January 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

If I'm right Wed - Fri should be very impressive on the WRF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This definitely has the potential to be a pretty solid February.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the trend continues with the gfs this has huge overrunning potential. But no torch and more chances for snow later on. Nice to seea possible active pattern.

[TheBigOne]

So would this be another PV event for us like early December?

[TheBigOne]

Why is everyone speaking in riddles?

Because they all want the one ring from Gollum so thus they are inclined to pass the riddle game? http://meganstuartsnotebook.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/bilboring.jpg

[Skagit Weather]

I don't care if the GFS is off its rockers, it is one of the first cold and wet model runs, even in the long range for quite a while and it looks beautiful. On the extracted data for the GFS it shows almost an inch of precipitation in Bellingham with temperatures cold enough for snow. It would be great in NW Washington if it verified.

[Skagit Weather]

In other news, it is the closest it has been to snow in two quite a while here. Temperature is 39F with relatively heavy rain. Up to .72" on the day now.

[stuffradio]

Is the rule 1" of snow = to 10 mm of rain?

[BLI snowman]

This definitely has the potential to be a pretty solid February.

 

Coldest since 1936.

[snow_wizard]

I don't care if the GFS is off its rockers, it is one of the first cold and wet model runs, even in the long range for quite a while and it looks beautiful. On the extracted data for the GFS it shows almost an inch of precipitation in Bellingham with temperatures cold enough for snow. It would be great in NW Washington if it verified.

The 12z Euro showed a nice snow event at day 10, so this isn't totally outlandish. Let's hope this is the beginning of a great trend toward this event being really cold and snowy.

[Gradient Keeper]

 Check this out. 1:00 AM Wednesday, and it's just going to get colder and the gradient stronger as the run progresses.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/slp.129.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

In other news, it is the closest it has been to snow in two quite a while here. Temperature is 39F with relatively heavy rain. Up to .72" on the day now.

With a dp of 28 in Bellingham don't be surprised if some places see snow tonight.

[snow_wizard]

So would this be another PV event for us like early December?

Nobody knows for sure yet. Looks like it might be snowier (which wouldn't be too hard to do).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 here with light rain. Very marginal tonight, with steadier/heavier precip there would be a decent chance of snow with these parameters. 

[Gradient Keeper]

If you look at IR Loop you can already see the pattern developing early stages. This might turn colder yet.

[BLI snowman]

So would this be another PV event for us like early December?

 

The actual PV was never over us in early December. This airmass at present looks less impressive than the early Decemeber event, but with low level support it could end up colder of course.

[snow_wizard]

Is the rule 1" of snow = to 10 mm of rain?

More like 3"

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 Check this out. 1:00 AM Wednesday, and it's just going to get colder and the gradient stronger as the run progresses.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/slp.129.0000.gif

Starting to look dangerous.

[Gradient Keeper]

36 here with light rain. Very marginal tonight, with steadier/heavier precip there would be a decent chance of snow with these parameters. 

850mb right now -3.1c, 925mb +1c

[Gradient Keeper]

4:00 AM Wednesday BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/slp.132.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian is fully on board for 850mb temps dropping well below -10C also. The real question mark is what happens around days 9 and 10. That is when we could get pretty snowy, with either quick warm up or a reload of cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

850mb right now -3.1c, 925mb +1c

 

With heavy precip I have had accumulating snow with -3C 850mb temps and 0 925mb temps.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Canadian is fully on board for 850mb temps dropping well below -10C also. The real question mark is what happens around days 9 and 10. That is when we could get pretty snowy, with either quick warm up or a reload of cold.

Yes, I think there is a good chance for a decent over running event and a reload after.

[BLI snowman]

35 with steady light rain here. Getting close to being in the danger zone

[Gradient Keeper]

COLD!

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_132_0850.gif

[snow_wizard]

The 500mb spaghetti looks quite good. Still some cold members at day 10. Some members look favorable for snow somewhere in the 6 to 10 day period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 with steady light rain here. Getting close to being in the danger zone

Could be a dangerous evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air now sliding south approaching southern British Columbia

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 500mb spaghetti looks quite good. Still some cold members at day 10. Some members look favorable for snow somewhere in the 6 to 10 day period.

The lasagna looks even better.

[BLI snowman]

00z ensemble mean isn't half bad the further north you go. YVR's 850mb temp stays below -5c the entire run.

 

[weatherfan2012]

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

The result of the said hemispheric shear regime has been persistent NPAC height rises. While the tropical forcings have been able to knock the ridging/wave breaking around, the general theme of rising heights somewhere around the NPAC continued given the momentum above the ferrel cell rifts.

phil are you still thinking the AO is going to trend to be more negative the data seems as Geos pointed out seems to be going for a +AO mid february

[Skagit Weather]

More like 3"

I would say 10mm of rain is equal to 3-5" of snow, depending of course on temperature. Don't we usually go with the 1" of rain is 10" of snow conversion with temperatures 30-32F? 10mm is .39" of rain so it equals about 4 inches of snow.

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like the WRF is going for at least 3 subfreezing days starting Tuesday in the north sound. That would be really nice unless the weather tried to "balance it out" next year with no subfreezing days.

 

Image is for 4pm on Thursday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/wa_tsfc.168.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Thursday night-Friday AM new surge of arctic air moves into the Columbia Basin as a weak 1016mb low drops south off the Coast.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013100/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive models tonight. Let's hope the Euro keeps the party going.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like the WRF is going for at least 3 subfreezing days starting Tuesday in the north sound. That would be really nice unless the weather tried to "balance it out" next year with no subfreezing days.

 

Image is for 4pm on Thursday.

 

That's freezing for almost all of Western WA.

[bainbridgekid]

-10 line to SEA at hour 120 on the 0z Euro.

[50shadesofvan]

NAEFS has 5 days sub freezing for Portland. 5...

 

[Skagit Weather]

That's freezing for almost all of Western WA.

I realize that, but Thursday is the coldest day. The model shows most locations other than Whatcom County getting into the mid 30's on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

I realize that, but Thursday is the coldest day. The model shows most locations other than Whatcom County getting into the mid 30's on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The quite reliable GFS MOS based on the 00Z GFS has SEA on either side of 40 degrees all of next week.  

 

Lots of sunshine on that run... also shows mid to upper 20s at night though with clear skies.