February 24th-25th Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Niko]

Early call, but indications are that heaviest snowfall will be centered in central Michigan/westward where it stays all snow. Anything east from that is snow to rain and back to heavy snow with some accumulations. Wind will be a factor too with this storm. Late Wednesday night into Thursday is when SEMI will get the brunt of the snow and wind and moderate accumulations. Nevertheless, it will be fun tracking this storm over the next couple of days.

[jaster220]

GEOS posted:

 

"Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot."

 

About time! haha, all in good j/k

 

"..Ground Control to Major Tom.., we have our storm, repeat, we have our storm..please stay in AZ you apparently scare away monsters!"

[Tom]

GEOS posted:

 

"Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot."

 

About time! haha, all in good j/k

 

"..Ground Control to Major Tom.., we have our storm, repeat, we have our storm..please stay in AZ you apparently scare away monsters!"

Hahaha...that's to funny...I'll do my best to give your area a big storm buddy...

[Tom]

18z GFS nearly identical track and a little stronger this run...takes it through NW OH...it bombs out as it tracks east of DTW into Ontario... not alot of snow on the NW side though.

[GDR]

[Geos]

Western MI I think will get slammed. GFS/EURO blend sounds good.

 

From LOT

 

 

SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE ONE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK TEND TO
BE MOISTURE LADEN...AND WITH THIS ONE LOOKING TO BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THIS
COULD PLACE THE CHICAGO REGION IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL GIVEN A
POTENTIAL SUB 990 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO ALL
COME TOGETHER...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS AND HENCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW
AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME I HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
PORTIONS OF MY SOUTHEAST COULD HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY IF
THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHWEST TRACK.

 

[Geos]

At 10:1.

 

 

[jaster220]

Hahaha...that's to funny...I'll do my best to give your area a big storm buddy...

 

Thanks man!

 

DEGEX showing mby the "Purple Love" - if only that model had one single clown map that scored a bullseye, pls let it be this one:

 

 

[Tom]

Skilling's first glance...

 

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/mid-week-winter-storm-potential-being-monitored-in-sections-of-the-nations-mid-section-not-yet-a-slam-dunk-but-certainly-the-subject-of-scrutiny-by-forecasters-here

[Tom]

Almost all 18z GEFS showing sub 990's as the storm cuts up through OH...many low 980's...trends are in favor of an all-out bomb near the Lakes.  This strong of a storm system should generate it's own cold air.  Would imagine seeing more snow than the GFS is currently showing.

[jaster220]

Almost all 18z GEFS showing sub 990's as the storm cuts up through OH...many low 980's...trends are in favor of an all-out bomb near the Lakes.  This strong of a storm system should generate it's own cold air.  Would imagine seeing more snow than the GFS is currently showing.

 

Guess it's not impossible to get that strong of a LP without snow, just go back to Oct of 2011 (I think) when that freakish 981mb low spun up in NWOH and we got over an inch of wind-driven rain. Having said that, this IS February and the dynamic cooling should do the trick. I think GEOS had a skew-T showing the marginal temps layer was fairly shallow too.

 

Any chance this slows down just enough to get the good rates going about 1/2 a state south of current maps? That'd be about perfect me thinks.

[Tornadobrah89]

These models are all over the place. Gfs is showing further east and the euro and nam are showing it more northwest. But the nws has issued a huge swath of a 10% chance of 4+ inches even further west. The forecasts are changing every 4 hours with this storm.

[Tony]

This is looking like a beast.

[jlp]

MKX'S take on the potential storm http://www.weather.gov/mkx/winterstorm-022416

[Geos]

SREF likes the west models. 6" for a mean here part way through the event.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[Money]

Nam coming in north it looks like

[Geos]

This is looking like a beast.

 

Pure weather porn. Lol.

 

NAM slowed down also. Ozarks look to get pounded by wet snow.

[Money]

Down to 986 in W TN at hr 54

[Yerf]

[Madtown]

Saaaawing and a miss. Enjoy this one MI.

[Geos]

About the same spot as the 18z run.

 

[jaster220]

Saaaawing and a miss. Enjoy this one MI.

 

Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us..

[gosaints]

Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us..

Nothing like celebrating victory early

[Money]

Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us..

I hope this misses you so bad

[jaster220]

LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack"

[Geos]

GFS this run has Michigan written all over it.

 

Through 78 hours.

 

[Money]

LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack"

Ok? Don't be celebrating early when it's not even sampled yet

[jaster220]

Ok? Don't be celebrating early when it's not even sampled yet

 

Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm..

[Money]

Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm..

Enjoy your rain

[Money]

Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm..

You said more than that but ok

[WildWisconsinWeather]

LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack"

 

Yeah, that's true for Money.  In my backyard I've had one storm over 4" basically, that December 28th storm with between 6-8", so it's been a frustrating one here for sure.

[Geos]

GEM, coming west little bit little.

 

[indianajohn]

TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

Here is what the forecast models are pumping out for snow totals across the Chicago area on Wednesday-Thursday. The NAM. GFS and ECMWF models are all in agreement with 4-7" of snow, BUT that will likely change and go up or down because the track is not set and temperatures will play a big role in snow amounts.

At this point the heaviest snow looks to be downstate and in NW Indiana where I have seen some models depicting 12"-16". The lightest amounts will be across Chicago's North and NW suburbs. There may also be lake enhancement for areas along the lake.

[midwest buildit]

please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter.

[Geos]

please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter.

 

Hey - it could end up being a big pay day for you!

 

48 hours. EURO is stronger by 10 mb in LA at this time.

 

 

[Geos]

Taking a track similar to the last GFS run.

 

[Geos]

Looks like a STL/just south of there to central MI snowstorm on the EURO.

 

[earthandturf]

please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter.

The models have shifted NW as we get closer all winter, so I'm holding out hope for a 6-8" storm to close out the season. I could sure use the boost in plowing income to smooth the transition into landscaping season. I've also taken the spotters class before, love watching the severe weather.

[gosaints]

Detroit for the win??

[Tom]

00z Para is a bit NW of the Euro Op...00z EPS showing some decent clustering of its members and taking a track up through the OH River...also NW of the Operational.