El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Unfortunately it appears the demise of El Nino has been delayed by a recent WWB.  The subsurface animation shows some warming on the last frame, which now puts us well behind the schedule of the decay of the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos.  While this is concerning we are now rapidly entering what will be a fairly hostile environment for the Nino which will hopefully undo some of the damage that has been done by the WWB.  It appears SOI values will be much higher for the next two weeks as an MJO wave enters the Maritime Continent region and enhanced OLR / suppressed convection moves over the ENSO regions.

 

At any rate I am now pretty doubtful we will have a strong La Nina next winter.  Neutral or weak Nina are probably the most likely.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The latest CFS Nino projections are not great, but seem way too warm to me.  The ECMWF Nino plumes look a lot more realistic.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The latest CFS Nino projections are not great, but seem way too warm to me.  The ECMWF Nino plumes look a lot more realistic.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

CFS has been on the Warm side of the ENSO plumes.

[snow_wizard]

CFS has been on the Warm side of the ENSO plumes.

 

It would be unprecedented to have such a strong Nino not completely collapse before next winter, but it does make me nervous.

[ShawniganLake]

^{http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/figure3.gif}

 

 

 

^{http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/figure31.gif}

 

Comparing the Mid Dec to Mid-Jan forecasts, odds have improved for a Nina by the Fall. 

[snow_wizard]

That is encouraging.  We need to avoid another big WWB though.  The only good thing that would happen if the Nino did go another year is a multi year Nina would be a lock.  I do expect the CFS will look a lot different in two weeks after the MC MJO wave does its work though.

[Jesse]

Ugh, bad news.

 

It's like the +ENSO phase that will never end. Could be another toasty summer on the way.

[James Jones]

Ugh, bad news.

 

It's like the +ENSO phase that will never end. Could be another toasty summer on the way.

A more optimistic way to look at it, is that anything separating the upcoming Nina from the '98-'01 Nina is a good thing. That was maybe the most boring stretch of weather in recorded PNW history, and the lower 48 had a couple of mega torch winters in that stretch.

[Anti Marine Layer]

We need a strong El Nino to continue for the rest of this winter and spring to increase the chances of California getting some good rain, so why would a slower decline be a bad thing?

 

La Nina usually brings dry weather to Southern California, but during the 2010-11 La Nina we got a massive Pineapple Express system in December 2010.

[snow_wizard]

A more optimistic way to look at it, is that anything separating the upcoming Nina from the '98-'01 Nina is a good thing. That was maybe the most boring stretch of weather in recorded PNW history, and the lower 48 had a couple of mega torch winters in that stretch.

 

That could have been from being at the solar max during the middle and end of it.  At least 1998-99 had the big December Arctic blast.

[snow_wizard]

We need a strong El Nino to continue for the rest of this winter and spring to increase the chances of California getting some good rain, so why would a slower decline be a bad thing?

 

La Nina usually brings dry weather to Southern California, but during the 2010-11 La Nina we got a massive Pineapple Express system in December 2010.

 

El Ninos aren't good for the PNW to have cold weather.  You can do well with La Nina if we get a big Arctic blast up here that suppresses the jet.  I'll bet we will see a winter fairly soon where you will be hoping for the rain to stop.  These things usually even out over time.

[TT-SEA]

Neutral is probably better than a strong Nina anyways. I love neutral years.

[Phil]

I'm thinking La Niña for next winter, but I'm personally rooting for either ENSO-neutral or El Niño.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking La Niña for next winter, but I'm personally rooting for either ENSO-neutral or El Niño.

 

Neutral would be fine with me.  No doubt we would have a Nina the following winter.  No matter what we usually do well following a huge Nino.  We normally have at least one top tier Arctic blast the next winter.

 

You must be rooting for us to lose our sanity if you want an El Nino.  I think we deserve something good here.

[Guest happ]

El Ninos aren't good for the PNW to have cold weather.  You can do well with La Nina if we get a big Arctic blast up here that suppresses the jet.  I'll bet we will see a winter fairly soon where you will be hoping for the rain to stop.  These things usually even out over time.

 

El Ninos are good for rain, of-course and also relatively cold winter temps in California.  It is very rare for us to hope for less rain unless it involves widespread flooding.

[Phil]

Neutral would be fine with me. No doubt we would have a Nina the following winter. No matter what we usually do well following a huge Nino. We normally have at least one top tier Arctic blast the next winter.

 

You must be rooting for us to lose our sanity if you want an El Nino. I think we deserve something good here.

Anything but La Niña would be okay with me. During winter, La Niña/-QBO favors a +EPO/-PNA/+NAM, or in other words, something along the lines of 2007-08 as the PV/strat is less receptive to protons/cosmic rays.

