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January 2014 in the PNW

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#101
westiztehbest

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:25 AM

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Sound the alarms. 6z gets interesting

 

Yep.  The CFS was first on the colder temps around the 25th-1st period.  Let's see if we can get some consistency in the GFS now.

 

The PNA looks to go negative near the 27th and the EPO negative by the 21st.  The 30 day SOI has jumped to +4.0.



#102
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:36 AM

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I worry about him in as much as I worry about your dreary view on our damp and dark world.

 

Agreed.



#103
westcoastexpat

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:45 AM

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I'm loving how dry the long range looks.

This has been a VERY good winter for non-dreary weather. It really has been very good.

A bit embarrassing that most posters in this sub-forum may not even crack 4" this winter for total snowfall. I'd still say it beats last winter, though. Less dreary.

#104
Phil

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:49 AM

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I'm loving how dry the long range looks.

This has been a VERY good winter for non-dreary weather. It really has been very good.

A bit embarrassing that most posters in this sub-forum may not even crack 4" this winter for total snowfall. I'd still say it beats last winter, though. Less dreary.


U a troll brodah.
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#105
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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:09 AM

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No sh@t......The gfs has a snowstorm for the Puget sound for the last day of the month. January is saved.

#106
westcoastexpat

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:18 AM

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U a troll brodah.

 

?

 

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

 

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

 

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

 

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.



#107
HighlandExperience

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:29 AM

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?

 

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

 

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

 

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

 

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.

 

I'd prefer wetter weather in terms of mtn snowfall. So in that sense this winter sucks even compared to last year at this point. But who knows, it may redeem itself in a few weeks.



#108
Phil

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:34 AM

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?

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.


I was joshin'. I agree, much more in the way of arctic air over the conus, but there's been a horrid lack of storminess over the lower 48.

I'd like to see some nice phasers before the winter is over, and it looks like Feb/Mar could have plenty of them.
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#109
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:50 AM

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MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#110
BLI snowman

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:53 AM

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PNA looks to tank at the end of the month while the SE troughing might finally go away. Certainly a start. 



#111
Brennan

Posted 15 January 2014 - 11:13 AM

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Yesterday’s daily SOI value was above 50, and the pressure at Darwin was at 998mb for the 2nd consecutive day. The 50 reading was only the 6th in the 23 years of record. Here are a list of some of the FEW times the SOI daily number has been in the mid 40’s or above. 

 

January 14/15th 2014: (44.17, 50.71)... ???

 

December 25th 2011: (49.20) ... Snowstorm/Arctic Blast January 14th 2012.

January 17/18th 2011: (50.87, 55.43)... Snow/Arctic Blast February 24th 2011

December 22/23th 2003: (44.34, 44.34).... Snow/Arctic Blast January 2nd 2004. 

December 4/5th 2000: (49.61, 47.14)... Modified Arctic air at least in Bham Dec 10-15th. 

December 11/12 1998: (51.02, 49.60)... Major Arctic Blast December 19th 1998

 

It’s no fool proof method, but with the GFS starting to show signs of retrogression towards the end of the 6 and 12z, it makes me feel a little more confident in them.  :rolleyes:


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#112
DJ Droppin

Posted 15 January 2014 - 11:18 AM

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12z EURO full run
http://www.cascadeac...00mb_ecmwf.html
Watch the 500mb pattern progression HR 168-240. Something worth talking about might be how the flow bends around fairly sharply in British Columbia, Alberta and into eastern Washington. Note how the contours abruptly shift westward. It seems the ridge is squeezed a bit and very slightly backs offshore amplifying up through Alaska and Yukon, but it's still not in the sweet spot. There is some room for improvement. There could possibly be a glancing blow off to our east.



#113
westcoastexpat

Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:11 PM

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It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

#114
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:17 PM

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Yesterday’s daily SOI value was above 50, and the pressure at Darwin was at 998mb for the 2nd consecutive day. The 50 reading was only the 6th in the 23 years of record. Here are a list of some of the FEW times the SOI daily number has been in the mid 40’s or above. 

 

January 14/15th 2014: (44.17, 50.71)... ???

 

December 25th 2011: (49.20) ... Snowstorm/Arctic Blast January 14th 2012.

January 17/18th 2011: (50.87, 55.43)... Snow/Arctic Blast February 24th 2011

December 22/23th 2003: (44.34, 44.34).... Snow/Arctic Blast January 2nd 2004. 

December 4/5th 2000: (49.61, 47.14)... Modified Arctic air at least in Bham Dec 10-15th. 

December 11/12 1998: (51.02, 49.60)... Major Arctic Blast December 19th 1998

 

It’s no fool proof method, but with the GFS starting to show signs of retrogression towards the end of the 6 and 12z, it makes me feel a little more confident in them.  :rolleyes:

 

Interesting.



#115
DJ Droppin

Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:33 PM

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Yeah, at least it's something to talk about besides fog, inversions, and nothingness.



