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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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00Z ECMWF is not as interesting as last night's run.   Main push of cold air drops through the Midwest again:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014013100!!chart.gif

 

 

Then it returns us to a warmer pattern the following weekend:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014013100!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The quite reliable GFS MOS based on the 00Z GFS has SEA on either side of 40 degrees all of next week.  

 

Lots of sunshine on that run... also shows mid to upper 20s at night though with clear skies.

Mid 30's for highes away from the sound look about right as well.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Not seeing much of a snow opportunity right now.

 

Could be something at the end... but the peak of the cold air appears to be coming though dry again.

 

The 00Z ECMWF precip map is bone dry for all of the area during the coldest air through all of next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z ECMWF is not bad, gets arctic cold a week from now. We just need to wait for moisture for next week, still a long ways away. Models could bring moisture by then. Chances are we get moisture because we have had a few arctic blast in a row now with no moisture.

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? EURO looks cold through day 8, then exactly like the GEM does shoved the next massive wave of cold air southward into the Gulf of Alaska resulting in a flat ridge building over us. I have a hunch models may trend even a bit colder in the 4-8 day range too. We're definitely Seeing improved model consistency and continuity now day 4-8.

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Not seeing much of a snow opportunity right now.

 

Could be something at the end... but the peak of the cold air appears to be coming though dry again.

 

The 00Z ECMWF precip map is bone dry for all of the area during the coldest air through all of next week.

 

Yes it is dry now but it will change. The precip we got in the NW this week wasn't forecasted by the models until the last minute.

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EURO has been making radical shifts run to run. Not sure it's going to be right.

 

 

Has to be getting closer now.

 

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show no precip through next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z ECMWF is not bad, gets arctic cold a week from now. We just need to wait for moisture for next week, still a long ways away. Models could bring moisture by then. Chances are we get moisture because we have have a few arctic blast in a row now with no moisture.

 

Past events have no bearing on this event in terms of owing us something.

 

In fact... the December event could end up being a guide unfortunately.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes it is dry now but it will change. The precip we got in the NW this week wasn't forecasted by the models until the last minute.

 

Different set-up.    This precip is being caused by a thermal gradient that does not seem to exist next week.   Its just all cold next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Has to be getting closer now.

 

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show no precip through next week.

 

We should know this drill... looks like the December event without the fun in Eugene.

First thing that comes to mind is when was the last time we had two arctic blasts that were dry in the same winter?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Past events have no bearing on this event in terms of owing us something.

 

In fact... the December event could end up being a guide unfortunately.

 

Anything can happen and it could very well be dry again but the more arctic air events you get, eventually moisture will finally collide with it to produce snow.

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First thing that comes to mind is when was the last time we had two arctic blasts that were dry in the same winter?

 

Don't know... but 2013-14 is looking like a strong candidate.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anything can happen and it could very well be dry again but the more arctic air events you get, eventually moisture will finally collide with it to produce snow.

 

Yeah... best bet will likely be when the cold air gets pushed out.     Transition event is possible.   But that is just not the same as getting snow as the cold air is moving in... such as in February 1989.  :) 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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First thing that comes to mind is when was the last time we had two arctic blasts that were dry in the same winter?

 

By the way... there was widespread accumulating snow with the last event.    It did snow... but it only lasted 4 hours.   It was not snowless.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Everything is in place next Thursday afternoon on the ECMWF. H in Southern BC and arctic cold in place. Just need to wait for a surface L to spin up. It has happened before.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_168_0000.gif

 

 

We will see.   Technically the opportunity has passed on that frame.    But it could happen just before that.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Within 7 days we can discuss details.    It has some meaning.     

 

I realize that, but my goodness.  This is a situation with a lot of potential variables and a fairly high degree of uncertainty.  It's a messy set up.  There's no shame in just letting it ride for now.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I realize that, but my goodness.  This is a situation with a lot of potential variables and a fairly high degree of uncertainty.  It's a messy set up.  There's no shame in just letting it ride for now.  

Then I guess there is nothing to discuss? ****..

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I realize that, but my goodness.  This is a situation with a lot of potential variables and a fairly high degree of uncertainty.  It's a messy set up.  There's no shame in just letting it ride for now.  

 

 

Models seem to be honing in on a dry solution though.     It does not look too messy right now.     Could change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models seem to be honing in on a dry solution though.     It does not look too messy right now.     Could change.

 

Someone will see snow at some point, more will probably see some when we transition out.  That probably won't change.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm getting more excited...

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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The big question right now seems to be in the 9 to 12 day period or thereabouts. That appears to be a time with strong potential to see some major snowfall if the southern jet can remain suppressed enough for any period of time. Still far enough out that models could converge on a 0z GFS type solution. Seems like we are due for one to go our way.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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By the way... there was widespread accumulating snow with the last event.    It did snow... but it only lasted 4 hours.   It was not snowless.

That was really a completely different event though.

 

The arctic blast was solidly over by Dec. 11th and we had highs in the upper 40's and low 50's from the 13th-17th. The snowfall didn't happen until the 20th.

 

It was definitely quite ironic that a region-wide major arctic blast couldn't be followed by any transition event at all, but the weak 24 hour period of coolish offshore flow we had on the 19th gave us a fairly widespread snow event.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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That was really a completely different event though.

 

The arctic blast was solidly over by Dec. 10th and we had highs in the upper 40's and low 50's from Dec. 13th-17th. The snowfall didn't happen until Dec. 20th.

 

It was definitely quite ironic that a region-wide major arctic blast couldn't be followed by any transition event at all, but the weak 24 hour period of coolish offshore flow we had on the 19th gave us a fairly widespread snow event.

 

Kind of echoes what had been discussed earlier.  Cold and snow are often inversely proportional.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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