 

The combination of La Niña/-QBO under declining solar is the perfect recipe monster blowtorch here, particularly during the summer. Trust me, you don't want to experience a blowtorch summer, by our standards. It will make you lose your sanity..

[weatherfan2012]

If a strong La Nina did come on next year watch out for a big tornado severe weather spring season in much of the mid west Ohio vally in 2017 la ninas are loaded with large severe weather outbreaks in the spring superoutbreak 74 the 2011 outbreak the 99 tornado outbreak all were La nina spring.plus hurricane season would become a lot more active in the alantic.what happens 2017-2018 and after is largely determines what happens with the solar as we maybe desending into a major solar min then.

[Phil]

If a strong La Nina did come on next year watch out for a big tornado severe weather spring season in much of the mid west Ohio vally in 2017 la ninas are loaded with large severe weather outbreaks in the spring superoutbreak 74 the 2011 outbreak the 99 tornado outbreak all were La nina spring.plus hurricane season would become a lot more active in the alantic.what happens 2017-2018 and after is largely determines what happens with the solar as we maybe desending into a major solar min then.

We're probably in for a significant severe season this year either way, typical of a post-Niño AAM response, particularly with reduced solar forcing favoring a stronger IO component relative to the more typical post-Niño antecedent forcing.

 

The question is, do we blowtorch this summer, or do we wait until 2017? That has yet to be determined.

[weatherfan2012]

Agreed it will be interesting to see which way we go I think the bigger question is how fast does la nina come on doing the summer fall.the slower a la nina forms would be far better then one that comes on fast and strong considering the -qbo as you stated phil those an active summer severe weather wise is still a plus nothing worse then a hot and dry summer weeks on end with little thunderstorms action.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1982-83 El Nino was followed by a very hot summer in Los Angeles, as the link shows here.

 

Graphs come from https://www.climatestations.com/

 

http://www.climatestations.com/images/stories/los-angeles/LACV1983.GIF

 

Also the mid-August rain makes me wonder if it was monsoonal or a rare mid-summer Pacific storm.

 

The 2009-10 El Nino was followed by a very cool summer with very low sea surface temps and a very persistent marine layer near the coast.

 

 

Therefore it is hard to tell if hot summers follow El Ninos. It seems to be more dependent on the PDO.

 

The graph also shows the Pineapple Express system in December 2010 at which time we were in La Nina.

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian Model is going with this by December, moderate to strong Nina.  And it puts western north America in the deep freeze for December.  (we can dream cant we?)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_11.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_T2ma_namer_11.png

[snow_wizard]

Canadian Model is going with this by December, moderate to strong Nina.  And it puts western north America in the deep freeze for December.  (we can dream cant we?)

 

 

 

 

Looks mighty nice!

 

Interestingly the CPC is already going for a cold winter for the NW and NC part of the country.  The big story within that is the shape of the cold anomaly area they are forecasting has the classic look for bringing lowland snow to the NW.  Only the northern third of the country west of the Great Lakes is forecast to be below normal.  I'm surprised they are going for that specific look already.  The NW always does better for snow when the cold anoms remain in the north.

 

Historically the winter following a strong to very strong Nino is about the most likely group of years to have a top tier Arctic blast.

[ShawniganLake]

I think the NMME ensemble is a new addition to the tropical tidbits site.  Will be interesting to see next week as the different models are updated. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016010800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png

[snow_wizard]

New ECMWF Nino plumes tomorrow.  I hope it still looks good.  The CFS and the continued warm subsurface is making me nervous.  Interestingly the 2009-10 El Nino was the latest one I could find for the subsurface to go cold and still lead to a Nina and that was around April.  Still time.

[ShawniganLake]

New ECMWF Nino plumes tomorrow. I hope it still looks good. The CFS and the continued warm subsurface is making me nervous. Interestingly the 2009-10 El Nino was the latest one I could find for the subsurface to go cold and still lead to a Nina and that was around April. Still time.

The Canadian updated tonight. Still going with the idea of a moderate to strong Niña next winter.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian updated tonight. Still going with the idea of a moderate to strong Niña next winter.

 

Dark blue is quite pretty I do say.

[ShawniganLake]

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-02_for_2016-12.jpg

 

 

Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C)

 

FMA 2016 1.83

MAM 2016 1.31

AMJ 2016 0.68

MJJ 2016 0.04

JJA 2016 -0.55

JAS 2016 -1.09

ASO 2016 -1.53

SON 2016 -1.92

OND 2016 -2.23

[TT-SEA]

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-02_for_2016-12.jpg

 

 

Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C)

 

FMA 2016 1.83

MAM 2016 1.31

AMJ 2016 0.68

MJJ 2016 0.04

JJA 2016 -0.55

JAS 2016 -1.09

ASO 2016 -1.53

SON 2016 -1.92

OND 2016 -2.23

 

 

Almost all the models were showing neutral or La Nina for this winter one year ago right now.     Not sure I trust the models.  

