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"Slipt Flow". ..


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#1
richard mann

Posted 09 January 2016 - 12:34 PM

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From "Cliff Mass's" (Prof. Atmospheric Science's at University of Washington.) Blog, entry for Jan. 8th, 2016.
 
Split Personality: The Future of Winter 2016 over the West Coast of North America
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/01/split-personality-future-of-winter-2016.html


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#2
crf450ish

Posted 09 January 2016 - 04:01 PM

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What are your thoughts on this Split Flow pattern in relation to the rest of the winter, going into spring? In terms of what it will produce for the west coast weather wise. 



#3
richard mann

Posted 12 January 2016 - 01:30 AM

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What are your thoughts on this Split Flow pattern in relation to the rest of the winter, going into spring? In terms of what it will produce for the west coast weather wise.

 
.. First, per my view, a "Spit Flow" is merely the product of a more radical transition where looking at either whether or both, the general expansion of colder air mass moving and spreading more southward and more to its general regress back north(These two ideas both looked at together occurring more "inner-seasonally" and regularly. Each taking about two weeks.)or, where looking at the slowed movement and pace of colder air more eastward where shifting to a pace more stepped up or assertive, or vice-versa. This, with either one of these transitions leading to a more radical steering of the main flow of colder air mass:=causing it to "cut off" and separate from the one previously having been established.
 
 This can be shown fairly easily. .. If you look at what I'd suggested might happen more at the time where looking at colder air's both more latitudinal and longitudinal potential both movement and distribution wise back on the 26th of Dec.@, .. account for the fact that is has taken placewith checking the link here just belowthis, together with what I've suggested further more recently on the 8th of Jan. @, … you'll see that all of this will correlate with what I've suggested above. 
 
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/Portal Ohio/e3.html#GOES
{.. Close the main "Welcome" overlay, along with the main "menu" just above the date adjustment element. Then within that element move back to the 25th of Dec. with clicking on main left-pointing double arrow, .. click on the "minus" (reduce image size.) optional upper right, .. move the image for the 25th of Dec. to the right, centering it to a view more Pan Pacific, .. then click on the main right pointing, "forward" arrow, to animate all of the daily images for all dates through to nearer to the present. And then  finally, "run" these images againas with the first time through the images had to load in.}
 
.. With this, with looking at this winter season so far certainly, we've had plenty of cold air near enough upstream either to the NW or WNW and where looking at its main source regions and areas, or either, more West, out over the Pacific and having moved there from further West or WNW, … set together with main moisture generation South with the "Nino", .. to have provided for plenty of more basic differentiation between the two, and so in turn the level of definition that we've been seeing main pattern-wise.
 
Note more in particularly with checking through the main images suggested pointed to above, that with colder air's .. more initial slowing from Dec. 25th through to the end of the year, while at the same time having been spreading daily more south, …
 
".. Later on the 24th, earlier on the 25th of Dec. began to move and spread more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so daily more through to the 8th of January or so. / [While at the same time] being set to continue its current slower movement more eastward for the next four or five days through to just before the beginning of the New Year." - Posted on the 26th of Dec.
 
… that it had been moving more meridionally (directly) south. 
 
This, with then, where cold air movement had been transitioning to a gradually more stepped up pace eastward more longitudinally beginning with the New Year, some of the cold having moved more south's having been left to its own; by degrees "cut off" from the main track and more general flow of cold, again, moving gradually but steadily more strongly eastward. General propensity of movement (momentum.) where looking at each more specific mass of colder air, along together with topography, also being general considerations / having been factors here. 
 
This general scenario's described here just above working to "Spilt" the "flow" by degrees, ... through until the point more where main and broader cold had begun to "regress" more northward daily, while also at the same time having begun to slow its pace east again, over the 8th and 9th where looked at more together. …. Which will, where looking more forward, work to generate a more meridional type of patterning again. 
 
" .. should begin to regress back more northward gradually and progressively, daily more, from this point forward … while … on the 9th of January, begin to move gradually but steadily more slowly east." - Posted on the 8th of Jan.. 
 
$ .. To answer your question above, .. "This" type of patterning and scenario / These types of transitions, .. should repeat somewhat. .. Working to generate some somewhat similar types of "Spilt Flow", and patterning more.


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#4
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 January 2016 - 11:33 AM

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I would think that it should give us more rain down here in Southern California. It did so right after the new year, but since then we just have dying fronts and inside sliders. This is pretty much what we had the last 4 years to get us into our record drought. I have a feeling climate change is going to cause drier winters in California from now on.



#5
richard mann

Posted 20 January 2016 - 01:23 PM

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I would think that it should give us more rain down here in Southern California. It did so right after the new year, but since then we just have dying fronts and inside sliders. This is pretty much what we had the last 4 years to get us into our record drought. I have a feeling climate change is going to cause drier winters in California from now on.

 
If you'll look at the present situation and circumstance "Mr. Marine Layer", you'll see that it's in fact taken the second main tier (more northern separation of the Jet's. / broader field-wave of cold out of the north's.) having dropped south far enough, to have pressed main moisture into a position more conducive to precip. generation more south. More likely, with the depth of cold more generally at this seasonal point. 
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html  (Don't neglect the animation potential available at this site-page.)
 
This, with the more initial (more southern) tier's having moved further southward and so having worked to steer main moisture more to the east. .. I'm sure this more initial wave of cold more basic scenario has played out at some points also where looking back at December, probably even November and earlier this colder/wetter season.
 
.. Main and broader cold currently still retracting north at this point @ with its otherwise also at the same time still slower movement more longitudinally east, looked at together with its current more general seasonal expansion south, even so, this second more northern tier of cold has been able to move and remain sufficiently south to have steered main moisture into most of CA over the past week or so. (Of course.)


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