Prospects For The Next 5 Years For The PNW

[snow_wizard]

I'm just going to throw some rough predictions out there for the next 5 years or so.  Given the fact we are going to be in post very strong Nino scenario with the likelihood of the lowest solar minimum in 200 years I'm going to go out on a limb.  I'm also considering the recent very cold winters (in relation to normal) that have happened in other parts of the country.

 

1. SEA has at least 50 inches of snow over the next 5 winters.  (could easily be on the conservative side).

 

2. The Western lowlands will see their coldest 5 year period overall of this century.  (not that hard to achieve)

 

3. We will finally get the January monkey off our back with a good chance of one or both of the next two being the coldest of century so far. (again seemingly easy to achieve when you look at the numbers so far).  In fact I would say it's likely we will comfortably beat the coldest January of the century so far.

 

4. I also think we will finally see our summers return to levels a bit more typical of pre 21st century climo.

 

It will be fun to dig this post up in 2020 or so and see how I did!

[BLI snowman]

Following the trend of recent decades, I would guess that we'll see one extremely decent albeit not historic winter in the next 5 years (2008-09 like), a few so-so ones, and one that is pretty abundantly terrible.

 

Over 50 inches at SEA is probably going to be a stretch. 40-45" has been the upper threshold in reent decades and I expect that to continue. I do think we'll get a genuinely cold January at some point in the near future, and at least one winter with over 20 inches of snow for most people.

[TT-SEA]

I would say this is pretty reasonable... not sure about the 50 inches of snow though.  Definitely think January will finally be a big month for cold and snow at least once.   2017 is my bet.

 

I would love summers like in the last low solar phase in the late 1800s and early 1900s.   There were some gorgeous summers in that time frame.

 

Hope we are all still around in 2020 to look back.  

[snow_wizard]

Following the trend of recent decades, I would guess that we'll see one extremely decent albeit not historic winter in the next 5 years (2008-09 like), a few so-so ones, and one that is pretty abundantly terrible.

 

Over 50 inches at SEA is probably going to be a stretch. 40-45" has been the upper threshold in reent decades and I expect that to continue. I do think we'll get a genuinely cold January at some point in the near future, and at least one winter with over 20 inches of snow for most people.

 

Even what you say here would be quite an improvement from the last few years.

 

I guess the biggest reason I think we may exceed this is the fact the NE quarter of the country has had some pretty historic stuff happen the past few years.  Particularly the extreme cold anoms of  2013-14 and 2014-15.  The real wild card is the very low solar that is coming up.  We are soon going to find out just how big of a factor solar has been in the past.  It seems too much to be coincidence how global temps have so closely followed solar grand minimums and grand maximums over the past 400 years.  Many scientists think the recent anomalous global warmth is a lag from the recent extreme grand maximum.

 

We had sharp global cooling after the last very strong El Nino in 1997-98 in spite of going into a solar max after the Nino this time will be going into a deep minimum.  There should be some dramatic cooling over the next two years.

[snow_wizard]

I would say this is pretty reasonable... not sure about the 50 inches of snow though.  Definitely think January will finally be a big month for cold and snow at least once.   2017 is my bet.

 

I would love summers like in the last low solar phase in the late 1800s and early 1900s.   There were some gorgeous summers in that time frame.

 

Hope we are all still around in 2020 to look back.  

 

I hope so too.

 

No doubt many of the old time summers were pretty great here.  Quite dry and reasonably cool.

[Deweydog]

The next two winters will be better than the last two.

[snow_wizard]

The next two winters will be better than the last two.

 

If that doesn't happen I will go insane.

[Abbotsford_wx]

I need to average 25" or more per winter to start making up for all the terrible winters lately.

 

My ultimate wish is for 50" in a single winter here. It's happened four times in my lifetime (and was over 40" two other times).

 

I would also like to see the temperature drop to -15C (5F) or colder... something that hasn't happened here since the early 90's.

