February 24th-25th Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Tom]

GEFS are about 100 miles east of the EPS...should have been agreement by this time tomorrow.

 

Jaster is sitting pretty right now.  I like where you sit there buddy.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't know if I believe it's going to snow down here or not. My hopes are still pretty low at this time.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Thx - that Euro Para looks surreal the way this season's been over here! Those 16+ amts it shows southwest of me in Indiana - wowza - if that could continue up my way in future runs / actuality. This is kinda like GHD1 with the sweet spot shifted a bit east. 

[jaster220]

Okwx2k4

 

hope you get some action down there! You hung in here long enough you deserve it!

[Tom]

12z GGEM...shifting west each run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022212/gem_asnow_ncus_15.png

[Tom]

12z JMA taking a similar track as the 00z EPS up the OH River valley...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022212/jma_mslpa_us_3.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022212/jma_apcpn_us_3.png

[Geos]

I got a feeling one of the EURO's will win out. Not sure which one, but given the +NAO I would expect this storm to ride up the western Ohio Valley and into NW OH. CBS News Chicago is favoring the west solutions showing NE IL getting hit.

 

The UKMET.

One of the first models to see the last minute shift NW of the 2/2 storm.

 

[Tony]

This is going to be close for Northern IL for sure. Need it to be stronger to go just a tad further NW or increase in coverage on the western flank. Will be interesting to see where the models go the next few runs.

[Tony]

Updated WPC Map

[Geos]

We can reel this one in Tony! 

This would be epic 30-40 miles further west.

 

[Geos]

I don't know if I believe it's going to snow down here or not. My hopes are still pretty low at this time.

 

It looks really good for the Ozarks. I'd expect some watches in your area by tonight.

[Tony]

I still like where we sit on the western side of this storm especially as far as temps go as it will not be as much of a problem for us as it will be for those farther SE of us. Still expect wobbles from all the models especially the Gem.

[Tony]

I got a feeling one of the EURO's will win out. Not sure which one, but given the +NAO I would expect this storm to ride up the western Ohio Valley and into NW OH. CBS News Chicago is favoring the west solutions showing NE IL getting hit.

 

The UKMET.

One of the first models to see the last minute shift NW of the 2/2 storm.

 

^

I believe this is the strongest of the 12z suite so far.

[Geos]

I believe this is the strongest of the 12z suite so far.

 

That would be 1" of liquid on the east side of Chicago. About 0.8" near ORD. If that's all snow in NW IN, that's easily 12"+, maybe 15".

I wish there was more maps to view of the UKMET.

[BLIZZARD09]

Can you reel this in for us GEOS?

[westMJim]

Just for a laugh I took a peak at what big daddy Henry Margusity had to say about this week system (was looking for his big daddy hat but it was not to be found) his take on this week system? Mostly rain and severe storms but little in the way of snow.  Here is a paragraph from his blog today (2/22)

 

“A storm will move from Texas into the Great Lakes early this week. While the storm will produce some snow, the severe weather will be the main impact Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe weather outbreak will hit the South Tuesday and then move into across the Southeast Tuesday night and the Carolinas Wednesday. Tuesday will be the big day for tornadoes and there can be several large tornadoes that can cause significant damage. The snow will be moderate Tuesday night and Wednesday. Amounts will be 1-6 inches in most areas.

Posted on Monday, February 22, 2016 9:37:10 AM”

So much for a Great Lakes “Big Daddy” this time around (from Henry Margusity anyway)

[Geos]

Can you reel this in for us GEOS?

 

I think it will be easy. Just need it to go negative tilt early.

 

12z tracks. Notice how the UK starts going left of the rest.

 

 

 

 

Henry M. is out of winter mode it sounds like!   He gets like this in late winter.

Severe weather is his cup of tea.

[Geos]

EURO has the low near Memphis like the last 12z run, which was Huge.

 

 

[Tom]

EURO has the low near Memphis like the last 12z run, which was Huge.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022212/ecmwf_T850_us_3.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160222/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

12z Euro def shifted NW from last night's 00z run...

[Geos]

Don't need a huge shift - only about 70 miles to the edge of the 6" area. Tom, what are the temperatures like underneath the snow band?

 

Looking at 850mb temps it looks really marginal on the right side.

