jaster220 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS still not budging. But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man. 20160105 12z GEFS 120hr MSLP.gif12z EPS keep shifting this storm farther off the East Coast and taking a more inland track from runs 2-3 days ago. This is going to be complicated for the models to figure out what to do with the second piece of energy along the arctic front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It looks like something wants to happen at this time frame, but it's just not quite there yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It looks like something wants to happen at this time frame, but it's just not quite there yet. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.pngWhat is interesting, the RPM/NAM at the end of the run have a swath of snow developing near the TX Panhandle. I'd give it a couple more days to see how the models handle this second piece of energy. Rule of Thumb suggests that the secondary piece is likely to be the stronger of the 2 and track up along the baraclinic zone/arctic front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man. 20160105 12z GEFS 120hr MSLP.gif18z GEFS continue to show more members cutting this second wave up near OH/IN...not off to the East http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter. Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up. This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter. Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up. This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.pngHahaha that gave me a good laugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter. Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up. This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol). I'm not opposed to either pretty sure Nebraska is going to need either/or given the way winter has went here so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hahaha that gave me a good laugh.I think Gary Lezak has been waiting for this one....prob part of the reason why he hasn't said much about the storm system just yet. A lot of pieces are scattered around and the models are having difficulty but should be starting to get a better read soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 00z NAM... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif 18z GFS... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif Look at all those "X's" scattered all over the place...very odd looking...need them to be tied closer together... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS has the second wave right on the tail of number one. Cuts it to NW indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well...00z GFS baby stepping with the second wave towards a decent cutter now...looks stronger at HR 78...500mb looking better also.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's stronger this run too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS has the second wave right on the tail of number one. Cuts it to NW indianaYup strengthens it down to 999 or so once it gets to Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yup strengthens it down to 999 or so once it gets to ChicagoGonna see a wide range of solution on this one in the next 48 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 00z GFS...ain't much YET...but heading in the right direction I'd say...give me 2" and I'd be happy because I know the ice/snow that is OTG now is going to be gone by Friday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 My idea still stands...good Ol' Pan handle hook in the making...once I saw the Euro a couple nights ago, I saw the vision where this could go... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The trend this season is for these waves to dig as they skirt the 4 corners region and eject out into the Pan Handle. How many storms have we seen this season that blossomed in this area??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The trend this season is for these waves to dig as they skirt the 4 corners region and eject out into the Pan Handle. How many storms have we seen this season that blossomed in this area???Ill dream tonight about all of the energy coming out at once.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'll take this! Just get this to phase a bit more and end up with a wider snow band. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ggem way east and takes the low in the OV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I wanna see snow 5 degrees and brown, no es bien Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ggem way east and takes the low in the OVAs expected going to see drastically different solutions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I bet there will be massive spread in the ensemble members Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the NAM wants to do something with the energy too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Creator of the thread should expand the date until the 10th. Unless you want to create a separate thread for the second wave.I was just going to post on this thought and maybe you should separate these systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'll take this! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.pngJust get this to phase a bit more and end up with a wider snow band. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010600/gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png That's another Geos special! Racking up those 6"+ storms like they're nothing, would already be your 3rd of this still young season if it happened like this (or close to it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 With the amount of blocking already in place, I'd imagine an earlier phase in future runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the NAM wants to do something with the energy too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_ref_frzn_eus_28.pngLooks pretty good. Might be a sneaky storm for someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Thread for the second wave that rides up the baroclinic zone. Looks to be in the developing stages, but it is not all that far away in the future. Seems like something is bound to happen with this energy. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wonder who is going to win this battle...GFS or EURO...GEFS are much father west than the Euro Ensembles...however, Euro ensembles have been shifting westward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 GGEM Ensembles at HR 96 http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_096.png http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_096.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 108 Couple phased out bombs (some down to 985) http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_108.png http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_108.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 UKMET HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 You'd think that on the heels of a major arctic attack and the way the LRC has set up this season we'd see a major storm swing through the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 UKMET HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif The UKMET is always NW, the fact that it's SE of our ideal track isn't a great sign at this point. Of course, still a few days for a NW shift to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The UKMET is always NW, the fact that it's SE of our ideal track isn't a great sign at this point. Of course, still a few days for a NW shift to continue. Did you see the 0z run from last night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z ukie http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Went from a OTS solution to a sub 995 L over Indiana in one run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 JMA/GFS/UKIE vs GGEM/EURO...of course, 00z Euro hasn't come in yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 JMA Total Precip: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010512/jma_apcpn_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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