El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thank goodness. Cannot wait for this Nino to die.

 

This Nino isn't even benefiting Socal like a strong event has done so in the past. This year feels just like the last 4 years with this endless ridging right smack dab in the middle of our rainy season. I know Socal has an arid climate compared to the PNW, but this dryness of the last few years really sucks!

[ShawniganLake]

Mid-February update happened today.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/figure3.gif

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/figure4.gif

[stuffradio]

Mid-February update happened today.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/figure3.gif

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/figure4.gif

Huge El Nino drop off in MJJ.

[westiztehbest]

Just saw this posted by Michael Ventrice on twitter:

 

[Phil]

Just saw this posted by Michael Ventrice on twitter:

 

That looks a lot like my basic idea for 2016-17. Should be a winter dominated by a -PNA/+EPO, similar to 2007-08/1998-99. I suspect a possible wild card will be the stratosphere/NAM in January. Obviously way too early to determine how that will play out, so it'll be important to watch the BDC/O^3 data this summer, and solar forcing from July-November.

[stuffradio]

That looks a lot like my basic idea for 2016-17. Should be a winter dominated by a -PNA/+EPO, similar to 2007-08/1998-99. I suspect a possible wild card will be the stratosphere/NAM in January. Obviously way too early to determine how that will play out, so it'll be important to watch the BDC/O^3 data this summer, and solar forcing from July-November.

Let's start predicting the odds for 6-12" of snow this December in the lowlands!

[snow_wizard]

That looks a lot like my basic idea for 2016-17. Should be a winter dominated by a -PNA/+EPO, similar to 2007-08/1998-99. I suspect a possible wild card will be the stratosphere/NAM in January. Obviously way too early to determine how that will play out, so it'll be important to watch the BDC/O^3 data this summer, and solar forcing from July-November.

 

The interesting thing is even a tiny bit more amplification than we had in 2007-08 would result in huge differences for the western lowlands.  Arctic air actually made it to the extreme North Interior of Western WA that winter and gave them way more snow than places 50 miles south.  Then of course we did have the big Arctic blast in December 1998.  You could well be right about next winter being a bit more progressive than I would like though.

 

What is BDC again?

[Phil]

The interesting thing is even a tiny bit more amplification than we had in 2007-08 would result in huge differences for the western lowlands. Arctic air actually made it to the extreme North Interior of Western WA that winter and gave them way more snow than places 50 miles south. Then of course we did have the big Arctic blast in December 1998. You could well be right about next winter being a bit more progressive than I would like though.

 

What is BDC again?

The Brewer-Dobson Circulation. It's an high level global circulation that pumps O^3 & N2^O from the equatorial stratosphere poleward, into the polar stratosphere. This affects the nature of the thermal winds, hence the rate at which the PV can strengthen during the autumn and winter, ease of meridional mass/momentum transport via wave propagation, and the potential for SSW/PV breakdowns.

[snow_wizard]

The Brewer-Dobson Circulation. It's an high level global circulation that pumps O^3 & N2^O from the equatorial stratosphere poleward, into the polar stratosphere. This affects the nature of the thermal winds, hence the rate at which the PV can strengthen during the autumn and winter, ease of meridional mass/momentum transport via wave propagation, and the potential for SSW/PV breakdowns.

 

So the BDC and ozone levels during the summer can help determine how amplified the wave train will be during the winter?

[Phil]

So the BDC and ozone levels during the summer can help determine how amplified the wave train will be during the winter?

The O^3 propagates poleward very slowly (the BDC is a slow circulation), so the degree of O^3 forcing for the boreal priming season (October-December) can be determined by mid/late summer. The BDC is a very slow, fragile entity easily influenced by changes in upper atmospheric chemistry, various geomagnetic and solar radiation fluxes, the QBO, ENSO, and a few other factors. This is all low frequency, seasonal and/or multiseasonal scale stuff we're discussing here.