 

That about covers it. It sounds like a lot, it was pretty normal by late 20th century standards.

[snow_wizard]

I need to average 25" or more per winter to start making up for all the terrible winters lately.

 

My ultimate wish is for 50" in a single winter here. It's happened four times in my lifetime (and was over 40" two other times).

 

I would also like to see the temperature drop to -15C (5F) or colder... something that hasn't happened here since the early 90's.

 

That about covers it. It sounds like a lot, it was pretty normal by late 20th century standards.

 

You should have no problem with any of these IMO.  A major Fraser River blast is nearly a given.  Even the blasts in the winter of 2013-14 weren't true Fraser River events.  The focus of the cold was a bit too far south.  My area does much better for snow during Fraser River events.  The last really good one was November 2010, although northern areas had a weak one in Jan 2012.  It would really be fun to see Seattle have a 50 inch winter.

[Parksvillewx]

I miss the Sea-effect snow events we typically get here with strong arctic blasts. Hopefully in the next few winters we get to see some of that.

[crf450ish]

I think Phil said something about the 17'-18' winter here for us could be one for the record books.....

[snow_wizard]

I think Phil said something about the 17'-18' winter here for us could be one for the record books.....

 

He would really have no way of knowing snowfall amounts.  His predictions are more whether it will be anomalously cold or warm.

[Jesse]

I think Phil said something about the 17'-18' winter here for us could be one for the record books.....

 

A 17'-18' winter would definitely be record worthy.

[snow_wizard]

A 17'-18' winter would definitely be record worthy.

 

Oops!  I thought he was saying Phil was saying they would have 17 to 18 feet of snow when he was actually saying the winter of 2017-18.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next five years will be interesting. Of course we have no way of knowing what it will bring. Who would have thought the last two years would have been so terrible. I expected 2015-16 to be a fairly lame winter, but to me the real shocker was 2014-15, what a dud! I would never of imagined we would have had such terrible winters back to back. 

 

My worthless predictions for the next five years:

 

We will have 2 Ninas, 2 neutral winters and 1 Nino which will be moderate. 

 

We finally will have a well below normal January in either 2017 or 18. It will feature at least one strong regionwide arctic outbreak. 

 

In the next 5 years we will have at least one well below average summer, which will be relatively wet. 

 

In the next five years we will have a major summer heatwave. At least 3 days of 100+ in the Willamette Valley. 

 

PDX will have at least 1 winter in the next 5 years with 15"+ of snow and EUG and SLE will have 1 of 20" +. 

 

In the next 5 years an outlying area of the Willamette Valley will go sub-zero in January.

[snow_wizard]

The next five years will be interesting. Of course we have no way of knowing what it will bring. Who would have thought the last two years would have been so terrible. I expected 2015-16 to be a fairly lame winter, but to me the real shocker was 2014-15, what a dud! I would never of imagined we would have had such terrible winters back to back. 

 

My worthless predictions for the next five years:

 

We will have 2 Ninas, 2 neutral winters and 1 Nino which will be moderate. 

 

We finally will have a well below normal January in either 2017 or 18. It will feature at least one strong regionwide arctic outbreak. 

 

In the next 5 years we will have at least one well below average summer, which will be relatively wet. 

 

In the next five years we will have a major summer heatwave. At least 3 days of 100+ in the Willamette Valley. 

 

PDX will have at least 1 winter in the next 5 years with 15"+ of snow and EUG and SLE will have 1 of 20" +. 

 

In the next 5 years an outlying area of the Willamette Valley will go sub-zero in January.

 

Sounds pretty good although I think we could go without a Nino for two reasons.

 

1. Post very strong Nino.

2. Extremely deep solar min.

 

We also know that winters following a strong Nino are essentially guaranteed a blast so we have some good guidance here.  It is interesting we had our strongest positive temp anoms well before the Nino peak this time.  That could be good.  Time will tell.

