1883-84 Through 1892-93...The Most Amazing 10 Year Run In PNW History

[snow_wizard]

I was just thinking today about what I would consider the most incredible block of 10 winters that have occured in the lowlands of the PNW since records began in 1850.  I think there is little doubt 1883-84 through 1892-93 would have to be considered the winner hands down. 

 

During that 10 year stretch the Puget Sound region averaged 25.3" of snow per winter and Portland averaged 22.0"  Very impressively most of the winters had region wide events with Puget Sound and Portland putting up pretty similar numbers on all of them.  Using December 2008 as a yardstick I would say that six of the winters had events equal to or greater than Dec 2008.  Just absolutely mind boggling when you consider December 2008 was easily the top region wide event since January 1969 (with the possible exception of Nov 1985). 

 

Besides all of the snow 7 of the winters had major Arctic blasts all accompanied by snowfall.  Looking at the numbers it's hard to believe we are talking about the same PNW that we have today.  Anyway here is a rundown of the 10 winters for Portland and the Puget Sound region.  I will list total winter snowfall, snowiest month, and extreme minimum for the winter.

 

Portland

 

1883-84 - 25.5, 18.5 in Feb, 7

1884-85 - 35.1, 34.1 in Dec, 12 (probably the coldest Dec since 1850)

1885-86 - 9.3, 9.3 in Jan, 15 (this is an event that is totally overlooked, but was a very nice Arctic blast / snow event)

1886-87 - 19.2, 18.9 in Feb, 9 (probably the coldest Feb since 1850)

1887-88 - 14.0, 12.0 in Jan, -2 (bitterly cold month for the Portland area)

1888-89 - 1.3, ..., 23 (lame winter)

1889-90 - 41.6, 35.3 in Jan, 10 (one of the most well rounded winters on record for the NW)

1890-91 - 13.0, 11.4 in Feb, 23

1891-92 - 0.7, ..., 27 (El Nino)

1892-93 - 60.9, 20.0 in Feb, 8

 

Puget Sound (had to use a variety of stations due to erratic record keeping for any one location)

 

1883-84 - 35.3, 33.33 in Feb, 7 (huge 20" snowstorm in Seattle on the 20th).

1884-85 - 33.5, 31.5 in Dec, 7

1885-86 - 17.0, 17.0 in Jan, 14 (8 consecutive sub freezing high temps in Tacoma with a foot of snow on the ground)

1886-87 - 21.5, 19.5 in Feb, 14 (Tacoma)

1887-88 - 10.5, 10.5 in Jan, 8 (Tacoma snowfall, Seattle temps)

1888-89 - 1.3, ..., (not sure of station)

1889-90 - 62.8, 32.0 in Jan, 10 (Bainbridge Island)(16.5" snowstorm on Jan 1 & 2 accompanied by major Arctic blast)

1890-91 - 15.3, 14.2 in Feb, 24 (stands as coldest Feb on record for the city of Seattle)

1891-92 - 2.2, 2.2 in Dec (Seattle)

1892-93 - 58.0, 30.5 in Feb, 3 (coldest low temps ever recorded in the city of Seattle).  Late Jan / early Feb had 45 inches of snow in 7 days accompanied by severe cold.  Amazing event!

[crf450ish]

Seems to coincide with the Dalton Minimum. I'm learning that the residual effects of a Solar minimum can have lingering effects on the weather on earth. That, combined with the unusually high volcanic activity during the 1800's. There's a connection somewhere here, modern science has yet to connect the dots. Isn't it intriguing how volcanism seems to increase when sunspots decrease?

[snow_wizard]

Seems to coincide with the Dalton Minimum. I'm learning that the residual effects of a Solar minimum can have lingering effects on the weather on earth. That, combined with the unusually high volcanic activity during the 1800's. There's a connection somewhere here, modern science has yet to connect the dots. Isn't it intriguing how volcanism seems to increase when sunspots decrease?

 

That could be part of it.  Krakatoa could have contributed to the first half of the 10 year period pretty easily.  I think this big solar minimum coming up may be our last chance to see our climate bounce back to some extent during our lifetimes.

 

It is encouraging to see other locations have had major cold anomaly event in recent years.  Our turn has to come sometime.

[BLI snowman]

1858-59 through 1867-68 is pretty nice as well. I suspect many multi-year periods in the 1800s were similarly impressive. Our climate was simply a lot colder back then. The annual snowfall average up through 1899 was very likely in the 20-25" range for Portland and Seattle.

