Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The active pattern continues and the models now finally are indicating a potentially significant storm threat later this week. LRC/30-day cycle proved to be a valued tool to predict this storm. Let's discuss. 00z GGEM forms a strong system that tracks towards the Lower Lakes. The storm actually gets down to 986mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 You beat me to it by seconds! Get ready, set, go!!! 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM goes from this: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160111/00Z/f102/sfcconus.png to this: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160111/00Z/f114/sfcconus.png Seems kind of odd how it would go SE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The problems I see with the GGEM is that it forms a piece of energy in the Gulf which takes it up the EC. Weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The key will be what happens to the Mon/Tue Clipper that hits the Lakes and then bombs out in SE Canada which retrogrades the trough in Canada westward. I think the -NAO is going to play a factor into this as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 If I saw the GFS right it gets it down to 992. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160111/00Z/f138/24hkucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 If I saw the GFS right it gets it down to 992. Gets it down to 988 near Madison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Money, if you get the GFS ensembles please post. l'd like to see if they trended in any specific direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The key will be what happens to the Mon/Tue Clipper that hits the Lakes and then bombs out in SE Canada which retrogrades the trough in Canada westward. I think the -NAO is going to play a factor into this as well. So we want it to back up as much as possible then. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 So we want it to back up as much as possible then. Not for here, no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GEM is odd. None of the models seem to have a real handle on it as of now obviously. None are very favorable but we'll see. Interested to see what the EURO does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Someone said due to the clipper and blocking, this will be a wild week on the models. He will probably be right. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not for here, no Right - want to build heights in front of it. NAO looks to be about -1 by the 16th. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Someone said due to the clipper and blocking, this will be a wild week on the models. He will probably be right.Bingo...Euro has been the most consistent model thus far with the track. The other models are playing catch up. IF the Euro doesn't skip a beat tonight, I'd say odds are this will be more of a bowling ball storm, similar to last year's SB Blizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Bingo...Euro has been the most consistent model thus far with the track. The other models are playing catch up. IF the Euro doesn't skip a beat tonight, I'd say odds are this will be more of a bowling ball storm, similar to last year's SB Blizzard.If you're right, I hope it has more of a spread the wealth component. Certainly seems like it has potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 wagons west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 wagons westNot likely given the pattern...no ensembles support of a western lakes cutter...majority are south of Chicago. Wish casting??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 0z EURO HR 96 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160111/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160111/00Z/f096/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like it is going to cut through OK like it did on the 12z run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 No way this storm cuts NW. The amount of blocking in southern Canada showing up on the Euro is impressive. The whole pattern retrogrades west in Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z Euro is a bit farther SE this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks a little warm at 96 based on above map. Low is still in Texas obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 HR 120 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160111/00Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not as much precip this run...less impressive run tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here was 12z btw: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png Looks pretty much the same if not a bit more NW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nice track at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z Euro...Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 What was the big difference from 12z to 0z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z Euro... That's as dry as the GGEM.Guessing the storm doesn't go negative tilt until later... Of course that's 10:1 ratio too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 As mentioned-- models are going to have a difficult time with this until maybe mid/late week when the clipper is out of the way and the blocking is realized. Wasn't going to post this because it's so odd looking--but here is the 06Z GFS-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 As mentioned-- models are going to have a difficult time with this until maybe mid/late week when the clipper is out of the way and the blocking is realized. Wasn't going to post this because it's so odd looking--but here is the 06Z GFS--USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_147.gifwhat the heck?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 As mentioned-- models are going to have a difficult time with this until maybe mid/late week when the clipper is out of the way and the blocking is realized. Wasn't going to post this because it's so odd looking--but here is the 06Z GFS--USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_147.gifI wouldnt mind lol Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS also gets the clipper parade started after this storm moves thru. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 West of the east coast.Not likely given the pattern...no ensembles support of a western lakes cutter...majority are south of Chicago. Wish casting??? 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Based on what teleconnections and models show. If the GFS has this right as currently modeled I would be shocked. It would very strange On another note if that cold air mass does get blown out that quickly as depicted on the GFS thank Nino. That jet... The blocking that we do have currently isnt slowing things down nearly as much as it normally would. The NAM bust temps into the 30s on thursday so I guess I could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I don't know, GFS has done well this winter. So I guess we'll see. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS snoozefest. Another borderline event. this time in mid january Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS takes the low I to the Great Lakes Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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