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1/15 - 1/16 Winter Storm


Tom

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The active pattern continues and the models now finally are indicating a potentially significant storm threat later this week.  LRC/30-day cycle proved to be a valued tool to predict this storm.  Let's discuss.

 

00z GGEM forms a strong system that tracks towards the Lower Lakes.  The storm actually gets down to 986mb

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The key will be what happens to the Mon/Tue Clipper that hits the Lakes and then bombs out in SE Canada which retrogrades the trough in Canada westward.  I think the -NAO is going to play a factor into this as well.

 

So we want it to back up as much as possible then.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Not for here, no

 

Right - want to build heights in front of it.

 

NAO looks to be about -1 by the 16th.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Someone said due to the clipper and blocking, this will be a wild week on the models. He will probably be right.

Bingo...Euro has been the most consistent model thus far with the track.  The other models are playing catch up.  IF the Euro doesn't skip a beat tonight, I'd say odds are this will be more of a bowling ball storm, similar to last year's SB Blizzard.

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Bingo...Euro has been the most consistent model thus far with the track. The other models are playing catch up. IF the Euro doesn't skip a beat tonight, I'd say odds are this will be more of a bowling ball storm, similar to last year's SB Blizzard.

If you're right, I hope it has more of a spread the wealth component. Certainly seems like it has potential.
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00z Euro...

 

That's as dry as the GGEM.

Guessing the storm doesn't go negative tilt until later...

 

Of course that's 10:1 ratio too.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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As mentioned-- models are going to have a difficult time with this until maybe mid/late week when the clipper is out of the way and the blocking is realized. Wasn't going to post this because it's so odd looking--but here is the 06Z GFS--USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_147.gif

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As mentioned-- models are going to have a difficult time with this until maybe mid/late week when the clipper is out of the way and the blocking is realized. Wasn't going to post this because it's so odd looking--but here is the 06Z GFS--attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWI72_sfc_147.gif

I wouldnt mind lol

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Based on what teleconnections and models show.  If the GFS has this right as currently modeled I would be shocked.  It would very strange

 

On another note if that cold air mass does get blown out that quickly as depicted on the GFS thank Nino.  That jet...  The blocking that we do have currently isnt slowing things down nearly as much as it normally would.

 

The NAM bust temps into the 30s on thursday so I guess I could happen.

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