 

1858-59 had a major arctic event in early December, several snow events later on

1859-60 had a tremendously cold November/December, with a subfreezing monthly average at Vancouver in December

1860-61 was fairly mediocre with one moderate snow/ice event in January

1861-62 was simply the best

1862-63 was mostly mild but it was capped off with a massive snow and ice event in February

1863-64 had a major arctic blast in early January

1864-65 had frequent cold/snow throughout, with an extreme late season arctic event in early March

1865-66 had an epic December and January with several feet of snow

1866-67 had an outrageously cold March

1867-68 was probably a poor man's 1861-62 but a rich man's every other winter

[snow_wizard]

1858-59 through 1867-68 is pretty nice as well. I suspect many multi-year periods in the 1800s were similarly impressive. Our climate was simply a lot colder back then. The annual snowfall average up through 1899 was very likely in the 20-25" range for Portland and Seattle.

 

1858-59 had a major arctic event in early December, several snow events later on

1859-60 had a tremendously cold November/December, with a subfreezing monthly average at Vancouver in December

1860-61 was fairly mediocre with one moderate snow/ice event in January

1861-62 was simply the best

1862-63 was mostly mild but it was capped off with a massive snow and ice event in February

1863-64 had a major arctic blast in early January

1864-65 had frequent cold/snow throughout, with an extreme late season arctic event in early March

1865-66 had an epic December and January with several feet of snow

1866-67 had an outrageously cold March

1867-68 was probably a poor man's 1861-62 but a rich man's every other winter

 

That was a great run also.  The winter before was also very good with Feb 1858 having an extraordinary blast of cold and snow around mid month.  I think the period I posted about was just a bit more impressive for region wide events though.  1858-59 and 1859-60 were cold at Fort Steilacom, but were a bit snow starved.  Out of the group 1861-62 and 1865-66 were probably my favorite.  No doubt the March 1865 event was incredible.  1867-68 was very cold, but with very little snow for the Puget Sound region.

[BLI snowman]

That was a great run also.  The winter before was also very good with Feb 1858 having an extraordinary blast of cold and snow around mid month.  I think the period I posted about was just a bit more impressive for region wide events though.  1858-59 and 1859-60 were cold at Fort Steilacom, but were a bit snow starved.  Out of the group 1861-62 and 1865-66 were probably my favorite.  No doubt the March 1865 event was incredible.  1867-68 was very cold, but with very little snow for the Puget Sound region.

 

The jet suppression in January 1868 was undoubtedly huge. Newspaper reports from Eugene indicated around 4 feet fell there that month. 

[snow_wizard]

The jet suppression in January 1868 was undoubtedly huge. Newspaper reports from Eugene indicated around 4 feet fell there that month. 

 

Wow!  That kind of snow with the long lasting cold wave that followed must have been unreal for them.  It is interesting that the 1858 through 1868 period didn't seem to pull off the region wide snow events as consistently as the 1883 to 1893 period.  I do think for cold 1858 through 1868 was more impressive though. 

 

It absolutely boggles my mind how much more impressive this climate used to be.  Looking at numbers from New York the change from then to now has been minuscule by comparison.  I think that is one reason I have so much trouble accepting what this climate has become.

[BLI snowman]

Wow!  That kind of snow with the long lasting cold wave that followed must have been unreal for them.  It is interesting that the 1858 through 1868 period didn't seem to pull off the region wide snow events as consistently as the 1883 to 1893 period.  I do think for cold 1858 through 1868 was more impressive though. 

 

It absolutely boggles my mind how much more impressive this climate used to be.  Looking at numbers from New York the change from then to now has been minuscule by comparison.  I think that is one reason I have so much trouble accepting what this climate has become.

 

1861-62 and 1889-90 are my two favorite winters from the 19th century. Major cold spells at different points of the season and they also both had major floods. Would also love to see some numbers from 1846-47 but I don't think any hard data exists.

 

The 1888-89 and 1891-92 suckfests can both be explained pretty well with the ENSO state. Even back then our climate was not immune from the occasional mild/snowless years with 50 degree warm front drizzle as the default weather type. Of course in both cases we quickly crashed into strong La Nina mode and saw majorly awesome follow-up winters.

[snow_wizard]

1861-62 and 1889-90 are my two favorite winters from the 19th century. Major cold spells at different points of the season and they also both had major floods. Would also love to see some numbers from 1846-47 but I don't think any hard data exists.