[Black Hole]

We've been due for a long time so I certainly hope things turn around. This winter will go down as yet another below normal snow season for a lot of the western lowlands. 

[snow_wizard]

The latest subsurface anomaly charts continue to look fantastic.  The 180 to 100W anomalies dropped from +1.4 to +0.6 in the most recent 4 week period with a huge pool of cold anoms making it to 130W from 100 meters on down.

[ShawniganLake]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016030100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_5.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016030100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_10.png

[Brennan]

That still shows a +pdo with a la nina. Interesting.

[snow_wizard]

That still shows a +pdo with a la nina. Interesting.

 

That did happen during the 1980s, but I'm far from convinced it will happen this time.  All it takes to change the PDO to negative is persistent surface high pressure off the West Coast.  That is the norm once the ENSO becomes cold.

[westiztehbest]

[ShawniganLake]

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/figure1.gif

[Jesse]

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/figure1.gif

 

This looks great. I love that the likelihood of neutral outweighs the likelihood of Nino by MJJ. Then by JAS a Nina is statistically most likely.

 

Hopefully the fact that the big flip will be occurring over the summer will have some impact on our observable weather. Perhaps turning things away from the constant summer warmth of the last three years.

[snow_wizard]

The Nina may be about to make its move.  The European MJO models like the idea of a wave emerging in the Maritime Continent and then collapsing only to re-emerge in the MC again.  If so that would break the back of the Nino.  Daily SOI readings have improved dramatically over the past week and should remain higher with the projected MJO.  Hopefully the CFS will finally get on board with a Nina in the coming days.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The Nina may be about to make its move.  The European MJO models like the idea of a wave emerging in the Maritime Continent and then collapsing only to re-emerge in the MC again.  If so that would break the back of the Nino.  Daily SOI readings have improved dramatically over the past week and should remain higher with the projected MJO.  Hopefully the CFS will finally get on board with a Nina in the coming days.

 

This is one of the rare times that I am actually rooting for a Nina for next year. This has been one sorry El Nino pattern, in terms of precip for Socal. It is as if the pattern was turned upside down or something, as Seattle had record rainfall for the winter, and it has been uncharacteristically dry for a strong Nino in Socal. I am ready for something to kick this pattern, which started in 2013, in the you-know-where, because it has led to devastating drought conditions in CA.

 

I will admit that Norcal is having a much better season this year in terms of rain and snow, which is helping to put a dent in the drought, but we need several wet years in succession to totally end it.

[westiztehbest]

Warm anoms feeling the squeeze...slowing being shoved back westward from the cool anoms.

 

 

 

Warm anoms look directly on par with late 1997.  Do we have 3 years of La Ninas to follow this last year?  Guess we'll see.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is totally on board with cold ENSO by July now.

 

 

[Jesse]

The ECMWF is totally on board with cold ENSO by July now.

Very nice.

 

I can't imagine how this won't have some sort of affect on our temps this summer. At least mitigating things a bit compared to the last few.

[Front Ranger]

This is one of the rare times that I am actually rooting for a Nina for next year. This has been one sorry El Nino pattern, in terms of precip for Socal. It is as if the pattern was turned upside down or something, as Seattle had record rainfall for the winter, and it has been uncharacteristically dry for a strong Nino in Socal. I am ready for something to kick this pattern, which started in 2013, in the you-know-where, because it has led to devastating drought conditions in CA.

 

I will admit that Norcal is having a much better season this year in terms of rain and snow, which is helping to put a dent in the drought, but we need several wet years in succession to totally end it.

 

Yeah, Sacramento has already had 200% normal precip for March and is about 120% of normal since Jan 1.

 

March has made a huge difference for this season overall. Too many people were writing things off after a slow February.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yeah, Sacramento has already had 200% normal precip for March and is about 120% of normal since Jan 1.

 

March has made a huge difference for this season overall. Too many people were writing things off after a slow February.

