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When will Southern California get its next decent storm?

El Nino drought California
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Poll: Next decent storm (0.50" or higher for L.A. and San Diego) (14 member(s) have cast votes)

How long will it be?

  1. Before February 1 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. February 1-15 (9 votes [64.29%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 64.29%

  3. February 16-29 (3 votes [21.43%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 21.43%

  4. March 1 to June 30 (1 votes [7.14%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.14%

  5. Next winter (1 votes [7.14%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.14%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 20 January 2016 - 06:50 PM

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El Nino is not performing in Southern California for the time being. Persistent ridging to our southwest is redirecting the storm track to the north. It's not as big and strong as the infamous Really Resilient Ridge of the last few years, but it's strong enough to keep the rain away.
 
How long until Southern California gets a storm with at least 0.50 inches for L.A. and San Diego?



#2
Eujunga

Posted 20 January 2016 - 07:09 PM

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I wouldn't call 0.50 inch a "major" storm, but I have to think we'll manage that much at some point in the first half of February, as even a weakening front or one with somewhat of an inside track -- like many of the ones we've had so far this winter -- can produce half an inch if the conditions are right.

 

As for a storm of drought-buster caliber, like 2-3 inches... maybe next year, although I sincerely hope I'm wrong and we get one sooner than that.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#3
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 20 January 2016 - 08:52 PM

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I have changed the title to say decent storm. 0.50" for L.A. and San Diego would be bigger than most storms we have had so far this winter.


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#4
snow_wizard

Posted 20 January 2016 - 11:15 PM

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Looks like a strong surface high is going to set up over the NE Pacific again late in the month.  I would say maybe mid February for you you guys to have a good window again.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5
happ

Posted 21 January 2016 - 01:28 PM

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Based on past El Ninos, I think we will easily receive well over 0.50 in early February.



#6
halofromajo

Posted 21 January 2016 - 01:51 PM

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Based on past El Ninos, I think we will easily receive well over 0.50 in early February.

I was going to say the exact same thing.  Feb always seems to be the time when the fire hose get turned on.



#7
happ

Posted 27 January 2016 - 03:12 PM

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The last day of the month, Sunday, looks good for over 0.50 in LA



#8
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2016 - 11:44 AM

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I don't know if Tujunga counts as "L.A. and San Diego," but I've just officially achieved 0.50" accumulation for the day.  That makes the winner of the poll... Nobody!  No one voted for "Before February 1."  Kind of funny, since the first half of February (which had the most votes) looks like it could be completely dry.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#9
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2016 - 08:45 PM

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Downtown L.A. got only 0.43", so I guess the poll is still officially open.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#10
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 January 2016 - 08:46 PM

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I don't know if Tujunga counts as "L.A. and San Diego," but I've just officially achieved 0.50" accumulation for the day.  That makes the winner of the poll... Nobody!  No one voted for "Before February 1."  Kind of funny, since the first half of February (which had the most votes) looks like it could be completely dry.

I was thinking of a storm where both the L.A. Airport (LAX) and San Diego Airport (Lindbergh Field) would both have over 0.50", but for this storm neither of them came anywhere close.



#11
happ

Posted 09 February 2016 - 11:27 AM

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I guess the next question is when will it rain again?

 

1[ Next week? 

2] Next month?



#12
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 09 February 2016 - 11:54 PM

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I guess the next question is when will it rain again?

 

1[ Next week? 

2] Next month?

 

My guess is that it will either be next week or the week after.



#13
happ

Posted 11 February 2016 - 12:53 PM

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The pattern this winter is not what we would expect.  Very frustrating that my rain total thus far is well under 10' just like previous 3-4 winters.  And that it would be a lot less except for the tropical moisture in July & September [over 2 1/2 inches].  Winter is half over.   



#14
Eujunga

Posted 11 February 2016 - 06:32 PM

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The pattern this winter is not what we would expect.  Very frustrating that my rain total thus far is well under 10' just like previous 3-4 winters.  And that it would be a lot less except for the tropical moisture in July & September [over 2 1/2 inches].  Winter is half over.   

 

Time to stick a fork in it?

 

I know the models still advertise a greater-than-normal chance of a wet March and April, but that's what they said about February too, and look how that's turning out.

 

I think there's some argument for going with persistence, ignoring El Niño analog years, and assuming that the rest of this winter will continue to play out like it has performed thus far.  And the winter before that.  And the winter before that.

 

At this point, I don't have much faith in either the rain forecast for next week, or in the longer-term forecast for a wet March/April.  Although, as I've said before, I hope I'm wrong.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#15
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 11 February 2016 - 07:00 PM

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The pattern this winter is not what we would expect.  Very frustrating that my rain total thus far is well under 10' just like previous 3-4 winters.  And that it would be a lot less except for the tropical moisture in July & September [over 2 1/2 inches].  Winter is half over.   

 

I agree. This February so far has been the exact opposite of what I expected to happen this month. It really feels to me that this is a non El Nino year.

 

I am really beginning to think there is something else that is influencing our weather patterns in recent years that didn't exist as late as the late 1990's. Many of these winter and early spring months (January - April) over the last 4-5 years have been so remarkably similar as if they are clones of each other, which is leading me to believe that there is some forcing mechanism that is recreating this high amplitude western ridge / eastern trough pattern that seems to be appearing like clockwork beginning in either January or February.



