1/15 - 1/16 Winter Storm

[Niko]

Cant wait to see the outcome of this storm. Fun tracking for sure.

[Tom]

all the ensembles are showing a western lakes cutter, not sure what you're talking about.

Nearly 50 out of 51 Euro Ensemble members have the storm cutting near the lower lakes or a bit SE.  Your prob reading into the GEFS way to much.  Actually, the GEFS are trending SE...pick your model as you chose.

[Guest daniel1]

Looks like we have a wish caster.

[Tom]

00z NAM looks like it starts digging/phasing towards the end of its run.  Lot's of time to see how this one plays out.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Nearly 50 out of 51 Euro Ensemble members have the storm cutting near the lower lakes or a bit SE.  Your prob reading into the GEFS way to much.  Actually, the GEFS are trending SE...pick your model as you chose.

 

Are there a number of cutters to N Indiana/S Lower Michigan in there?

[Tom]

Are there a number of cutters to N Indiana/S Lower Michigan in there?

Plenty...

[Tom]

I won't buy into any model till the players are east of the Rockies and beginning to develop.  Models having difficult time figuring out what to do with the pieces of energy....one to the north & south...as well as the retrograding trough near Hudson Bay.

[hlcater]

if this storm plays its cards right could be a big storm around here.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

if this storm plays its cards right could be a big storm around here.

 

It would probably have to track to Dubuque to give NW Iowa a big storm, I'd say that's unlikely.

[hlcater]

I'm in E IA, so there is a decent chance(changed location to reflect that) NWLinnIA is kinda misleading 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'm in E IA, so there is a decent chance

 

Oh yeah, I didn't see that, I saw NW, but didn't register Linn is the county you're in (or city).

[Geos]

One thing I noticed at the end of the NAM is that the cold air is moving southward faster than on the GFS.

 

It's picking up on low level cold air better over snow covered areas.

[hlcater]

GFS taking her straight east thru missu, colder too.

[Geos]

Starting to see a trend somewhat now.

 

Low wants to cut through KS into MO on most models.

 

 

At least there's some cold air in back of it.

 

[hlcater]

I trend I won't shoot down GFS orients its snowband kind of strange though

[Geos]

Would really like it if there was more cold air in lower MI.

 

Not a lot of snow on the backside.

 

 

[Money]

Ggem gets the low down to 992 just SW of Chicago and then 989 in central MI at hr 108

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ggem gets the low down to 992 just SW of Chicago and then 989 in central MI at hr 108

 

That's more like it, more of a cutter feel with that one.  Please tell me there's more cold sector precip than the GFS.

[Money]

Hard to tell it has a max of 16 mm which is 0.6 qpf at hr 96 right around the 850 line

[gosaints]

Most of it.probably falls before that line passes similar to the.12z ggem

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hard to tell it has a max of 16 mm which is 0.6 qpf at hr 96 right around the 850 line

 

Is that 12 hour precip?

[Money]

At he 108 it has a max of 18 I. Eastern wi

[gosaints]

Is that 12 hour precip?

Yes

[bud2380]

GGEM

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2016011200/mw/cmc_snow_acc_mw_23.png

[Money]

Solid for here

[bud2380]

Solid for here

 

Where is here?

[Money]

Eastern wi just south of GB

[bud2380]

Euro pretty much completely dry with this storm now.  Nothing until it gets into the UP of Michigan. 

[Geos]

Euro pretty much completely dry with this storm now.  Nothing until it gets into the UP of Michigan. 

 

Where is the low track at?

 

I see the low that comes out of ND at 72 hours, but then there's a lot missing until 96 hours.

EURO has had a tendency to be too dry with winter systems, the last two winters. So take that into account.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX actually somewhat impressed---

THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES IN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MAY NOT BE UNTIL
SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS...GEM AND NAM CENTER
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND THE HEART OF THE 1.5 PVU ANOMALY OVER
MISSOURI. THE ECMWF IS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM ECMWF AND
TOWARDS GFS/NAM/GEM BLEND. USING THIS BLEND FOR LOCATION...AM
PICKING UP ON BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...FROM AROUND LAMONI THROUGH THE DES
MOINES METRO AND UP TOWARDS WATERLOO. METEOROLOGICALLY...THIS IS
AN EXPECTED LOCATION FOR THIS FEATURE. GFS IS PICKING UP ON A
BROAD AREA OF ASCENT IN THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...ESPECIALLY AT KOTM. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES...MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS. GIVEN FORECAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...THERE MAY BE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA FRIDAY

[Tom]

12z NAM really deepens this storm towards the end of the run and at 500mb it tries going neg tilt.  Get's it down to a 989mb SLP in S IL...I like this look but still plenty of time to see how this plays out. 

 

If that energy down in the SE can somehow get pulled into this system it would make all the difference. 

[Tony]

12z NAM really deepens this storm towards the end of the run and at 500mb it tries going neg tilt.  Get's it down to a 989mb SLP in S IL...I like this look but still plenty of time to see how this plays out. 

 

If that energy down in the SE can somehow get pulled into this system it would make all the difference. 

Nam is getting its act together with an increase in qpf. Possible that it is drawing some of that moisture from the SE but nonetheless this is a positive trend.

[Iowawx]

This looks pretty much like a non-event here, think we should have waited to start this thread. But things could change. Who knows.

[Geos]

I think with this system anyone is game between I-35 and Indianapolis.

 

GGEM

 

[Madtown]

^well that's exciting!

[Tony]

18z  Nam run showing decent cold sector moisture.

[Geos]

18z NAM is pretty much the same track. It looks to be a bit colder in the beginning compared to last Sat.

 

[Geos]

GFS a carbon copy of itself again. Looks exactly like a last Saturday event again.

 

A mess.

 

[Geos]

Something tells me the GFS will eventually change it's track. A lot of possibilities in the ensembles. Some lead to a prolonged snow event for some areas.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Very curious to see how this storm will pan out.