 

The heavy precipitation in March has helped out quite a bit because the moisture fell where it was needed most: snow in the mountains and water in the major reservoirs. I just wish the storm track would shift south and bring Socal more significant rainfall for a change, while still benefiting Norcal. The winters here in Socal have been rather boring and dry in recent years, but at least the drought has been dented.

[westiztehbest]

LOL @ CFS

 

[ShawniganLake]

March update came in today.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/figure4.gif

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/figure3.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS still hanging onto the idea of a Nino. 

[TT-SEA]

CFS still hanging onto the idea of a Nino. 

 

 

Hopefully that means there is hope for neutral.    I love neutral years.  Strong Nino and Nina usually just overwhelm us with the jet stream.

[snow_wizard]

The subsurface has gone negative now.  I have no idea why the CFS is taking so long to catch onto this.

 

[westiztehbest]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/21/how-much-global-cooling-will-we-see-on-transition-to-la-nina/

 

This article suggests that the faster we see negative 3.4 anoms (before June)...the stronger the Nina.

 

[Black Hole]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/21/how-much-global-cooling-will-we-see-on-transition-to-la-nina/

 

This article suggests that the faster we see negative 3.4 anoms (before June)...the stronger the Nina.

 

Generally speaking, it makes sense that the sooner you go negative the better. There is a lot of cool subsurface water across the Pacific and I think that when it surfaces temperatures will drop quite rapidly. 

[snow_wizard]

Generally speaking, it makes sense that the sooner you go negative the better. There is a lot of cool subsurface water across the Pacific and I think that when it surfaces temperatures will drop quite rapidly. 

 

I actually wonder if the best thing for the NW would be a weak Nina for 2016-17 and moderate to strong for 2017-18.  I'm rather leary of strong Ninas after 1998 - 2000 and 2007-08.  By 2017-18 we will be in an extremely deep solar min which should favor a slower jet and more amplification.

[Front Ranger]

I actually wonder if the best thing for the NW would be a weak Nina for 2016-17 and moderate to strong for 2017-18.  I'm rather leary of strong Ninas after 1998 - 2000 and 2007-08.  By 2017-18 we will be in an extremely deep solar min which should favor a slower jet and more amplification.

 

2010-11 was about the same -ENSO (at least from ONI perspective) as 2007-08, though, and that was a pretty good winter. 

[Phil]

2010-11 was about the same -ENSO (at least from ONI perspective) as 2007-08, though, and that was a pretty good winter.

Correct, but 2010-11 was a Niña/+QBO, which is usually preferable to Niña/-QBO (2007-08) if you want amplified blocking over the NPAC.

 

Recent Niña/+QBO winters (properly timed shear progression for boreal winter) include 2008-09 and 2010-11. On the other had recent Niña/-QBO winters meeting the same criteria include 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2011-12. As of now, it appears that the winter of 2016-17 will fit into the either the latter (Niña/-QBO) or perhaps into the more transitory years if the downwelling easterly wave slows/amplifies somewhat.

[ShawniganLake]

CFS starting to trend cooler?  Many more members dropping below the 0C line.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

[Jesse]

CFS starting to trend cooler? Many more members dropping below the 0C line.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

Playing catch up.

[snow_wizard]

It's close to being show time for the Nina.  The layer of warm water is now less than 50 meters thick and the subsurface is impressively cold.  It's better than I thought it would be this early in the year.

[snow_wizard]

CFS upgrade for ENSO is due any day. I think that might be mentioned in detail in another thread. The upgraded forecasts take aim for a Neutral-Nina by July.

 

That is good to know.  The CFS has been embarrassing lately on ENSO.  When anyone that knows anything about ENSO can look at current data and know a model is wrong that is pretty bad.

[Phil]

Goodbye El Niño. Looks like a relative cooling of poleward SSTs, which is typical following a prolific Niño.

 

That southern ocean looks frigid.