GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Geos]

Cautiously excited about this system. 

 

Go ahead and discuss away. 7 days to go.

[Money]

Jinx

[bud2380]

Glad to see a thread started.  The latest GFS would be a dream come true for a number of people.  Where I am located I'd be right on the southern fringe and just outside of the ridiculous totals.  Obviously these numbers are way overblown, but still cool to look at.

 

http://i.imgur.com/8rJx4Vh.png

[bud2380]

EPS Control  a little south of that and more realistic on snow totals.  It also doesn't show the prolonged overrunning event like the GFS has.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/XIN9YMI.png

[bud2380]

And GFS Ensembles

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2016012518/mw/gefs_snow_ens_mw_41.png

[bud2380]

Here's the worlds  greatest model... The DGEX!  Note it only goes to hour 192 or these totals would be way higher.  Also please note this is a terrible model.

 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[Geos]

Jinx

 

The NWS offices even started talking about it today, and it is very unusual for them to say anything barely 7 days out.

 

It always seems to snow right before or on my b-day (5th), so I'm feeling pretty good about this one. I think I've only had 2 green birthday's that I can remember.

 

 

Omg, the DGEX is going to go nuts when the time comes. 

[jcwxguy]

And GFS Ensembles

 

 

6,8, 11, 15, 17 are good here

[winterfreak]

This feels like the one that delivers for everyone except maybe OKwx. Let's hope so.

[Tom]

Glad a storm thread was started...there's no question about a storm system forming.  Like Winterfreak said, this will most likely be the best storm of the season we have all tracked that can seriously spread the wealth.

 

Today's Euro run was good, but it zipped on by and did not interact with the jet until much later in the game.  The most plausible scenario is an initial widespread over-running event that develops out ahead of the main event.  I think by Thu we will get a good idea on what to be expecting from this storm.  The amount of consistency of a storm threat by the GFS/Euro in the 10 day range gives me a good feeling that we wont be seeing dramatic shifts.  Something similar to how we saw the models behave on the last EC Blizzard.  There wasn't much disagreement in track, qpf, etc.

[Tom]

Cautiously excited about this system. 

 

Go ahead and discuss away. 7 days to go.

I like the title...sounds like a thriller to an action movie...LOL

[OKwx2k4]

This feels like the one that delivers for everyone except maybe OKwx. Let's hope so.

Lol. It's ok. I don't believe in snow anymore.

[Geos]

Was just looking at convection associated with el Niño, and it seems like most of it is pretty far west now. The reason to look at this is that the convection speeds the southern branch of the jet stream that enters the southwest US and Mexico. If want a storm to develop properly we want that convection to stay west.

 

[james1976]

Lol. It's ok. I don't believe in snow anymore.

You do live in OK........move north if you wanna get in on more winter weather action!

[jcwxguy]

anyone have the euro high res ?

[Snowlover76]

I just want 8+  thats all.  Even 6" will make me happy 

[jcwxguy]

00z gfs is slower and stronger out west then 18z at hour 144

[bud2380]

GFS with some pretty substantial differences thru 144 hours vs the 18z run. Not terribly surprising considering how far out we are talking here, but keeps it fun with all the posibilities yet.

[bud2380]

850 zero degree boundary quite a bit further south this run. 

[Geos]

00z gfs is slower and stronger out west then 18z at hour 144

 

Was just about to say.

 

Low a little slower coming through the Great Basin on Sunday night.

[bud2380]

surface low a bit further north at 168 hours.

[jcwxguy]

north at hour 171

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160126/00Z/f174/sfcconus.png

[bud2380]

looks like it's going to cut right through Iowa. It also looks like it's starting to occlude before it even gets to Iowa.

[Geos]

High is pressing down from the north. 

 

Comes out a little north of the NM border.

 

[bud2380]

this run is a great hit for most of Nebraska, but especially E NE and W IA.

[Geos]

Almost an identical track once it gets to MO.

 

[Tom]

00z GFS showing some convective bands at HR 189...

 

Thru HR 201...

[Tom]

GFS doesn't dig this storm as deep into 4 corners as the EURO...big difference...let's see what the Euro does tonight.

[bud2380]

Looks like LaCrosse is the bullseye this run.

[hlcater]

Well, all I can say is we got a big storm on our hands.

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/IR1Z49l.png

[Geos]

GFS doesn't dig this storm as deep into 4 corners as the EURO...big difference...let's see what the Euro does tonight.

 

Yep - needs to dig a little bit more. And the high needs to press down on it more.

 

System is progressive this run, doesn't get hung up.

[Tom]

Widespread 10-20" snowfall amounts from NE to WI...pretty large storm system

[bud2380]

Canadian way further south.

 

http://i.imgur.com/E4Bq32M.gif

[jcwxguy]

awfully sharp cutoff in southeast nebraska 

[bud2380]

Canadian has kind've been out to lunch with this storm though.  Hard to give it too much credence. It's basically shown either a small storm, no storm, or closer to the Gulf Coast thus far.

[james1976]

Id take that GFS run in a heartbeat. Its gonna be big differences from run to run for a few days yet. Keep that in mind.

[Tom]

Canadian has kind've been out to lunch with this storm though.  Hard to give it too much credence. It's basically shown either a small storm, no storm, or closer to the Gulf Coast thus far.

When I compared the 12z GGEM to the 12z Euro, both models had the same placement with the HP in Canada.  The GGEM had problems handling the energy coming out of the southwest.  Let's see the full run of the GGEM tonight.

[bud2380]

GEM coming in line with the Euro, but further south and not quite as strong.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/xhEkjyH.gif