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March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm


Geos

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GFS and EURO have latched onto the idea of a heavy snow producing storm starting on Tuesday the 1st and then moving into the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday the 2nd. 

 

GEM has it and then it doesn't, but we won't concentrate on that right now. 

 

Let's see what we have going for this system.

 

- Stronger high pressure moving down through the Canadian Provinces will prevent this from cutting into Lakes on the EURO at least. 

- Teleconnections look to be: NAO around +0.8, AO around -1, PNA about +1. MJO looks to be entering phase 8 - which is cold this time of year, especially Lakes on east.

 

post-13724-0-37115300-1456425381.jpg

 

- High winds are evident on the EURO, which would cause blizzard conditions on the backside.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS and EURO have latched onto the idea of a heavy snow producing storm starting on Tuesday the 1st and then moving into the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday the 2nd. 

 

GEM has it and then it doesn't, but we won't concentrate on that right now. 

 

Let's see what we have going for this system.

 

- Stronger high pressure moving down through the Canadian Provinces will prevent this from cutting into Lakes on the EURO at least. 

- Teleconnections look to be: NAO around +0.8, AO around -1, PNA about +1. MJO looks to be entering phase 8 - which is cold this time of year, especially Lakes on east.

 

post-13724-0-37115300-1456425381.jpg

 

- High winds are evident on the EURO, which would cause blizzard conditions on the backside.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022512/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ncus_7.png

Ehhh I would favor a more northerly track than the EURO this far out.  

 

Plenty to support that as well.  Climatology lack of snow cover......

 

Couple days ago models had you getting warning citeria snows on sunday.

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Ehhh I would favor a more northerly track than the EURO this far out.  

 

Plenty to support that as well.  Climatology lack of snow cover......

 

Couple days ago models had you getting warning citeria snows on sunday.

 

Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run.

 

There was no snow cover before the pre-Thanksgiving Day storm either...

There will be some snow cover in WI from the Sunday system down.

 

The PNA would favor this system going more south.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run.

 

The PNA would favor this system going more south.

 

Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run.

 

There was no snow cover before the pre-Thanksgiving Day storm either...

There will be some snow cover in WI from the Sunday system down.

 

The PNA would favor this system going more south.

degree of phasing will be equally important

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degree of phasing will be equally important

 

Yeah hopefully it doesn't go GGEM.

Except for the November system, that model has failed this far out.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Psst.. don't look at the what the JMA wants to do!  As for DEGEX, it wasn't that far off with snow placement in SMI, but the usual rule of dividing by 2 and multiplying the remainder by .75 did hold up. :P

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Accuweather is on board

 

attachicon.gif650x366_02251955_hd22-1.jpg

 

Not one to be "late to the party" are they? Sheesh at our instant info society we've become. Everyone rushing to be first to get social media hits or whatever :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:wub:  CPC says WOOF! WOOF!

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z EPS takes the mean SLP

 

:wub:  CPC says WOOF! WOOF!

 

attachicon.gif20160225 hazards_d3_7.png

 

Would love to see the EPS members.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016022512/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016022512/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

12z EPS on board with a southern track just like the storm did back in LRC cycle 1 & 2 (although during cycle 2 it didnt really materialize into a big storm).  I'll post some maps for ya guys...nice track for a Lower Lakes/OV Cutter...might even get some snow into the KC region.

 

BTW, EPS saying this ain't the last storm in the parade through the next 2 weeks.  Giddy up!

 

 

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Hard to believe, but TWC has me for 70% chance for snow both Wednesday and Thursday of next week and 5-8inch for each day. Holy Crap! They are definitely on board also.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That really won't be a big deal in this set up.

 

18z GFS south this run....

 

Well that's a big difference.

 

Wouldn't expect the GFS to be in the same spot this run...

Probably a poor phase.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well that's a big difference.

 

Wouldn't expect the GFS to be in the same spot this run...

Probably a poor phase.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160225/18Z/f144/acckucherasnowconus.png

It just phases the storm much later his run. No biggies. That HP will keep his south due to the vortex near Hudson Bay IMO

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The Hudson Bay low is driving it, like Tom said. Stronger heights over the Arctic, West Coast Ridge is more prominent. 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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You guys...

 

If that West Coast is sharp like it now shows, there is no way this storm is cutting west of Detroit.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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