational. I don't see really any inversion either.

 

 

GGEM ensembles definitely colder.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I don't know what the GFS sees or doesn't see actually. There's a broad high to the north and the path of least resistance is straight east.

 

GFS has been lessening the amount of precip. with it for several runs.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Temps slightly colder north of the low on the 0z GFS late Thursday - 96 hours.

 

Low is farther south at 108 hours, rain snow line further south.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GGEM 1010 over Chicago

 

Better than passing to the west of you.

 

Getting closer to the GEM.

 

Go Saints - in el Niño, you gotta take what you can get!  :D

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Better than passing to the west of you.

 

Getting closer to the GEM.

 

Go Saints - in el Niño, you gotta take what you can get!  :D

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010400/gfs_asnow_ncus_25.png

 

That is so very true, I'll take a couple 6"+ storms in an El Nino winter, definitely are some out there that didn't feature any.

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GGEM almost looks the same. Has a period of mixed precip/light snow before this over parts of the Midwest.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm seeing the models starting to digest the -AO and paying close attention to how the northern jet is pressing each run farther south out of Canada near the U.S./Canadian border.  The wave seems to be digging farther S/SE in KS.

 

For example, last nights 00z Euro has the wave digging near SE KS but 2 nights ago it had it in W KS...big differences in just a 24 period.

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GFS so close to having this as an all snow event. The weak inversion that was showing up has pretty much blended out. Money should easily be all snow on this event and probably Wisconsinwx.

 

 

Sounding near Hartford, WI.

So close.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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