 

But neutral is probably safe bet.

[ShawniganLake]

Almost all the models were showing neutral or La Nina for this winter one year ago right now.     Not sure I trust the models.  

 

But neutral is probably safe bet.

La Nina....I don't think so.  Neutral...Yes.  Model skill does improve significantly once we start working through spring, just following the trends for now. 

 

Why are you thinking neutral is a safe bet?

[ShawniganLake]

Here is the February and then May plumes from last year.  Clearly models had a better handle on things by May.

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/figure4.gif

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/figure4.gif

[Jesse]

Here is the February and then May plumes from last year.  Clearly models had a better handle on things by May.

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/figure4.gif

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/figure4.gif

 

Could you post the most recent version of this same kind of map?

[ShawniganLake]

Could you post the most recent version of this same kind of map?

58% probability of la Nina by SON.  Average of all models is -0.7.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/figure4.gif

[Jesse]

58% probability of la Nina by SON.  Average of all models is -0.7.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/figure4.gif

 

Inherent uncertainty aside, that is looking wayyyy better for a Nina than it was a year ago. Night and day.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking back at the 10 strongest El Ninos and where they peaked in the tri-monthlies and then the following winters and where they bottomed out in the tri-monthlies we have;

 

1877-78  +2.67             78-79   -0.78 (neutral)

 

1997-98   +2.44            98-99   -1.39 (La Nina)

 

1982-83   +2.27            83-84   -0.76 (La Nina)

 

1902-03   +2.00            03-03   -0.80 (La Nina)

 

1972-73   +1.96            73-74   -1.79 (La Nina)

 

1888-89   +1.89            89-90   -1.87 (La Nina)

 

1896-97   +1.84            97-98   -0.72 (Neutral)

 

1930-31   +1.71            31-32   -0.22 (Neutral)

 

1965-66   +1.71            66-67   -0.47 (Neutral)

 

1957-58   +1.71            58-59   +0.43 (neutral)

 

5 La Nina and 5 Neutral.  With an average of (-0.84)

[TT-SEA]

Looking back at the 10 strongest El Ninos and where they peaked in the tri-monthlies and then the following winters and where they bottomed out in the tri-monthlies we have;

 

1877-78  +2.67             78-79   -0.78 (neutral)

 

1997-98   +2.44            98-99   -1.39 (La Nina)

 

1982-83   +2.27            83-84   -0.76 (La Nina)

 

1902-03   +2.00            03-03   -0.80 (La Nina)

 

1972-73   +1.96            73-74   -1.79 (La Nina)

 

1888-89   +1.89            89-90   -1.87 (La Nina)

 

1896-97   +1.84            97-98   -0.72 (Neutral)

 

1930-31   +1.71            31-32   -0.22 (Neutral)

 

1965-66   +1.71            66-67   -0.47 (Neutral)

 

1957-58   +1.71            58-59   +0.43 (neutral)

 

5 La Nina and 5 Neutral.  With an average of (-0.84)

 

 

This is why at least neutral is a safe bet.

 

One year ago... Phil was still thinking weak Nina for this current winter.   I looked back at the archive forecasts from the Australians an they were saying the same thing.   Something big changed the forecasts last spring.

[weatherfan2012]

I clearly remember you saying last spring that this winter would be a clear El nino.phil said nothing about la nina in his predtions.

[Phil]

"On the Relationship Between the QBO and Tropical Deep Convection"

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3C2552:OTRBTQ%3E2.0.CO;2

 

The height and amount of tropical deep convection are examined for a correlation with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A new 23-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and a corrected 17-yr record of the highly reflective cloud (HRC) index are used as measures of convection. When binned by phase of the QBO, zonal means and maps of OLR and HRC carry a QBO signal. The spatial patterns of the maps highlight the QBO signal of OLR and HRC in typically convective regions. Spectral analysis of zonal mean OLR and HRC near the equator reveals significant peaks at QBO frequencies. Rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis is used to determine if ENSO variations of convection are aliased into the observed QBO signals. Some analyses are repeated using the OLR record after ENSO REOF modes have been removed, yielding very similar results compared to the original analyses. It appears that the QBO signal is distinct from the ENSO signal, although the relative brevity of the OLR and HRC records with respect to the ENSO cycle makes assessing the impact of ENSO difficult.

[Phil]

Short term solar forcing on intraseasonal convective cycles:

 

http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/reprintsyly/A_RecentPapers/zz_published/Li_MLS_2009/Zjunk/27d_PNAS_mcl.pdf

[Phil]

On the statistical manifestation of the ENSO/Solar relationship:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL034831/full

[TT-SEA]

I tried to answer your question here. No response?

 

What caused the QBO to go off the rails last spring?   

 

Can we predict when it will happen again?