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GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

So its the GFS/EURO vs GGEM at this stage of the game...I'm noticing on the Euro the HP is getting stronger and colder each run forcing more interaction earlier on as the storm develops on the lee side of the Rockies.  If the HP is to continue getting stronger, I'd suspect it to force south in future runs.  The model is seeing more energy bundling together by 00z Feb 2nd comparing it to previous runs which is a better sign for a wound up storm.

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Jaycee
Jaycee

Here I sit, broken hearted,   The models looked good, til the SE trend started,   I watched closely, every day,   As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,   As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

Tom
Tom

GGEM caving in towards the GFS/EURO now...odds are stacking up against us in Chitown...I'm finally happy Nebraskan's will enjoy a powerful storm.  Now I'll get to see what it feels like to be on the s

Tom
Tom

18z NAM showing 6-10" of snow in a 3 hour period right near DSM and points west!  2-3"/hr snowfall rates around 6:00am Tuesday morning and with gusts of 40-50mph!

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ToastedRavs Contributor

ToastedRavs

Posted
Posted

As previously mentioned by someone, weather forecast offices starting to pay attention.  Glad this separate thread was started.  Let's spread the wealth with this storm.  From DMX discussion:

 

. DECENT MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY. MODEL QPF IS SUGGESTING A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. IF ALL OF IT FALLS AS SNOW
AND IF ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO INCREASE SNOW RATIOS THIS COULD
BE A RATHER INTERESTING SYSTEM AND SNOWFALL EVENT. THIS IS ALL
SPECULATION AT THIS POINT SINCE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND MANY DETAILS. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING
THOUGH.
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mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

Posted
Posted

On his blog this morning, Gary Lezak is expecting the storm to be further south than what the models are showing which would fit better with the LRC according to him. A southward shift would be good for me, but I guess we'll see...

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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jcwxguy Mentor

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted

oax

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...

A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.

MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
 
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jcwxguy Mentor

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted

gid

 

 

 

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET A BIT MORE TRICKY AS
ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STEER A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE A PRECURSOR TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE IT IS STILL FAR TO EARLY TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT AT
LEAST A PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...LATEST PLUMES INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS TAKING THIS STORM FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING ONLY LIGHT
SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS EXPLODE THE
SYSTEM OVER THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERATING OVER AN
INCH OF OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A SYSTEM IMPACTING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY...DECIDED TO TONE DOWN LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GIVEN IN BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.
THAT SAID...THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH...AS IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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FarmerRick Apprentice

FarmerRick

Posted
Posted

Can we please just lock this in now?  Nebraska is in desperate need of a widespread spread the wealth type snowstorm.  Been years since we've had one..

 

 

Just wish most of the snow we have on the ground now wasn't going to melt in the next few days, we have a really nice base now.

Highs forecast to be above freezing from tomorrow until this storm hits.   :(

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00Z EPS/Control...last night's 00z EPS seems to dig the storm farther south into TX/E OK before turning the corner.  A little different trend, which doesn't necessarily change things for the Plains, but more out this way.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

a bit of spread on the euro, but thats expected. Ensemble mean is less then i would expect

Indeed, most members seem to have a good handle on the location near the TX Panhandle region...then it gets a little bit more uncertain.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Posted

I remember tracking the Jan 9th/10th system and the models were having trouble trying to figure out what to do with the gulf energy and the storm ended up having 2 separate pieces that never actually phased until much later near the OV.  I don't expect that to happen this time.  However, having said that, I want to see if the Euro focuses more on the southern energy it is leaving behind near the Gulf or if the northern piece in the southern Plains ends up pulling it farther north.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Just to go over the known bias with the models. The Euro usually does not eject all the energy out in 1 piece and has to correct itself and the GFS usually ejects it out too quick. The Gem I think is usually starts out as the northern outliner but then eventually comes into line with the others. The Nam is the Nam but I love to see it's overblown qpf on storms. The DGEX is my favorite...enough said! 

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Here is an excerpt from the WPC with regards to our storm:

 

THE CHALLENGE --- FOR DAYS 5-7 --- APPEARS TO BE 'GAGING' THE
FINAL TRAJECTORIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE --- WITH EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE ENERGY THROUGH TIME---STARTING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON/JUST AFTER DAY 3 THAT
BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 4-5 WITH A PACIFIC
SURFACE HIGH IN TOW (BEHIND IT).

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Gary is getting desperate. Not really confident myself that this gives us a major snow maker. I like the boldness.

I agree to some degree.  This is where his passion may cloud his judgement.  It can go both ways with Jim Flowers as well.  Yesterday his thoughts on the northern piece being to strong and deflecting the storm south were plausible.  Last night's Euro run had the northern piece even stronger and the storm shifted NW.  So in this mornings video, he has found "reasoning" or "excuses" as to why that run may make sense.  You know, it's the weather and it will do what it wants to do.  I like hearing both sides to the story. 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Posted

Gary's reasoning makes more sense with respect to having the storm dig farther south before ejecting NE towards the Lakes.  In both cycles, without any blocking whatsoever, the storm managed to dig deep into the 4 corners and into TX.  Now, why in the world would it take a more northerly track in early Feb???  If there is no shift in that evolution by Thursday, then I would expect a northerly track.  Until then, this energy is wayy out in the Pacific NW of Hawaii where data is scarce.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

So in your guiy's opinion where do you think this will go? NW and give I35 east and south of hwy20 the shaft or take SE and be more of a spread the wealth type of storm?

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Here is an excerpt from the WPC with regards to our storm:

 

THE CHALLENGE --- FOR DAYS 5-7 --- APPEARS TO BE 'GAGING' THE

FINAL TRAJECTORIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING THE

CONTINENTAL DIVIDE --- WITH EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF

THE ENERGY THROUGH TIME---STARTING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE

CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON/JUST AFTER DAY 3 THAT

BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 4-5 WITH A PACIFIC

SURFACE HIGH IN TOW (BEHIND IT).

That NW PAC wave is also a very key component to the overall storm track.  It won't be fully sampled till about Fri/Sat which drags the cold front across the central CONUS and ends up becoming the baroclinic zone.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Gary's reasoning makes more sense with respect to having the storm dig farther south before ejecting NE towards the Lakes.  In both cycles, without any blocking whatsoever, the storm managed to dig deep into the 4 corners and into TX.  Now, why in the world would it take a more northerly track in early Feb???  If there is no shift in that evolution by Thursday, then I would expect a northerly track.  Until then, this energy is wayy out in the Pacific NW of Hawaii where data is scarce.

Agree, the operational models will have a hard time determining the track of this system and will only be partially known by Friday and even then I believe the models will not be in any agreement. The only known at this time is this will be a powerhouse system with seveve on one side and very heavy snow on the other and possible ice mixed in some locals.

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