[ShawniganLake]

Even what you say here would be quite an improvement from the last few years.

 

I guess the biggest reason I think we may exceed this is the fact the NE quarter of the country has had some pretty historic stuff happen the past few years.  Particularly the extreme cold anoms of  2013-14 and 2014-15.  The real wild card is the very low solar that is coming up.  We are soon going to find out just how big of a factor solar has been in the past.  It seems too much to be coincidence how global temps have so closely followed solar grand minimums and grand maximums over the past 400 years.  Many scientists think the recent anomalous global warmth is a lag from the recent extreme grand maximum.

 

We had sharp global cooling after the last very strong El Nino in 1997-98 in spite of going into a solar max after the Nino this time will be going into a deep minimum.  There should be some dramatic cooling over the next two years.

Here is another one.  Ottawa, Ontario broke their 1-day snowfall record with that storm out east today.  20.1"

[Deweydog]

I think we'll have at least two leap years in the next five years along with some snow.

[Phil]

I think Phil said something about the 17'-18' winter here for us could be one for the record books.....

That's the one I'm watching. The Niña/+QBO will always have higher potential for you guys than Niña/-QBO.

 

Next winter will be a a Nińa/-QBO, so a winter reminiscent of 2007-08 or 1998-99 appears more likely than something colder and blockier.

[Jesse]

That's the one I'm watching. The Niña/+QBO will always have higher potential than Niña/-QBO, for you guys.

I'll bite. What's the QBO?

[Phil]

I'll bite. What's the QBO?

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Basically it's a measure of winds and thermal contrast(s) in the equatorial upper troposphere and stratosphere.

 

The QBO drastically affects the nature of of both tropical and extratropical circulations, and these effects vary by ENSO phase and solar forcing.

 

For example, in a La Niña, a +QBO favors an amplified NPAC ridge, while a -QBO favors an flatter NPAC ridge.

 

In the stratosphere, a +QBO favors a strong early-winter PV, with greater late-winter SSW/breakdown potential during solar maximum, while a -QBO favors a weaker early-season PV, with greater SSW/breakdown potential during solar minimum.

[Phil]

This is *the* paper to read, if you want to learn more about the QBO: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf

 

The long term goal is to better understand the QBO and incorporate it into seasonal modeling: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgsip-chfp/chfp-projects/77-unifying-themes/modelling-wgsip/wgsip-chfp/chfp-projects/359-chfp-smip-nao

[Dan the Weatherman]

Hopefully the Hadley Cells begin to shrink and retreat equatorward during this time period.

[Phil]

Hopefully the Hadley Cells begin to shrink and retreat equatorward during this time period.

La Niña certainly won't help that process.

[Jesse]

La Niña certainly won't help that process.

That seems really counterintuitive.

[snow_wizard]

That seems really counterintuitive.

 

That's what I thought at first.  Then when I thought it through it makes a weird kind of sense.

 

Basically an El Nino causes enhanced convection right on the Equator so the areas of convection (Hadley cells) are focused more southward.  With a Nina the water right on the Equator is much cooler so convection is actually forced to happen N and S of the Equator.  That causes the outer edge of the convective cells to reach into higher latitudes than during a Nino.

[Jesse]

That's what I thought at first. Then when I thought it through it makes a weird kind of sense.

 

Basically an El Nino causes enhanced convection right on the Equator so the areas of convection (Hadley cells) are focused more southward. With a Nina the water right on the Equator is much cooler so convection is actually forced to happen N and S of the Equator. That causes the outer edge of the convective cells to reach into higher latitudes than during a Nino.

I get the logic there. I guess I'm trying to figure out what mechanism gives the globe a net cooling effect during a La Niña, then.

[BLI snowman]

Downtown Bellingham hasn't had a measurable snow event (out to the waterfront) in 3 of the last 4 winters. I guess they maybe had 0.1" this year if we're being generous, but either way this stretch has been unprecedented for them.