 

Nevermind - I saw the temps. The right side of the heavy snow band, the ratios will be lower than 10:1 for sure. 

[Tom]

Don't need a huge shift - only about 70 miles to the edge of the 6" area. Tom, what are the temperatures like underneath the snow band?

 

Looking at 850mb temps it looks really marginal on the right side.

 

Nevermind - I saw the temps. The right side of the heavy snow band, the ratios will be lower than 10:1 for sure. 

Mid 30's...probably over done a bit given the set-up...I'd say if the snow is rippin', temps should be hovering around 32F +/- a degree 

[Geos]

12z Euro def shifted NW from last night's 00z run...

 

It looks like the GGEM almost as the band turns more east heading towards Lake Ontario.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, can you post the Euro over OK please? Thanks.

[jaster220]

@ WestMJim

 

LOL @ Henry M. classic EC hype-ster. Wx don't happen anywhere else, especially when their BD became ours. Your back yard needs those eastern leaning models to bump back and join the western camp (Ukie, GFS, Euro Para) and I hope they do you need a big one too. Don't fret your Feb climo big storm stats either as records are meant to be broken (or set, however you look at it). This Modiki El Nino has a mind of its own and suddenly the much bantered "back-end loaded winter" wants to make Lwr Michigan ground zero as it were. Good Luck up there!

 

@ Chicago peeps - this a more true GOMEX low than '67 moisture bomb thus y'all are on the western edge instead of the sweet-streak back then. GEOS has the right idea = stronger, neg tilted at the proper time, throwing more precip further NW, and maybe get the lake help via NE flow. Hopefully we all make out fine. GL there too.

[jaster220]

It looks like the GGEM almost as the band turns more east heading towards Lake Ontario.

 

which is odd quite frankly for a "strong (phasing?)" storm to not take more of a left turn. April 2-3 '75 did so, but was already more of a true NE path vs NNE. Any reason this wants to go more right vs left as it approaches Lk Erie??

[gosaints]

which is odd quite frankly for a "strong (phasing?)" storm to not take more of a left turn. April 2-3 '75 did so, but was already more of a true NE path vs NNE. Any reason this wants to go more right vs left as it approaches Lk Erie??

occlusion process

[gosaints]

Every major storm this season has had nino influenced temp issues.  Trend continues

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control...favoring MI/IN region...

[OKwx2k4]

Every major storm this season has had nino influenced temp issues. Trend continues

How would you put the temperature influence on El Nino vs variance or just bad luck?

[gosaints]

How would you put the temperature influence on El Nino vs variance or just bad luck?

Every storm has had it...... Look at low level temps on the NAM that just came in.  You best be under the heaviest band if you dont want temp issues.  Its like an april storm

[OKwx2k4]

12z EPS/Control...favoring MI/IN region...

Slowly shifting east it looks like. I thought I was going to break my snowless streak. Looks like it may be safe.

[OKwx2k4]

Every storm has had it...... Look at low level temps on the NAM that just came in. You best be under the heaviest band if you dont want temp issues. Its like an april storm

Right. I've seen the temp issues (my 13 inch rainstorm in December at 35-36 degrees is a great example) but in reference to El Nino is what I was wondering about. I just don't see how el nino is to blame vs a wildly uncooperative AO or other variable. Not attempting to argue or anything, just would like your viewpoint on that.

[Tony]

Hi-res Nam looks good but operational is garbage

[Tom]

WSW issued more most of MI...

[Geos]

12KM NAM came NW some. Starting to look like the GGEM. There seems to be a second air of pivot near the south end of Lake Michigan after 60 hours. It might be an indication of the northern stream wave interacting with the main low. 

 

[Geos]

4km NAM further NW a tad.

 

 

Para EURO.

 

[Tony]

The 4km shows some major rippage on its NW flank

[Sciascia]

Looks like the snow area expanded west on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z. Painting 2-4 in Chicago when 12z had pretty much nothing.

[Geos]

The 4km shows some major rippage on its NW flank

 

 

Looks like the snow area expanded west on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z. Painting 2-4 in Chicago when 12z had pretty much nothing.

 

Better phasing.

 

ULL/700mb low is further NW this run.

[Tony]

Better phasing.

 

ULL/700mb low is further NW this run.

I believe the 18z Nam had the ULL way NW of the low