1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[Geos]

GGEM further east.

 

 

[Money]

Euro looks meh through 72

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160106/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[Money]

96

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160106/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[winterfreak]

EURO nothing like a GFS solution.

[Money]

EURO nothing like a GFS solution.

 

Getting closer. 12z euro was way out east and nearly OTS. 

[Grizzcoat]

The plates and dishes are on the table for a major event--- exactly where they are placed and who sits where is yet to be determined.

[Money]

The plates and dishes are on the table for a major event--- exactly where they are placed and who sits where is yet to be determined.

 

Euro show any snow at all?

[Money]

0z GEFS:

 

http://i.imgur.com/LSXqbcO.png

[Grizzcoat]

Euro show any snow at all?

No WX bell sub right now. AccuWX for me doesn't update 00Z until 1am. Will post if it has any snow for any of us-- unless someone beats me to it. 

[Grizzcoat]

From the surface MSLP from the Euro every 24hrs,, and if correct-- would be a dream to be in the Central Great Lakes-- Lake Effect along with a  strong synoptic system

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f96.gif

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f102.gif

[Tom]

00z Euro def trending NW and has a 992mb SLP in N OH at HR 108...doesn't wrap around any snow on the cold side of the storm though.  Still plenty of time as this thing is showing signs of what could be a major storm as the jet buckles

[Tom]

06z GFS showing this storm going neg tilt a little earlier.  This storm has soo much potential to become a Great Lakes bomb.  I'm not going to be by the comp for the majority of the day so if you guys can keep the color maps coming that would be much appreciated!

 

Looks like this storm comes straight out of the Gulf and heads due NNE...some of the wildest storms have formed this way.  Going to be fun tracking this system.

[Tom]

00z EPS playing catch up...huge shift NW now...right in line with the GEFS...King Euro didn't sniff this storm track out...

[jaster220]

I think Gary Lezak has been waiting for this one....prob part of the reason why he hasn't said much about the storm system just yet.  A lot of pieces are scattered around and the models are having difficulty but should be starting to get a better read soon.

 

With the amount of blocking already in place, I'd imagine an earlier phase in future runs...

 

The plates and dishes are on the table for a major event--- exactly where they are placed and who sits where is yet to be determined.

 

00z Euro def trending NW and has a 992mb SLP in N OH at HR 108...doesn't wrap around any snow on the cold side of the storm though.  Still plenty of time as this thing is showing signs of what could be a major storm as the jet buckles

 

 

[Money]

Nam looks interesting

 

996.4 in eastern il

[gosaints]

Nam looks interesting

 

996.4 in eastern il

Looks like there is going to be a nice surface wave.  Issue seems to be the timing of cold air to go with it.  I think you might be in a good spot

[gosaints]

GFS.... So close

[OKwx2k4]

Congrats everyone up there. You guys are going to have some fun.

[gosaints]

Congrats everyone up there. You guys are going to have some fun.

Maybe still a tiny sliver of snow

[Tom]

What does it show?

[winterfreak]

Well that was a nice trend while it lasted. On to the EURO.

[Tony]

Nam looks interesting

 

996.4 in eastern il

Has some juice to it for sure.

[gosaints]

What does it show?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010612/gfs_asnow_us_25.png

[Tom]

Thanks...I'm not discounting anything until this storm starts developing. Way to much jet stream energy and GOM moisture in play. This is a dynamic situation.

[gosaints]

Thanks...I'm not discounting anything until this storm starts developing. Way to much jet stream energy and GOM moisture in play. This is a dynamic situation.

GGEM has a nice storm further east but the cold air is late to the party there

[Hawkeye]

12z UK revving it up pretty good, albeit way too far east for Iowa to get anything.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[winterfreak]

GFS is my only hope. Hardly any moisture being thrown this way on any of the models.

[hlcater]

The QPF seems really compact, needs to spread west or most of us will miss out.

[jaster220]

Couple looks at 12z Euro - dynamic system - can't say "zzzzz-fest"   Which model will be 1st to sniff cold air coming into play??

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

 

The GFS shows in snowing here, albeit less, so where is it on this map!?

 

I got a strong feeling I'll have the snow and sleet pack on the ground come late Saturday. Can probably handle 0.5" of rain. I would imagine areas further north and west will hang on to their snow/ice cover, and gain some before the final wave comes up. Should help with cold air advection.

[Geos]

EURO is definitely got something good cooking.

 

Goes from this...

 

 

to this.

 

[westMJim]

12z UK revving it up pretty good, albeit way too far east for Iowa to get anything.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

If (and that is a big if) this were to happen that would be a good location for my area. as always time will tell.

[Geos]

Couple looks at 12z Euro - dynamic system - can't say "zzzzz-fest"   Which model will be 1st to sniff cold air coming into play??

 

20160106 12z Euro 96hr Map.gif

 

20160106 12z Euro 96hr Map-2.gif

 

What's the dark purple line and the dashed light purple line? I know one is the freezing line, but which.

[Tom]

Glad to see the Euro trending this storm towards the Lower Lakes! Great maps Jaster and Geo's!

 

What does the snowfall map look like? Also, seems like the Euro is phasing this beast much earlier than prior runs. Classic bomb setup. Bizzard not out of the realm of possibility?

 

30-Day cycle theory in play here.

[Geos]

NAO dips pretty good this weekend.

 

 

The 12z NAM looked really good at the end of its run.

[winterfreak]

Storm is weak sauce down here. Doesn't bomb out until it gets near the lakes.

[Tom]

We are still 3-4 days out and the energy hasn't been even close to getting sampled. I'd also watch for earlier phasing as we get closer. 2 days ago I saw the trends in the Euro and posted maps showing the trends in both jet streams. With all the blocking available, I'd imagine an earlier phase and shifts in the track. If this thing can go neg tilt down in Texarkana or nearby...someone will get buried.

[jaster220]

What's the dark purple line and the dashed light purple line? I know one is the freezing line, but which.

 

Not 100% sure, but looks like pink dashed would be 32*F at 850mb, and solid purple 32*F at 2m? Prolly gonna dynamically cool with hvy wet snow bringing surf temps down quickly..

[Iowawx]

Hope this one comes north. Would like to get snow from this in eastern Iowa. It does seem like there is a NW trend.