 

Flatiron's "cold phase" at work.....

[TT-SEA]

That's what I thought at first.  Then when I thought it through it makes a weird kind of sense.

 

Basically an El Nino causes enhanced convection right on the Equator so the areas of convection (Hadley cells) are focused more southward.  With a Nina the water right on the Equator is much cooler so convection is actually forced to happen N and S of the Equator.  That causes the outer edge of the convective cells to reach into higher latitudes than during a Nino.

 

 

Does not make sense that La Nina and El Nino both cause the Hadley cell to expand northward.  

[Jesse]

Does not make sense that La Nina and El Nino both cause the Hadley cell to expand northward.

Exactly.

 

I've noticed a tendency of Phil's to contradict whoever he is talking to. Even if it means also contradicting a past version of himself.

[Phil]

Does not make sense that La Nina and El Nino both cause the Hadley cell to expand northward.

What are you talking about? The El Niño forcing causes the Hadley Cells to contract and intensify. The La Niña forcing causes them to broaden and weaken.

 

I don't know how you could possibly think I've suggested otherwise.

[Phil]

Exactly.

 

I've noticed a tendency of Phil's to contradict whoever he is talking to. Even if it means also contradicting a past version of himself.

Are you off your medications or something? I've never said El Niño forcing expands the Hadley Cells. That wouldn't make physical or logical sense.

 

I challenge you to quote a single self-contradiction I've made. Just one. I gauruntee you won't be able to find one within the last year.

[stuffradio]

Not sure if you guys caught this, but the CanSIPS monthly has cold in SW BC, WA, and OR for Jan 2017, and above normal precip while most other places are drier and warmer than normal.

[ShawniganLake]

What are you talking about? The El Niño forcing causes the Hadley Cells to contract and intensify. The La Niña forcing causes them to broaden and weaken.

 

I don't know how you could possibly think I've suggested otherwise.

I think you posted something in the California thread recently, where in response to a post about the lack of rain there during this El Nino, you mentioned the Hadley cells expanding northward.  I can see how this may have been interpreted as a result of El Nino although that was clearly not the message you were trying to deliver. 

[Deweydog]

What are you talking about? The El Niño forcing causes the Hadley Cells to contract and intensify. The La Niña forcing causes them to broaden and weaken.

 

I don't know how you could possibly think I've suggested otherwise.

Makes sense to me. From a moron's perspective, it simply illustrates the fact convection is enhanced during a nino, suppressed during a nina.

[snow_wizard]

Downtown Bellingham hasn't had a measurable snow event (out to the waterfront) in 3 of the last 4 winters. I guess they maybe had 0.1" this year if we're being generous, but either way this stretch has been unprecedented for them.

 

Flatiron's "cold phase" at work.....

 

That is pretty ridiculous for them.  As horrific as the last 4 winters have been here somehow they have all managed to come up with measurable snow.

[Phil]

I think you posted something in the California thread recently, where in response to a post about the lack of rain there during this El Nino, you mentioned the Hadley cells expanding northward. I can see how this may have been interpreted as a result of El Nino although that was clearly not the message you were trying to deliver.

The Hadley Cells have been broadening and migrating poleward for decades (especially since 1998), but ENSO isn't responsible for it.

[Phil]

Makes sense to me. From a moron's perspective, it simply illustrates the fact convection is enhanced during a nino, suppressed during a nina.

That's the basic idea, yeah. The conservation of mass and momentum...stronger convection over the equatorial band will lead to enhanced poleward subsidence.

[Jesse]

I think you posted something in the California thread recently, where in response to a post about the lack of rain there during this El Nino, you mentioned the Hadley cells expanding northward. I can see how this may have been interpreted as a result of El Nino although that was clearly not the message you were trying to deliver.

That was the post I was referring to, and that gave me some confusion.

 

Thank you for the explanation, Phil. Please do not feel the need to lash out whenever questioned.