1/16 - 1/17 Plains/Midwest Arctic Front & Frontal Snows

[Tom]

Models have come into agreement on a wave developing along a powerful arctic front that will swing through the northern Plains and dive down through the Plains/Midwest region later this weekend.  There should be enough lift/convergence to fluff up some decent snows in E NE/IA/N MO and stretching into parts of IL.

 

12z GGEM is a bit wetter....ratios should be easily 15:1 or 20:1 or higher during this event...

[hlcater]

GFS needs to pick this system up and move it east but still give KC some snow because I feel bad for winterfreak lol.

[jcwxguy]

nam is farther east then gem/gfs  although the gfs has shifted east the last 2 runs

[hlcater]

Well, the NAM "Has the right idea"

[jcwxguy]

here is the 00z gfs and 06 gfs for comparison  

[Geos]

Definitely worth watching these waves out ahead of the really cold air. Seen some pretty decent thumps of snow before Arctic air arrives before. 

[winterfreak]

The one after this on Tuesday night looks very interesting. Paints 5+ imby.

[Grizzcoat]

All models are increasing qpf for this event in and around the DSM area. Very few media outlets are even mentioning the chance of snow Sat Pm into Sun Am. As mentioned, this will be wind whipped with temps either side of 0F. This is going to catch many people off guard (ie. the warming channel has 0% chane of snow for the period).

[hlcater]

All models are increasing qpf for this event in and around the DSM area. Very few media outlets are even mentioning the chance of snow Sat Pm into Sun Am. As mentioned, this will be wind whipped with temps either side of 0F. This is going to catch many people off guard (ie. the warming channel has 0% chane of snow for the period).

Link to warming channel website?

[gabel23]

Accu weather has 1-3" of snow for my area. The only weather media outlet that has really a chance for snow. 

[james1976]

What's Euro showing for this?

[Grizzcoat]

DMX saying 20:1 ratios likely.

 

THUS EVEN THOUGH QPF IS LESS
THEN A TENTH...SNOW RATIOS MAY EXCEED 20/1 PRODUCING AN INCH OR
TWO OF FLUFFY ACCUMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STORM
LAKE...AMES...OSKALOOSA LINE. WHAT PEOPLE WAKE UP TO SUN MORNING
MAY BE A TAD LESS HOWEVER DUE TO COMPACTION.

[bud2380]

a slight shift east would make me happy, but this is showing about .1" of qpf which would probably be 1.5-2" for my area.  Some places in Iowa I think weill get 3 or 4" out of this.  A very high ratio fluffy event looks on order.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2016011500/iowa/nam_total_precip_iowa_22.png

[Tom]

I'd be happy with 1" if it can hold together out this way!  Snow cover took a beating today as the sun nuked the fresh "fluff" from the previous Clipper.  Hope the cloud cover can come together to relax the snow melt tomorrow.

[westMJim]

I will post this in a couple of topics as it pertains to one of the tie breakers in the winter snow fall contest

 

 

OK as Grand Rapids is expected to get rain today and thus no snow fall here is the daily total snow fall as recorded at the airport.  I do not know how you plan to separate the system snows from the lake effect but here is what we received

 

1/14   t

1/13   1.9”

1/12   4.7”

1/11   2.6”

1/10   2.1”

 

Total this period    11.3” 

To help break down the lake effect from system snow I looked at Milwaukee for the same dates  and here is their totals

 

1/14    0

1/13   0.6

1/12   t

1/11    1.6

1/10     t

Total    2.2”

Giving Grand Rapids  9.1” of lake effect for this event.  Another event will start on Saturday

BTW here at my house the snow cover this AM is now down to 8"

[jcwxguy]

here is the 12z rgem

[jcwxguy]

high res canadian qpf   (got it from facebook from Jim) 

EDIT: this was from overnight run, but shows farther west then nam. Very sharp cutoff for lancaster county 

[Tom]

I could see some intense banding setting up somewhere in E NE/W IA with this type of situation.  Should be an exciting period of snowfall with temps being extremely low.

[hlcater]

Is it finished running? That's a sharp cutoff on the east side.

[NEJeremy]

Is it finished running? That's a sharp cutoff on the east side.

that was from the overnight run so yes

[jcwxguy]

it would be interesting if anyone had access to the high res canadian 12z run

[jcwxguy]

12z gfs appears farther west then last run as well, not by much, but every little bit helps

[jcwxguy]

just had the first snow shower come through here, was pretty but didnt add up to anything

 

edit:snowing again

[NEJeremy]

It seems like the models especially the GFS has reduced the amounts a bit. Might be hard to get more than an inch out of this

[jcwxguy]

hrrr has been shifting snow snow

 

remember this is a 10:1 ratio

[Iowa2015]

Hopefully we can get a couple inches out of this clipper it make it intresting on how far below zero  sunday night if we could get a decent Snow cover.

[Iowa2015]

Tuesday storm may be decent if it all plays out right with temps in the teens to lower 20

[bud2380]

This clipper keeps getting drier and drier every run. I wouldn't bet on much snow. Tuesday looks like it could bring widespread snow. Many areas getting an inch with higher areas in the south and west maybe up to 4" in Iowa. It weakens as it heads east though on lost models. The ggem is the only one that brings in decent moisture into e Iowa. If the ggem is on to something we could get 2-3" in the Iowa city area.

[Andrew NE]

I think it's going to be a close call for OMA. Recent model runs and radar sure seem to be signaling more snow south and west of the metro. There was a decent amount of dry air with the initial wave as well.

[NEJeremy]

My grid forecast has been dropped to less than one inch for tonight when it was 2-3"

[Andrew NE]

@NEJeremy, are you in Omaha?

[Tom]

LNK getting some good returns now...how's the snow flying around in town???

[Snowlover76]

Light snow in lincoln

[Guest Snowball]

Moderate snow south just south of lincoln

[jcwxguy]

Came down pretty good here for several minutes

[jcwxguy]

Solid inch to inch and a half at my brother's house near the mall in Lincoln according to him

[gabel23]

Solid 2" here in Shelby, maybe a little more. Pretty crazy how fluffy and dry this snow is.

[NEJeremy]

Heavier snow has definitely set up south of Omaha. Boo!

[NEJeremy]

@NEJeremy, are you in Omaha?

Yep

[Andrew NE]

Yea Lincoln and down to the south are doing pretty good with this little event. If it's going to be this cold it is still nice to have a some snow around so can't complain.