#116
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 January 2014 - 02:06 PM

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Yeah, at least it's something to talk about besides fog, inversions, and nothingness.

 

True story...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#117
Brennan

Posted 15 January 2014 - 02:40 PM

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It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

A crummy skim job? Ok thanks. 



#118
DJ Droppin

Posted 15 January 2014 - 03:39 PM

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All true... thanks!

No problem, Tim.  B) 



#119
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 15 January 2014 - 03:40 PM

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18z tries to get good... But that d**n ridge the entire run.



#120
Bryant

Posted 15 January 2014 - 03:42 PM

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It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

 

The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered


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#121
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 15 January 2014 - 03:49 PM

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The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 


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#122
Phil

Posted 15 January 2014 - 04:11 PM

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GFS has been beating the drum for a late-month SSW event. Temps approaching 50C!

http://www.instantwe...ev=1mb&hour=384

Big time displacement @ 1mb: http://www.instantwe...ev=1mb&hour=384
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#123
westcoastexpat

Posted 15 January 2014 - 04:51 PM

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The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

 

I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.



#124
westcoastexpat

Posted 15 January 2014 - 04:53 PM

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There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 

 

Thank you very much!! I was not even responding to Brennan and I still get treated poorly. The bullying by some posters is really getting out of hand.


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#125
Deweydog

Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:00 PM

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I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

 

Probably would help if you quoted the post you were referring to.  


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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#126
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Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:04 PM

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I'm not taking sides here but I was somewhat surprised that Brennan thought he was referring to his post.  It was obvious to me that he was talking about the glancing blow possibility on the Euro. 


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#127
Deweydog

Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:05 PM

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I'm not taking sides here but I was somewhat surprised that Brennan thought he was referring to his post.  It was obvious to me that he was talking about the glancing blow possibility on the Euro. 

 

Same here, but we have some pretty sensitive members and his reputation is poor.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#128
Sometimesdylan

Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:19 PM

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Picked up 2 inches of rain yesterday, started out as snow but quickly warmed up to above freezing all the way to 4000 ft. Another few wet days in the forecast. Lots of flooding all around SE AK. Sitka also broke a daily precipitation record. That is kind of shocking because Sitka is the rain king.


"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku


#129
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:52 PM

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Pretty warm for the region except for the major Puget Sound stations where they will be stuck in the muck.

 

Probably going to have the first 60-degree reading of the year for my location.       Reminds me of last January.

 

wa_tsfc.69.0000.gif



#130
GHweatherChris

Posted 15 January 2014 - 05:52 PM

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I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

 

Thank you very much!! I was not even responding to Brennan and I still get treated poorly. The bullying by some posters is really getting out of hand.

WOW.  Just WOW.


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#131
Phil

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:02 PM

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Good news is while the pattern sucks for the west, the -DA circulation has been favored. The arctic has really been frozen up over the last 30 days, with very little in the way of Fram export:

arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#132
Bryant

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:09 PM

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There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 

 

I wasn't saying he was a troll based on that exact comment, just based on his over all attitude on the forums. When you're first post on the new forum is "Back by popular demand", well that just screams troll in my opinion. Everyone has a right to share their opinon, and I urge everyone to do so on these forums. It's how you go about it which determines how it's perceived.


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#133
Poulsbo Snowman

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:16 PM

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I made it here finally!

 

BTW, interesting weather out at 360 hours.  Hehe.



#134
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:20 PM

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Phil... I was really worried about the Fram export.    Could not sleep last night thinking about it.

 

Thanks for clarifying!     :lol:



#135
Bryant

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:24 PM

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A very stubborn pattern. Nice to see an Aleutian ridge build in again though.

 

t0205g.png



#136
iFred

Posted 15 January 2014 - 06:26 PM

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Oi!

 

Please for the love of my underachieving stress induced baldness... if you feel like someone is trolling, just PM me, Black Hole, or Dominic, and we will get it sorted out. If there is someone you feel is disrespecting others, please let me know and try not calling them out on the forum.


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#137
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 07:12 PM

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Hopefully Jim will come to the new site.

 

He is almost oblivious to what is going on... he is so single-minded on posting all the good cold news and then getting out.   

 

I saw that he posted last night on the old forum and I doubt he even knows there is a new forum.   He will just find somewhere to post over there and then get out.   :)


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#138
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:07 PM

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I was joshin'. I agree, much more in the way of arctic air over the conus, but there's been a horrid lack of storminess over the lower 48.

I'd like to see some nice phasers before the winter is over, and it looks like Feb/Mar could have plenty of them.

That has been the case especially in CA.



#139
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:13 PM

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Hopefully Jim will come to the new site.

 

He is almost oblivious to what is going on... he is so single-minded on posting all the good cold news and then getting out.   

 

I saw that he posted last night on the old forum and I doubt he even knows there is a new forum.   He will just find somewhere to post over there and then get out.   :)

 

This post made me laugh pretty hard, I'm not going to lie. Poor Jim.


