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January 19th-20th Light Snow Event


bud2380

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Never really understood this map

 

It is ratios. Most people think 10:1 snowfall are the rule, which is true if your talking temps between 29-32°. But if take a look at the chart below, it shows you there is many more possibilities.

 

 

The map you posted above is more accurate to what will fall.

 

Here's is a pretty cool chart showing what the snow ratio should be when snow starts to fall at these temps a loft in °C.

I'm assuming that the level would be between 700mb-850mb.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It is ratios. Most people think 10:1 snowfall are the rule, which is true if your talking temps between 29-32°. But if take a look at the chart below, it shows you there is many more possibilities.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow+to+water+ratio+chart.jpg

 

The map you posted above is more accurate to what will fall.

 

Here's is a pretty cool chart showing what the snow ratio should be when snow starts to fall at these temps a loft in °C.

I'm assuming that the level would be between 700mb-850mb.

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LJZ5ArmANJQ/TRPKWIgi5JI/AAAAAAAABbo/wWvJWqSV8xE/s1600/snowratio.png

ah ok, I was reading it as a really awful snowfall map

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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That's a very strange pattern to the snow band. It resembles waves the way the accumulation oscillate back and forth.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z GFS...looks like extreme northeast NE/IA/N MO/C IL are in for some advisory snows...

 

High end advisory at that or even a warning - depending on how certain areas handle headlines regarding snow amounts.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This system is really drying up for northeast Iowa.  Cedar Rapids is down to maybe an 1 inch on the models.  It's just not a good pattern for us.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Every run of every model is south since late yesterday.  Now, the 18z nam has removed the snow completely for eastern Iowa north of I-80.  Onward to better systems, hopefully.

 

Still should be a decent modest snow event for se NE to St. Louis.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Too cold and dry for this system to come up this way. Imagine that in a super el Niño...

 

Looks like a southern IL event back west up towards eastern NE.

 

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST

TUESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM

CST TUESDAY.

 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH BY 6

PM TUESDAY.

 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON

TUESDAY.

 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

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Sadly it's trending in the wrong direction. Maybe an inch or two. On to Feb.

 

GFS is really trying for your area!

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This map includes both waves this week. Might end up getting 7" in some areas.

Wouldn't be surprised if KC does better than 3-4".

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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