January 2014 in the PNW

[Bham_Guy]

Won't be happening this year.

 

Does it ever?

[Guest Monty67]

Where is the snow wizard I am sure he could find something positive to say.

 

I was trying to stay reasonably optimistic about something coming along at the end of January or early February, But I am not so sure anymore.

 

I think its getting close to time to stick one of those big thermometer forks into this winter, it must be pushing rare or medium rare, it wont be long till we will be taking it out of the oven.

[Skagit Weather]

Well I think I have successfully found my way into the new forum. What a shame we have to start at 0 posts again. I was just starting to get up there.   I must say that our emoticon bank seems to have shrunk substantially and without multiple dancing smileys I am not sure if I am ready for a good model run if one ever show up again. I wanted to change my profile picture, but I haven't taken any good pictures of snow since 2012 so I guess I will have to wait for the next snow storm to get a picture.

[Skagit Weather]

I wish we could get a persistent ridge in March, April or May.

I don't know. March is still in the heart of ski season and April can still have some good snow. I think about mid-april when Baker has to close anyway is the time for the ridge to make an appearance. Heck, I got more snow in March 2012 than all of last winter or '09-'10 and half as much as this winter. It was morning snow and gone by noon, but it was at least something. What we really don't want is more "Junuarys."

[slim1357]

March is still in the heart of ski season and April can still have some good snow.

This is what has kept me from complete despair. Some of the best powder days I've had have been in March and April. At Timberline on Monday it was dense fog and a crusty layer on top of what snow fell last week. Most of the weeds and rocks are buried but they'll be back by next weekend for sure.

[BLI snowman]

Does it ever?

 

Last year had a good run in early May. 

[Bham_Guy]

Last year had a good run in early May. 

 

Yeah, I forgot about that 10-day stretch.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where is the snow wizard I am sure he could find something positive to say.

 

I was trying to stay reasonably optimistic about something coming along at the end of January or early February, But I am not so sure anymore.

 

I think its getting close to time to stick one of those big thermometer forks into this winter, it must be pushing rare or medium rare, it wont be long till we will be taking it out of the oven.

There is plenty to be positive about. Oh weather related, right right.... Well, for some of us at least it won't be gloomy. You can get outside things done. Don't have to worry about wet roadways, hydoplaning, or flooding. Don't have to get drenched walking around, so no muddy shoes and no muddy carpets. Ummmmm........Without extreme cold our furnaces aren't running nearly as much, so saving $ is a positive. It's not as cold and harsh on our pets outside, or the homeless. Ummmm......

[TT-SEA]

There is plenty to be positive about. Oh weather related, right right.... Well, for some of us at least it won't be gloomy. You can get outside things done. Don't have to worry about wet roadways, hydoplaning, or flooding. Don't have to get drenched walking around, so no muddy shoes and no muddy carpets. Ummmmm........Without extreme cold our furnaces aren't running nearly as much, so saving $ is a positive. It's not as cold and harsh on our pets outside, or the homeless. Ummmm......

 

All true... thanks!

[TT-SEA]

Where is the snow wizard I am sure he could find something positive to say.

 

I was trying to stay reasonably optimistic about something coming along at the end of January or early February, But I am not so sure anymore.

 

I think its getting close to time to stick one of those big thermometer forks into this winter, it must be pushing rare or medium rare, it wont be long till we will be taking it out of the oven.

 

 

Jim stops in daily to show us just the evidence that it will get cold... dismiss any and all evidence showing it will not get cold... and express complete dismay at those who are doubting that it will get cold.

 

Which would be fine if not for the emotions involved... because then he ultimately crashes very hard when time runs out.    Back in December he said he was getting physically sick when it looked like he might miss out on the snow before the cold.

 

I worry about him.    

[HighlandExperience]

I wish we could get a persistent ridge in March, April or May.

 

Don't worry March - April will be plenty cold and rainy in the lowlands with plenty of POW days in the mountains. Happens every year. 

[TT-SEA]

Don't worry March - April will be plenty cold and rainy in the lowlands with plenty of POW days in the mountains. Happens every year. 

 

Were you on the old forum?   

[GobBluth]

Sound the alarms. 6z gets interesting

[HighlandExperience]

Were you on the old forum?   

 

Yes TT, I live right down the street from you in Issaquah =). I just changed my name from Alpine climber to Alpine Experience =).

[westiztehbest]

Sound the alarms. 6z gets interesting

 

Yep.  The CFS was first on the colder temps around the 25th-1st period.  Let's see if we can get some consistency in the GFS now.

 

The PNA looks to go negative near the 27th and the EPO negative by the 21st.  The 30 day SOI has jumped to +4.0.

[TT-SEA]

I worry about him in as much as I worry about your dreary view on our damp and dark world.

 

Agreed.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm loving how dry the long range looks.

 

This has been a VERY good winter for non-dreary weather. It really has been very good.

 

A bit embarrassing that most posters in this sub-forum may not even crack 4" this winter for total snowfall. I'd still say it beats last winter, though. Less dreary.

[Phil]

I'm loving how dry the long range looks.