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#140
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:22 PM

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Amazing... the only rain in the next week comes almost out of nowhere right over Seattle on Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

Its been shown in different places in WA and OR in this time frame but has been closing in on Seattle with each run and now its perfectly placed to rain on the game.

 

Every game is a rain magnet.

 

gfs_namer_102_precip_p06.gif


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#141
MossMan

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:42 PM

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Hard to complain about today, Mostly sunny and fairly mild! Felt like a early summer evening while driving back north from North Seattle late this afternoon. The morning sunrise has become noticeably earlier as well. How about one major shot of arctic cold and snow around the first week of February, then a very early spring and a summer like we had last year!

#142
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:57 PM

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Amazing... the only rain in the next week comes almost out of nowhere right over Seattle on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Its been shown in different places in WA and OR in this time frame but has been closing in on Seattle with each run and now its perfectly placed to rain on the game.

Every game is a rain magnet.

gfs_namer_102_precip_p06.gif

I am not sure what your talking about. I have been a long time Seahawks fan and it has been amazing how dry most home games are. So I did a little research and happend to stumble across this article from Scott Sistek

"Seahawks games: Drier than Mariners games?!?

This might surprise anyone who has season tickets this year but a vast majority of Seahawks home games through the years have been dry. Of the 91 home games from the stadium opener in 2002 through the Tennessee game on Oct. 13, there has been measurable rain on just 18 of them -- or just under 20%. That averages out to about 4 out of every 5 home games dry. (Seven additional games had a trace of rain, meaning it sprinkled but didn't really get anyone wet.)"

Full article is here:
http://www.komonews....-228245861.html

Another more current article (Jan 12th): http://www.komonews....-239824931.html

#143
Deweydog

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:01 PM

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Brrrrr...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa...llx=0&scrolly=0


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#144
Jesse

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:05 PM

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Hard to complain about today, Mostly sunny and fairly mild! Felt like a early summer evening while driving back north from North Seattle late this afternoon. The morning sunrise has become noticeably earlier as well. How about one major shot of arctic cold and snow around the first week of February, then a very early spring and a summer like we had last year!

 

39/34 with fog down here. Nice to have it feeling like winter again at least.

 

Personally I am hoping for a cold/active first half of spring this year. The mountains will be needing the snow and it would be nice to have some active weather for a few months. 


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#145
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:09 PM

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39/34 with fog down here. Nice to have it feeling like winter again at least.
 
Personally I am hoping for a cold/active first half of spring this year. The mountains will be needing the snow and it would be nice to have some active weather for a few months.


I think we may some cooler days here also due to inversion and fog. At this point I will settle for fake cold.

#146
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:33 PM

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I am not sure what your talking about. I have been a long time Seahawks fan and it has been amazing how dry most home games are. So I did a little research and happend to stumble across this article from Scott Sistek

"Seahawks games: Drier than Mariners games?!?

This might surprise anyone who has season tickets this year but a vast majority of Seahawks home games through the years have been dry. Of the 91 home games from the stadium opener in 2002 through the Tennessee game on Oct. 13, there has been measurable rain on just 18 of them -- or just under 20%. That averages out to about 4 out of every 5 home games dry. (Seven additional games had a trace of rain, meaning it sprinkled but didn't really get anyone wet.)"

Full article is here:
http://www.komonews....-228245861.html

Another more current article (Jan 12th): http://www.komonews....-239824931.html

 

The games this year have been mostly cursed.   There is no denying it.   From the lightning storm in the Niners game to rain during the Vikings game and the first Saints game and the second Saints game.    And the Cardinals game.  

 

Flatiron said that every nationally televised game since the Packers game last year with the "catch" has been rained on... a curse!



#147
iFred

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:36 PM

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The games this year have been mostly cursed.   There is no denying it.   From the lightning storm in the Niners game to rain during the Vikings game and the first Saints game and the second Saints game.    And the Cardinals game.  

 

Flatiron said that every nationally televised game since the Packers game last year with the "catch" has been rained on... a curse!

 

Nothing wrong with that. Some of the best games I have seen is where the weather is "less than perfect".



#148
Utrex

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:47 PM

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The QBO is currently in phase 6,cold in the east (troughing) with the opposite elsewhere. nJ5CGrU.png


Soon, the QBO will reach its easterly phase (phase 8) and that's when the east turns mild. (West turns wild)

(Image from WSI blogs)
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#149
TT-SEA

Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:55 PM

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For most of my relatives... indeed.   :)

 

They are tired of winter.    More tired than we are out here... for very different reasons.

 

This has been passed along by a few of them:

 

1497451_10202874501086238_1095877480_n.j


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#150
Bryant

Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:29 PM

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Well, here's something really important.


The QBO is currently in phase 6,cold in the east (troughing) with the opposite elsewhere. nJ5CGrU.png


Soon, the QBO will reach its easterly phase (phase 8) and that's when the east turns mild. (West turns wild)


Hey Utrex, thanks for posting this image. If you don't mind, I'm curious where you got this? As far as I know, this is typically behind a pay site