Tom Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 As we approach that last month of meteorological Winter, February looks to open up with a bang as a very large storm system will effect the central states. Is this a good omen for the remainder of this month??? Long range forecast models are indicating this could be a very wintry month. Let's Discuss... After the GHD Blizzard III departs, the entire hemispheric pattern is going to change after what was a late January pullback as was expected. There is a lot going on right now in the atmosphere, including the stratosphere, as well as high latitude blocking that is going to become fully engaged once we get past the 1st week of the month. February is known to produce some of the coldest/stormiest patterns. One thing I am following is the Euro's MJO index and what we know about the LRC this year. We know, the pattern has been favorable to produce an active storm track coming out of the southwest or southern Plains up towards the Lakes/OV region. The Euro is favoring a Phase 4 MJO right now and you can see that this would create a ridge in the East. Now, that is not all that bad when you consider all the other variables including a -AO/NAO/-EPO that can overwhelm the cold into the central CONUS which will allow storm systems to ride up the boundary line. Imagine nature trying to push cold up against a SE ridge??? This could be a phenomenal pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png 00z EPS 500mb pattern looks great...very different to what we saw last February which was targeting the eastern Lakes/EC. This is a great sign for an active pattern from say, the Rockies to the Lakes. Even those that live down in the deep southern Plains have a chance to score some wintry systems to form. Another reason why I think there will be a SW Flow is the SOI has been rising. It is now in positive territory which promotes ridging in the East. This fits very well with this year's LRC pattern and 30-day cycle! There are many signals indicating an active pattern in the central CONUS. Fun times ahead! Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 30 Jan 2016Average for last 30 days -22.22Average for last 90 days -11.90Daily contribution to SOI calculation 2.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 As we approach that last month of meteorological Winter, February looks to open up with a bang as a very large storm system will effect the central states. Is this a good omen for the remainder of this month??? Long range forecast models are indicating this could be a very wintry month. Let's Discuss... After the GHD Blizzard III departs, the entire hemispheric pattern is going to change after what was a late January pullback as was expected. There is a lot going on right now in the atmosphere, including the stratosphere, as well as high latitude blocking that is going to become fully engaged once we get past the 1st week of the month. February is known to produce some of the coldest/stormiest patterns. One thing I am following is the Euro's MJO index and what we know about the LRC this year. We know, the pattern has been favorable to produce an active storm track coming out of the southwest or southern Plains up towards the Lakes/OV region. The Euro is favoring a Phase 4 MJO right now and you can see that this would create a ridge in the East. Now, that is not all that bad when you consider all the other variables including a -AO/NAO/-EPO that can overwhelm the cold into the central CONUS which will allow storm systems to ride up the boundary line. Imagine nature trying to push cold up against a SE ridge??? This could be a phenomenal pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png 00z EPS 500mb pattern looks great...very different to what we saw last February which was targeting the eastern Lakes/EC. This is a great sign for an active pattern from say, the Rockies to the Lakes. Even those that live down in the deep southern Plains have a chance to score some wintry systems to form. Another reason why I think there will be a SW Flow is the SOI has been rising. It is now in positive territory which promotes ridging in the East. This fits very well with this year's LRC pattern and 30-day cycle! There are many signals indicating an active pattern in the central CONUS. Fun times ahead! Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 30 Jan 2016Average for last 30 days -22.22Average for last 90 days -11.90Daily contribution to SOI calculation 2.41 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 I just keep hearing this and nothing has panned out. Believe it when I see it mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 I just keep hearing this and nothing has panned out. Believe it when I see it mode.Southwesterly flow is our only chance. I take back everytime the last few years I griped about not getting a real snowstorm only swfe. I'd take a good swfe at least before this winter is over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think this will be our month. Even during the horrible winter of 11-12, February was rockin' with systems. The MJO struggles to stay in 4 on the GFS. Kind of back and forth. This isn't likely going to be the main driver in February, but will be the other teleconnections Tom mentioned. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 First ten days of the month look rather cold and dry. Something showing up week two hahaha can't believe I'm even saying this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Here we are at the last 1/3rd of met Winter and much is going on in the world of weather. Both 30mb/10mb warming is blossoming towards the arctic regions. The Euro is suggesting the warmest temps ever over the North Pole at +7C! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif 10mb temps have surged... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif The Euro is suggesting the MJO rolling into the warm phases...SSW is as strong as we have seen, it might even set records. The models are going to have a devil of a time trying to figure this one out. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I can't wait for spring to get here. Ive given up on winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 GFS once again backing off on the cold in the med/long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moozarksTim Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I have waited all winter 2015-2016 for winter to get here but it looks like we will go from fall to spring this time around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 GFS looks bleak in the late long range. Temps look like they'll moderate after this upcoming 7-10 day cool down. By that point climo really starts to against us. Time is running out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS once again backing off on the cold in the med/long range.GFS backs off while Euro hammers away...hope we somehow get the snow before the cold hits... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Full blown SSW event taking place now. GFS has brought the cold air back in a huge way. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just screams suppression to me with temps that cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks transient though. Pattern gets a little better after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 There should be a good supply of clippers roll through. Probably wont help KC but should help the Lakes area. Just screams suppression to me with temps that cold. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that. The likely next system to watch. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that. The likely next system to watch.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png I just need 2'' at a time to pay the bills. Bring on the clipper train! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that. The likely next system to watch.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pngEnsembles are showing some interesting members around the Lakes...with another clipper on its heels a couple days later. I'd like to score a few inches from anyone of these as the cold air settles in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 CPC keeps above normal precip chances near the Lakes over the next 2 weeks... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ensembles are showing some interesting members around the Lakes...with another clipper on its heels a couple days later. I'd like to score a few inches from anyone of these as the cold air settles in. If something like that does happen it will powdery snow probably. Maybe like a 2-4" system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Really dense fog has formed here. ~100 ft visibility. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 If something like that does happen it will powdery snow probably. Maybe like a 2-4" system.Right now, I'd gladly take 2-4". Heck, 1-2" sounds wonderful! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Monday night into Tuesday looks like a good shot at 2-4. Hopefully it works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Monday night into Tuesday looks like a good shot at 2-4. Hopefully it works out.Euro also showing this system...depending on where it tracks, it could bring a period of Lehs for NE IL/SE WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro also showing this system...depending on where it tracks, it could bring a period of Lehs for NE IL/SE WI. 6Z GFS cuts the low off and parks it over Lake Michigan. Drops 6-8 over 2 days. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 6Z GFS cuts the low off and parks it over Lake Michigan. Drops 6-8 over 2 days.Some of the Euro Ensembles look pretty interesting near the Lakes early next week. EPS mean has a good agreement. This is a rather peculiar system as the pattern becomes highly amplified. Prob won't know till later this weekend how this one tracks. Would be nice to score a few inches from this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 6z had 8-9 across most of WI with this system next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 That would be nice. Its not that far away time wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 These clippers will continue to be less and less impressive with each model run. Might as well stick a fork in it as the long range continues to stink and don't see any changes except for some cold thrown in here and there. Boring pattern to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z GGEM is pretty decent... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 The low sits and spins on the eastern side of LM for 36-48 hrs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 ^ Nice to look at but I have my doubts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 i expect it to start to get more active starting around the 19th or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Monday-Tuesday definitely looks interesting. If the low sits in Michigan like 06z GFS and 12z GEM, Milwaukee could get some decent lake enhancement. Best part is, its 4ish days away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 The low sits and spins on the eastern side of LM for 36-48 hrs That would be awesome. It showing lake enhanced snow. Love the type of systems that cause snow for 24 hours or more. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro has a 994 L over northern Minnesota at 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro stil has a low along western mi at hr 144 as well How does it look tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 EURO showing the same low entering the Great Lakes in similar fashion to the GEM at 120 hours. That looks perfect for LEhS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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