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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect.

Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about.

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Guest Monty67

The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect.

Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about.

Huh, am I missing something. When did the NAM become a long range model?

 

Personally, I would take the Euro over the GFS operational at hour 240 all day, every day. The ensembles are probably somewhat comparable.

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Getting better...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

The models were showing a nice trend of possible retrogression toward the end of the month yesterday. That's all dissolved in the last few runs, though. A shame.

I guess you missed this on the 6Z.  Looks like retrogression to me.  Weak but nevertheless...

 

 

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The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect.

Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about.

The NAM is a short range mesoscale model. It is a piece of crap, especially in the PNW.

 

As for the rest of your argument, it's usually good to provide a source for this type of stuff.

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Getting better...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif

Aleutian low.

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The NAM is a short range mesoscale model. It is a piece of crap, especially in the PNW.

 

As for the rest of your argument, it's usually good to provide a source for this type of stuff.

 

For clarification, I meant the end of the range for the NAM, and the long range for the GFS up until 250 hours.

 

It's difficult to source the accuracy of a model over a long period of time. It's just something you pick up on. The Euro has been pretty awful this winter. It jumps around from run to run and many storm tracks have been totally blown, particularly in the midwest. The GFS has been very good this winter, and the NAM has also been quite good considering it is my least favorite model by far, it has nailed some storm tracks better than the Euro has lately.

 

They have done quite a bit of tweaking on the Euro which has resulted in more inaccuracy in the medium range from what I've seen.

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Getting better...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif

Baby Steps.  The GFS is showing some hope. :)

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I'm making my call..the way things are looking now, I think the upwelling wave breakers will lead to a full-on PV split sometime in February.

 

Until then, most of the cold anomalies will be focused east of the Rockies. After the PV breaks down, things will probably start to shift..in what direction, we won't know until we find out where the MJO will ignite in response to the cooling of the equatorial stratosphere. We should see a legit -NAO develop for the first time, so there probably won't be much in the way of SE ridging. But there probably will be a STJ and perhaps some drought relief for the SW US.

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Just IMO, our community is not nearly large enough to warrant all of these subforums. It hinders forum-wide communication, and frankly I find it ridiculous.

 

There's a reason AmericanWx got so big. When they started up eastern, they did not have regional subforums dividing the board..rather they just had a thread for each region, on one forum, so the community all together. Readers could easily jump from thread to thread, and interact with more members.

 

I think the current setup is dumb.

 

Just my three cents.

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Up by the Portland airport for a conference today. Looks like the sun is out!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently 61 at Newport. 34 at Eugene!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some of your posts would fit better in a mid-range forecast subforum. Your post about the PV split in February is an example.

That makes zero sense, aspects of it are being modeled, and it has direct implications for the PNW. People talk long range here all the time.

 

Should there be a 'model analysis' subforum? How about an ENSO subforum? An observations subforum?

 

So silly.

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Not to get to hyper about the 18z but it is honestly the best run for some time and continues a trend the models have hinted at for some time. This, along with other Meteorological  forcing factors  (i.e. SOI and others) make the outcome possible. The key here is the consistency shown for retrogression but specific details will be a mess for a while. Yes, it is still a long ways out but encouraging and a somewhat consistent large scale pattern the GFS as been showing for a number of runs now.  Hold onto your hats folks I think things are going to get interesting.

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It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.

Yeah, it has to start somewhere and there is enough stacked in our favor that is not completely unrealistic...  In the end this could all mean squat.

 

I just want Gorton the Fisherman to make appearance if this comes to reality. ;)  *hint hint*

 

How much you want to make a bet there will be just a few more people paying attention to tonights 00z GFS and the Euro

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It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.

Any ensemble support...anywhere other than the 1 outlier member?

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That makes zero sense, aspects of it are being modeled, and it has direct implications for the PNW. People talk long range here all the time.

 

Should there be a 'model analysis' subforum? How about an ENSO subforum? An observations subforum?

 

So silly.

I agree with your 3 cents. I was hoping we’d start from scratch on this forum, and maybe have a separate place for the history log of westernusawx. 

 

18z is believable in my opinion. Not saying it’s going to catch on in future runs, but the sequence given some of the other signals turning in our favor would make sense. 

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I agree with your 3 cents. I was hoping we’d start from scratch on this forum, and maybe have a separate place for the history log of westernusawx. 

 

18z is believable in my opinion. Not saying it’s going to catch on in future runs, but the sequence given some of the other signals turning in our favor would make sense

Yep, I share this sentiment exactly... 

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Getting better...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif

 

That is ridiculously cold.  Sub 480dm thicknesses in the midwest.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I love Dewey's pic!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That is ridiculously cold.  Sub 480dm thicknesses in the midwest.  

 

It will suck. I'm not looking forward to it. The continental cold really isn't that bad until the winds kick in. It was below -5F for most of the middle of the week last week here but I could barely tell with the calm winds. Of course, once you take your gloves off and your hands start to feel pain, you know it's cold... but I've never felt as cold out East as I do out west. The humid cold is just bone chilling. You just shiver in the dampness.

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It will suck. I'm not looking forward to it. The continental cold really isn't that bad until the winds kick in. It was below -5F for most of the middle of the week last week here but I could barely tell with the calm winds. Of course, once you take your gloves off and your hands start to feel pain, you know it's cold... but I've never felt as cold out East as I do out west. The humid cold is just bone chilling. You just shiver in the dampness.

 

I thought you were in South Surrey, BC?

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