 

This has been a VERY good winter for non-dreary weather. It really has been very good.

 

A bit embarrassing that most posters in this sub-forum may not even crack 4" this winter for total snowfall. I'd still say it beats last winter, though. Less dreary.

U a troll brodah.

[Guest Monty67]

No sh@t......The gfs has a snowstorm for the Puget sound for the last day of the month. January is saved.

[westcoastexpat]

U a troll brodah.

 

?

 

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

 

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

 

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

 

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.

[HighlandExperience]

?

 

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

 

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

 

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

 

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.

 

I'd prefer wetter weather in terms of mtn snowfall. So in that sense this winter sucks even compared to last year at this point. But who knows, it may redeem itself in a few weeks.

[Phil]

?

 

This has been a very dry winter so far. Much sunnier than normal. That's a huge positive.

 

Sure, there hasn't been much snowfall, but the cold in December was better and longer lasting than anything we saw last year. Last year had a pitiful amount of snow too, but no cold air longevity.

 

This winter > last winter. That's quite positive. Not sure how you see anything trollish in stating that.

 

I think rooting for dreary rain in the long range would be trollish.

I was joshin'. I agree, much more in the way of arctic air over the conus, but there's been a horrid lack of storminess over the lower 48.

 

I'd like to see some nice phasers before the winter is over, and it looks like Feb/Mar could have plenty of them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[BLI snowman]

PNA looks to tank at the end of the month while the SE troughing might finally go away. Certainly a start. 

[Brennan]

Yesterday’s daily SOI value was above 50, and the pressure at Darwin was at 998mb for the 2nd consecutive day. The 50 reading was only the 6th in the 23 years of record. Here are a list of some of the FEW times the SOI daily number has been in the mid 40’s or above. 

 

January 14/15th 2014: (44.17, 50.71)... ???

 

December 25th 2011: (49.20) ... Snowstorm/Arctic Blast January 14th 2012.

January 17/18th 2011: (50.87, 55.43)... Snow/Arctic Blast February 24th 2011

December 22/23th 2003: (44.34, 44.34).... Snow/Arctic Blast January 2nd 2004. 

December 4/5th 2000: (49.61, 47.14)... Modified Arctic air at least in Bham Dec 10-15th. 

December 11/12 1998: (51.02, 49.60)... Major Arctic Blast December 19th 1998

 

It’s no fool proof method, but with the GFS starting to show signs of retrogression towards the end of the 6 and 12z, it makes me feel a little more confident in them. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO full run
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Watch the 500mb pattern progression HR 168-240. Something worth talking about might be how the flow bends around fairly sharply in British Columbia, Alberta and into eastern Washington. Note how the contours abruptly shift westward. It seems the ridge is squeezed a bit and very slightly backs offshore amplifying up through Alaska and Yukon, but it's still not in the sweet spot. There is some room for improvement. There could possibly be a glancing blow off to our east.

[westcoastexpat]

It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday’s daily SOI value was above 50, and the pressure at Darwin was at 998mb for the 2nd consecutive day. The 50 reading was only the 6th in the 23 years of record. Here are a list of some of the FEW times the SOI daily number has been in the mid 40’s or above. 

 

January 14/15th 2014: (44.17, 50.71)... ???

 

December 25th 2011: (49.20) ... Snowstorm/Arctic Blast January 14th 2012.

January 17/18th 2011: (50.87, 55.43)... Snow/Arctic Blast February 24th 2011

December 22/23th 2003: (44.34, 44.34).... Snow/Arctic Blast January 2nd 2004. 

December 4/5th 2000: (49.61, 47.14)... Modified Arctic air at least in Bham Dec 10-15th. 

December 11/12 1998: (51.02, 49.60)... Major Arctic Blast December 19th 1998

 

It’s no fool proof method, but with the GFS starting to show signs of retrogression towards the end of the 6 and 12z, it makes me feel a little more confident in them. 

 

Interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, at least it's something to talk about besides fog, inversions, and nothingness.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, at least it's something to talk about besides fog, inversions, and nothingness.

 

True story...

[Brennan]

It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

A crummy skim job? Ok thanks. 

[Gradient Keeper]

All true... thanks!

No problem, Tim.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z tries to get good... But that D**n ridge the entire run.

[Bryant]

It looks like a crummy skim job right now. I am doubtful due to climo but this is at least worth monitoring.

 

The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

[luvssnow_spokane]

The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 

[Phil]

GFS has been beating the drum for a late-month SSW event. Temps approaching 50C!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011518&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

Big time displacement @ 1mb: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011518&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

[westcoastexpat]

The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

 

I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

[westcoastexpat]

There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 

 

Thank you very much!! I was not even responding to Brennan and I still get treated poorly. The bullying by some posters is really getting out of hand.

[Deweydog]

I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

 

Probably would help if you quoted the post you were referring to.  

[Guest Winterdog]

I'm not taking sides here but I was somewhat surprised that Brennan thought he was referring to his post.  It was obvious to me that he was talking about the glancing blow possibility on the Euro.