 

The 1888-89 and 1891-92 suckfests can both be explained pretty well with the ENSO state. Even back then our climate was not immune from the occasional mild/snowless years with 50 degree warm front drizzle as the default weather type. Of course in both cases we quickly crashed into strong La Nina mode and saw majorly awesome follow-up winters.

 

I will be interested to see what happens next winter if we have a strong La Nina as some models are advertising.  Out of the past 5 cases of a strong Nino crashing to a strong Nina 4 of the winters had major Arctic blasts.  The only exception was 1973-74.  The 5 cases where it happened are...

 

1889-90

1942-43

1973-74

1988-89

1998-99

 

All of the major Arctic blasts occurred in the late December to very early Feb time frame which is the part of the winter that has the most potential.

[Jesse]

What I wouldn't give to see our climate even get close to what it was back then.

[Phil]

Looking at numbers from New York the change from then to now has been minuscule by comparison. I think that is one reason I have so much trouble accepting what this climate has become.

You guys are being affected by the longer term broadening/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells, which through reanalysis, began during the late 1880s. The drought in SoCal is occurring for the same reason. South of 40N on the East Coast is also feeling the effects.

[snow_wizard]

You guys are being affected by the longer term broadening/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells, which through reanalysis, began during the late 1880s. The drought in SoCal is occurring for the same reason. South of 40N on the East Coast is also feeling the effects.

 

What's your prognosis for improvement as the possible solar grand minimum unfolds?  This stuff probably is cyclical I would imagine.

[Phil]

What's your prognosis for improvement as the possible solar grand minimum unfolds? This stuff probably is cyclical I would imagine.

There's definitely a lot of variation (plus a strong solar correlation) in the proxies for low frequency Hadley/Walker cell tendencies. Should all go as it has in the past, a retraction should begin shortly.

[snow_wizard]

There's definitely a lot of variation (plus a strong solar correlation) in the proxies for low frequency Hadley/Walker cell tendencies. Should all go as it has in the past, a retraction should begin shortly.

 

It's nice to know there is a hard science explanation for this besides just simple AGW which fails to explain the magnitude of the January warming we have seen.

[Black Hole]

It's nice to know there is a hard science explanation for this besides just simple AGW which fails to explain the magnitude of the January warming we have seen.

The collapse of January continues to astound me. Looks unlikely we see any redemption this year, although that could change if something happens towards the end of the month. 

[snow_wizard]

The collapse of January continues to astound me. Looks unlikely we see any redemption this year, although that could change if something happens towards the end of the month. 

 

I'm beginning to become convinced there is a lot more to the January collapse than most people think.  There is no reason to think it will continue forever...or even close to forever. 

 

From the studying I've done it appears the entire West and particularly the northern half of the West has suffered the same fate as the Western lowlands over the past 30 years.  It's just much more apparent in this region because it's such a borderline climate for snow.  The recent 3 degrees of warming in January has enormous implications for us.  Pretty unreal to see a 3 degree rise when global temps have only risen maybe a third of a degree in that time.

[Black Hole]

I'm beginning to become convinced there is a lot more to the January collapse than most people think.  There is no reason to think it will continue forever...or even close to forever. 

 

From the studying I've done it appears the entire West and particularly the northern half of the West has suffered the same fate as the Western lowlands over the past 30 years.  It's just much more apparent in this region because it's such a borderline climate for snow.  The recent 3 degrees of warming in January has enormous implications for us.  Pretty unreal to see a 3 degree rise when global temps have only risen maybe a third of a degree in that time.

You are exactly right. No record lows here in SLC in about 35 years, I think the last one was 1979. Granted all winter months in SLC are seeing long stretches of few to no record lows, but January has clearly been worse. 

 

I hope you are right about the change. I can't see how how this can go on forever. 

[Deweydog]

I'm beginning to become convinced there is a lot more to the January collapse than most people think.  There is no reason to think it will continue forever...or even close to forever. 

 

From the studying I've done it appears the entire West and particularly the northern half of the West has suffered the same fate as the Western lowlands over the past 30 years.  It's just much more apparent in this region because it's such a borderline climate for snow.  The recent 3 degrees of warming in January has enormous implications for us.  Pretty unreal to see a 3 degree rise when global temps have only risen maybe a third of a degree in that time.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Whats close to forever? Is there a wall or sign? ?