#16
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2016 - 01:23 PM

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The thing that's killing you guys is the even the periods with Western troughing have featured NW flow with strong surface high pressure off the coast which is simply not productive for your area.  Then of course the during the Western ridges the base of the ridges have been too far south to allow any undercutting.   ​I think a major Rex block off the West Coast is what it will take for you guys to finally win.  That is the scenario that would make pretty much everyone on this forum happy. Hopefully you can pick up something worthwhile before this winter is over, but you might have to wait until next winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#17
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 14 February 2016 - 10:44 PM

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I'm getting the feeling that the warming in the Arctic and the corresponding ice melt may be playing a major role in modifying the overall pattern over the Pacific in which the storm track is shifting northward and this large upper ridge is becoming more dominant. This could be the major influence that I hinted at in the post above.



#18
happ

Posted 15 February 2016 - 11:08 AM

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The irony; if this El Nino can not deliver than it is better to go into La Nina for a cooler drought.



#19
Front Ranger

Posted 15 February 2016 - 12:51 PM

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I think CA will see a major storm in the Feb 27-Mar 4 time frame.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#20
Eujunga

Posted 18 February 2016 - 07:49 AM

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LAX has received 0.73" from this "surprise" storm, thus satisfying its half of the terms of the poll as specified by Mr Marine Layer; however, San Diego has received only 0.05", thus leaving the poll technically still open.

 

Front Ranger, at this point, it's not looking great for 2/27-3/4, although GFS does have a couple of fronts brushing us.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#21
Front Ranger

Posted 21 February 2016 - 11:29 AM

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LAX has received 0.73" from this "surprise" storm, thus satisfying its half of the terms of the poll as specified by Mr Marine Layer; however, San Diego has received only 0.05", thus leaving the poll technically still open.

 

Front Ranger, at this point, it's not looking great for 2/27-3/4, although GFS does have a couple of fronts brushing us.

 

The Euro seems to be coming around to the idea of a storm around the first of the month.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#22
Eujunga

Posted 23 February 2016 - 08:03 PM

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The Euro seems to be coming around to the idea of a storm around the first of the month.

 

Nope.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#23
happ

Posted 27 February 2016 - 09:40 AM

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Another dry week pretty much across California but toward the end of this coming week we could see rain, especially NorCal.



#24
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 27 February 2016 - 11:55 AM

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I can't think of a more favorable set-up that would bring good rains to CA than our current +PDO and strong El Nino together, and yet it is not happening. This combo has delivered BIG TIME in the past!



#25
Front Ranger

Posted 29 February 2016 - 04:34 PM

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Nope.

 

Today's says delayed but never denied!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#26
Eujunga

Posted 29 February 2016 - 06:34 PM

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Today's says delayed but never denied!

 

Yup.

 

Cautiously optimistic for something next Sunday the 6th, but whether it stays strong enough to meet the 0.50" criteria is still questionable.

 

I've been disappointed too many times by broken promises of a "pattern shift" this winter to get too hopeful for the week following.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#27
Front Ranger

Posted 29 February 2016 - 07:21 PM

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Yup.

 

Cautiously optimistic for something next Sunday the 6th, but whether it stays strong enough to meet the 0.50" criteria is still questionable.

 

I've been disappointed too many times by broken promises of a "pattern shift" this winter to get too hopeful for the week following.

 

Seems pretty likely that parts of CA will see a significant late season storm in days 6-8. Main question is how far south it goes.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#28
Front Ranger

Posted 05 March 2016 - 08:36 PM

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I think CA will see a major storm in the Feb 27-Mar 4 time frame.

 

Missed by a day.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#29
BLI snowman

Posted 05 March 2016 - 08:56 PM

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Missed by a day.

 

Nice.

 

I'm going to go a step further and call for at least two significant storms in the March 20 through November 14 timeframe.



#30
Front Ranger

Posted 06 March 2016 - 11:17 AM

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Nice.

 

I'm going to go a step further and call for at least two significant storms in the March 20 through November 14 timeframe.

 

Nice! Calling major storms in CA within a week period is really just shooting fish in a barrel these days. ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#31
Eujunga

Posted 06 March 2016 - 04:12 PM

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I was thinking of a storm where both the L.A. Airport (LAX) and San Diego Airport (Lindbergh Field) would both have over 0.50", but for this storm neither of them came anywhere close.

 

 

Missed by a day.

 

Not quite.  0.55" at LAX last night, but only 0.15" at SAN, so the poll is officially still open.

Maybe tonight and tomorrow, but it's looking questionable.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#32
Front Ranger

Posted 06 March 2016 - 08:02 PM

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Not quite.  0.55" at LAX last night, but only 0.15" at SAN, so the poll is officially still open.

Maybe tonight and tomorrow, but it's looking questionable.

 

My statement was about a major storm for CA. That just happened.

 

I wasn't about to predict specific airport totals 2 weeks out.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#33
Eujunga

Posted 07 March 2016 - 10:35 PM

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My statement was about a major storm for CA. That just happened.

 

I wasn't about to predict specific airport totals 2 weeks out.

 

Sorry -- wires crossed.  I thought we were talking about Mr Marine Layer's original criteria for the poll this thread is about.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#34
Eujunga

Posted 07 March 2016 - 10:40 PM

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Aaaand... We have a winner!

 

LAX has received 0.87" from the storm, and a late thundershower at KSAN brings their storm total to 0.56", thus fulfilling the original criteria specified by Mr. Marine Layer for the poll.

 

Whoever was the one person who voted for "March 1 to June 30" is the official winner!


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: El Nino, drought, California