winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 That was deflating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 00z GFS...full run...lot's of lolipops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Lol, showing sleet accumulation again here. Still 160+ hours out. 120 hours these models should start agreeing on a solution. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/WIObtfu.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 the snow just lingers on the GEM for hours in MO & IL. Very long duration event on this run. http://i.imgur.com/Z9Ngy1y.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Run after run after run gfs is showing 12+ snowfall for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 euro high res and control from 12z were more in line with gfs being farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 the snow just lingers on the GEM for hours in MO & IL. Very long duration event on this run. http://i.imgur.com/Z9Ngy1y.gifSlowly getting there...starting to catch on to the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'll take the GEM. Most likely out to lunch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'll take the GEM. Most likely out to lunch though.I'd wait till the Euro loads before making that call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Run after run after run gfs is showing 12+ snowfall for someoneThis storm has a high probability of laying down a large glacier. Pattern is ripe for it and the energy coming off the Pacific is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 What an over performer today though Went from an inch or two and now have about 5 and still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'd wait till the Euro loads before making that call...EURO burned us last storm....I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one. Will be interesting to see if Jim Flowers starts falling in love with the GFS with it's snowfall forecasts lately!! I'm just hoping for a beast that can share the wealth to everyone...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 This thing is still 180+ hours out yet feels like we've been tracking it for weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 This thing is still 180+ hours out yet feels like we've been tracking it for weeksI know, it's incredible how consistent this thing has been showing up on the models. Didn't the groundhog blizzard in Chicago have the same thing happen?? We all know how that thing turned out, I would like to see something like that roll through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 EURO burned us last storm....I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one. Will be interesting to see if Jim Flowers starts falling in love with the GFS with it's snowfall forecasts lately!! I'm just hoping for a beast that can share the wealth to everyone......Yup! Wonder what his reaction is going to be if the Euro keeps the southerly track. Although, you can't discount this storm digging into 4 corners like it did back in December and wayy back in Oct 19th-22nd when a cut-off low sat there and spun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I think the ghd blizzard was showing an east coast storm at first if I remember right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I know, it's incredible how consistent this thing has been showing up on the models. Didn't the groundhog blizzard in Chicago have the same thing happen?? We all know how that thing turned out, I would like to see something like that roll through our area. In 2011...the Euro had it 7+ days out...man, that was exhilarating! In 2015, the GFS had it 6-10 days out then completely lost the storm Day 5-6, then all of a sudden brought it back. It was because that energy was coming out of the Eastern Pacific where there isn't much data available. That was an interesting storm to track. Kept getting juicier each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I think there was one run where euro went towards the other models and then quickly brought it back That was actually when euro was pretty much automatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 00z GGEM...I like how it digs into 4 corners and then starts going neg tilt at HR 174... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I see the problem with the GGEM..at HR180 it splits into 2 separate pieces riding along the baraclinic zone. One piece in NE OK and the other near the KY/IN border. Throws off the run after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Euro is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/00Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Looks like more cold air out ahead of the system. Going to be big I think. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 00z Euro going to be a nice run for NE...precip out ahead of developing SLP in the 4 corners...-20C temps showing up near WY/N DK/Canadian border at HR168. Looks like a big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/00Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 So it's going to be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Going to be farther NW than 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 It's south of the GFS and north of the GGEM. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/00Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Big hit for Lincoln, 8"+ snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cuts up right over KC/W IL/S WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cuts up right over KC/W IL/S WI...Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cuts up right over KC/W IL/S WI... The map shows it cuts into MI... Need the low to hang back a little and dig. Eject it out near Amarillo - would be perfect for almost everyone. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Here are some numbers from teh 0z Euro. I will post others in a few mins. DSM:MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.4 -2.9 1009 73 90 0.00 548 541 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.8 -2.7 1008 89 100 0.09 547 541 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 -2.0 1006 96 88 0.23 546 541 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.2 -4.0 1001 96 82 0.40 536 536 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -2.2 -7.1 1003 90 74 0.18 532 530 WED 00Z 03-FEB -8.7 -7.7 1014 74 91 0.02 533 522 WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.4 -9.4 1023 67 35 0.00 535 518 OMA:MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.1 -3.5 1009 67 85 0.00 546 540 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.0 -3.6 1007 90 100 0.08 545 539 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.1 -4.4 1005 92 100 0.31 542 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -3.4 -6.7 1006 90 97 0.51 534 529 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -8.3 -7.6 1013 81 98 0.23 533 523 WED 00Z 03-FEB -9.4 -8.4 1021 67 51 0.02 536 520 WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.5 -10.0 1026 70 56 0.00 537 517 MCI:MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.5 2.1 1006 84 49 0.00 552 547 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 4.1 3.0 1003 91 61 0.02 549 546 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 3.4 7.2 998 98 71 0.10 545 547 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 4.1 2.3 997 84 39 0.01 537 539 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.6 -6.3 1005 82 93 0.04 536 531 WED 00Z 03-FEB -5.3 -9.0 1019 59 95 0.02 537 522 WED 06Z 03-FEB -7.4 -8.4 1026 52 55 0.00 541 520 ORD:MON 18Z 01-FEB 2.4 -0.9 1011 89 97 0.01 549 541 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 0.4 -0.6 1012 96 76 0.00 552 543 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.5 1.4 1010 96 99 0.06 551 544 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 1.5 6.5 1006 97 70 0.15 552 548 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 6.1 6.3 997 97 51 0.43 549 551 WED 00Z 03-FEB 6.0 2.2 995 82 38 0.01 540 544 WED 06Z 03-FEB -0.3 -9.1 1003 81 94 0.00 530 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The whole state of NE looks solid and most of IA...N/W WI also seems like a good hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 OMA/LNK look golden on the Euro...a lot of the snow in WI is from the current storm and a clipper on Fri/Sat.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not a good night of model runs from here to Chicago. What worries me is the GFS has consistently shown it NW. The majority of the EURO ensembles did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Here four more cities that I remember people asking for LNK:MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.1 -2.8 1010 94 97 0.03 547 539 MON 18Z 01-FEB 3.6 -3.2 1008 74 89 0.01 547 540 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.3 -3.7 1006 96 100 0.15 545 539 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -0.5 -5.1 1004 94 100 0.35 540 537 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -4.6 -7.6 1007 89 98 0.46 534 528 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -8.3 -8.5 1016 76 97 0.16 535 522 WED 00Z 03-FEB -9.2 -7.9 1022 70 59 0.01 537 520 WED 06Z 03-FEB -15.5 -9.6 1027 72 65 0.00 538 517 CID:MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.2 -2.4 1010 81 95 0.01 548 540 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.1 -2.1 1010 92 93 0.10 549 541 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.5 -0.3 1008 93 94 0.20 548 541 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.9 4.1 1000 95 63 0.25 544 544 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 2.1 -0.9 998 96 47 0.13 535 536 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.5 -8.1 1005 84 89 0.02 531 527 WED 06Z 03-FEB -12.2 -9.3 1017 62 15 0.00 533 520 MSN:TUE 00Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.2 1013 88 96 0.00 548 538 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -0.6 -3.3 1012 91 98 0.09 547 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.0 -1.0 1006 93 79 0.16 547 543 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 1.2 2.7 999 95 20 0.19 541 542 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.2 -4.4 998 93 53 0.04 531 532 WED 06Z 03-FEB -7.0 -9.5 1007 78 56 0.01 528 523 WED 12Z 03-FEB -16.3 -12.8 1019 71 36 0.00 529 515 OSH:MON 18Z 01-FEB 0.8 -4.7 1012 89 92 0.00 545 535 TUE 00Z 02-FEB -0.6 -4.0 1013 91 89 0.00 547 536 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -1.3 -4.7 1014 91 99 0.01 547 536 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -0.6 -3.5 1010 93 97 0.08 547 539 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 3.6 999 92 71 0.17 542 543 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.4 -3.3 997 95 45 0.16 531 534 WED 06Z 03-FEB -3.4 -9.6 1002 81 70 0.01 526 524 WED 12Z 03-FEB -15.8 -14.2 1016 71 24 0.00 526 514 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not a good night of model runs from here to Chicago. What worries me is the GFS has consistently shown it NW. The majority of the EURO ensembles did too. There's a lot of moving parts this far out. I'm sure tomorrow something slightly different will show up.Well don't look at the JMA from earlier! That's a solution have of us would hate to see. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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