Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II

[FarmerRick]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160201/12Z/f060/acckucherasnowc.png

 

 

 

Hmmm...  more dry air for Omaha.   

[Snowlover76]

Final call for Lincoln:

 

 

2-5" 

[Grizzcoat]

Okay -- I'am 20 miles WNW of DSM. OF course it's close,, I was going to throw in the towel until I brought up the raw #'s for for my location. It has cooled since 06Z GFS run and added more QPf.  Asking for advice--- throw the towel in or not?

 

12Z GFS

TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.8    -5.0    1007      88     100    0.15     547     542    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.1    -0.6     999      98      40    0.83     536     537    WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.5     0.8     997     100      97    0.03     531     534    WED 06Z 03-FEB   0.0    -3.1     999      92      91    0.06     529     529    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.9   -10.0    1009      86      96    0.03     530     524

[Grizzcoat]

I realize it's a short term - hi res deal now,, but still. It's soo D**n close. Thoughts?

[gosaints]

I realize it's a short term - hi res deal now,, but still. It's soo D**n close. Thoughts?

GFS shouldnt be discounted.  Verbatim that looks like a concrete mixer right

[Snowlover76]

The last time I was this depressed over a snowstorm was in january 2008 where we were supposed to get 12+ inches the night before and it was heavy rain the next day. 

 

 

Oh well. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Oh my gosh, GFS has me at 20 inches.  NWS Hastings also raised amounts for my area to between 11 and 17 inches.  That low just seems to stop in north central and north east Kansas and pounds Central and Western Nebraska.  Already seeing schools let out early out west even though the main storm is still over the desert southwest.

[Snowlover76]

Oh my gosh, GFS has me at 20 inches.  NWS Hastings also raised amounts for my area to between 11 and 17 inches.  That low just seems to stop in north central and north east Kansas and pounds Central and Western Nebraska.  Already seeing schools let out early out west even though the main storm is still over the desert southwest.

congrats.  We will get ours someday here in Lincoln. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS- Oh my goodness.

 

[Geos]

Well that's frustrating to see everything but the RGEM go northwest. The models are changing because of the convection. Now if that is somehow over done...

Models can over correct around 24 hours out. Start watching the HRRR and real time observations soon.

[Grizzcoat]

NWS still has 9.7" for my location 20 miles WNW of DSM as 9:36am (update). I'am prepared for the downgrade and the 2-4" totals,, but this is fascinating even if it lets in letdown.

[Tom]

12z GFS- Oh my goodness.

 

2116.gif

Get ready to experience a very rare storm for your region bud! You've been waiting a long time. Glad to see you seriously cash in. I expect many pics!

[Snowlover76]

Hopefully the RGEM is right for this. I doubt it though 

[FarmerRick]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160201/12Z/f045/acc10_1snowc.png

[Jaycee]

Discarding all models except high-rez. Idk why anyone out here at this point is investing in them.

[Snowlover76]

is the RGEM a decent model this winter? 

[gosaints]

Discarding all models except high-rez. Idk why anyone out here at this point is investing in them.

LOL.  So will the national weather service discussion toss them this afternoon.  I am talking specifically the GFS and the EURO....

[jcwxguy]

accuweather is crazy, still calling for 14" in lincoln 

[Geos]

is the RGEM a decent model this winter? 

 

Yeah, I would say so. It's usually right about WAA. It was the only model really that accurately the sleet storm right over here 5 weeks ago.

 

If the 18z runs don't come down, then it's probably going to be mainly rain here.

[gosaints]

Its amazing how consistent the GFS modeled this storm from double digit days ago

[Snowlover76]

Jim Flowers says to ignore the GFS and use hi-res

[Grizzcoat]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160201/12Z/f045/acc10_1snowc.png

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee!

[gosaints]

Jim Flowers says to ignore the GFS and use hi-res

I bet he wont ignore the EURO if it buries him

[jcwxguy]

[Jaycee]

LOL. So will the national weather service discussion toss them this afternoon. I am talking specifically the GFS and the EURO....

Obviously not. But we're within 12 hours of the event in this area. In terms of what will happen, it's better to invest in short term models and actual radar output.

[Geos]

GFS 10 days ago. It had it's good moments, but they weren't consistent until day 7.

 

 

7 days ago

 

 

 

 

 

It started latching on about day 6-7.

 

 

[NEJeremy]

ratios will be low

yeah they were looking much better a couple of days ago when it looked like it would be 25-28 degrees, now we're in the 30-32 range.

[gosaints]

Six days out nailing a track pretty much is impressive

[gosaints]

Obviously not. But we're within 12 hours of the event in this area. In terms of what will happen, it's better to invest in short term models and actual radar output.

Yes you guys are much closer to go time.

[Geos]

Actually about day 7 it was pretty good too.

 

Anyway,

 

CMC is on the GFS track now, but colder.

 

 

I know it's not much...

NAM and GEM, RGEM showing some ULL snow in S WI and N IL, so there's hope for a little something afterwards.

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting a nice burst of snow right now, visibility at 2.5 miles.  Precursor to the main event.  Ground covered west of here in North Platte.

[WBadgersW]

I think it's going to be rain, maybe convection can fire up and bring it South, but at this point I think that's a stretch. Oh well at least I can get rid of the ugly snow.

 

Yeah, I would say so. It's usually right about WAA. It was the only model really that accurately the sleet storm right over here 5 weeks ago.

 

If the 18z runs don't come down, then it's probably going to be mainly rain here.

[Jaycee]

I was going to make a prediction, but I have no idea wtf is going to happen. I dont personally think Lincoln is in a goo area, but who knows.

[Snowlover76]

I was going to make a prediction, but I have no idea wtf is going to happen. I dont personally think Lincoln is in a goo area, but who knows.

I'm keeping my expectations low

[Geos]

I think it's going to be rain, maybe convection can fire up and bring it South, but at this point I think that's a stretch. Oh well at least I can get rid of the ugly snow.

 

I do too, but the upper level low feature one the flip side is something to watch now. I've picked up 1-4" of snow for those features before.

 

 

 

[Snowlover76]

The thermometer in my truck said its 45 out already.

[jcwxguy]

The thermometer in my truck said its 45 out already.

40-45 looks common across lincoln based off weather stations across the city 

[Tornadobrah89]

Nam has supercells all the way up into central and east Missouri