March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[indianajohn]

So is the "monster" storm still a possibility in our area? 

[Tom]

So is the "monster" storm still a possibility in our area? 

Yes, just typical model flip/flopping in the medium range.  I have seen it happen all season long.  Ensembles are indicating a potent storm.  Let's see how this all unfolds over the weekend.

[gosaints]

Sure a monster is still on the table but the GFS is a very viable solution.  Why we shouldnt get excited over models showing feet of snow over 100 hours out

[Geos]

Yeah this thing is all over the place, more than usual. 

I highly doubt this system comes back to being a MN to central WI storm. 

 

Got a feeling it will be a lower lakes system or Ohio Valley flat looking wave. Model isn't handling the interaction of the HB Low.

[gosaints]

Yeah this thing is all over the place, more than usual. 

I highly doubt this system comes back to being a MN to central WI storm. 

 

Got a feeling it will be a lower lakes system or Ohio Valley flat looking wave. Model isn't handling the interaction of the HB Low.

so probably a turd

[Geos]

so probably a turd

 

If the EURO doesn't budge, then I'll be a bit more optimistic.

[Hawkeye]

12z CMC and UK are similar to the GFS, so this isn't just one model going haywire.

[Niko]

Looks like the GEM will be loaded with moisture again.

PW maps slow to load tonight.

 

That wave position on Sunday and where it pushes the front to, will be key.

 

Edit:

 

At 10:1 it's ok, not what it was last night, that's for sure.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022600/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png

[gosaints]

12 CMC

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022612/gem_asnow_us_23.png

[Geos]

12z CMC and UK are similar to the GFS, so this isn't just one model going haywire.

 

CMC looks like a glorified front again.

[Tony]

so probably a turd

Been like this most of the winter...same story just a different storm

[gosaints]

GEFS quite uninspiring

[hlcater]

I'm gonna keep my hopes up, maybe its a bad series of runs like we had at the same range on GHD III. All the models dug SE and within 24hrs came back to what they had before.

[CentralNebWeather]

What a horrible change from oz gfs to 12z gfs if you wanted snow.

[GDR]

12 CMC

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022612/gem_asnow_us_23.png

yes

[Geos]

Differences in the 500 mb pattern with the GEM. You can see the extension of the Hudson Bay Low is deeper, thus is keeps the energy back to the north.

 

 

 

And here is the EURO with the closed off wave from last night. Big difference

 

[hlcater]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

 

Got that going for us at least. Euro looks the same as 00z to me. But I only have 24hr data.

[Tony]

Euro still on track and looks pretty potent with this wave.

[Madtown]

What a joke of a winter

[Geos]

EURO bombs out in central IN at 108 hours! wow.

 

[Tony]

EURO bombs out in central IN at 108 hours! wow.

Wonder how the temps look on this run?

[Tom]

Wow, 12 Euro is energetic...will post maps when fully load...

[Tony]

Hearing that the Euro is EPIC but don't have access to maps.

[Geos]

I can tell NE IL will do really well with 850mb crashing behind the low. Probably eastern Iowa too.

[bud2380]

18" for Chicago.

[Tom]

This thing goes neg and phases like a beauty...temps crash into uppwer 20's as this storm heads into C IL and wraps up big time.

[bud2380]

[Tom]

12z Euro...1-2"qpf...hahaha

[Tom]

Geo's/Tony, this is the type of storm track and temp profile you would love to see come into fruition.  The lake would enhance snow considerably.

[Geos]

Omg, that's epic!

 

Can't wait to see what the temperatures are. Ratios would go up and the storm went on.

[Tom]

Given snow ratios, that would be 20"+ for ORD...lol...only if it were 24 hours out!  Now this storm has me seriously thinking of coming back home.

[Sleather]

Given snow ratios, that would be 20"+ for ORD...lol...only if it were 24 hours out!  Now this storm has me seriously thinking of coming back home.

Pretty hard core, coming back to Chi-town for a snowstorm!

[Tom]

Wind gusts topping out near 65mph near the lake for up to 12 hours Tuesday night......

[hlcater]

Whiff around here though. would fit in nicely with every other storm I've had a shot at this winter. I'll still hold out and see if it will come back north. Nothing to worry about yet.

[gosaints]

Lock it in GEOS better start the all nighters tonight

[Geos]

Given snow ratios, that would be 20"+ for ORD...lol...only if it were 24 hours out!  Now this storm has me seriously thinking of coming back home.

 

 

96 hours to go before it starts. 0z runs will make it or break it imo. Weak wave, vs. amplified big dog.

 

[Tom]

 

96 hours to go before it starts. 0z runs will make it or break it imo. Weak wave, vs. amplified big dog.

It's funny, Euro is showing a monster while every other model has gone the other way.  Which model do we trust at this point???

[Geos]

It's funny, Euro is showing a monster while every other model has gone the other way.  Which model do we trust at this point???

 

On the EURO the low is able to dig without getting picked up by the Hudson Bay Low and close off quick. That's key

 

And like you said, lake enhancement would be a factor. Just before 120 hours, 850 mb temps are dip to around -12°C. With lake temps around 40, that would equate to Delta Ts of 16°C. That's potent.

You would end up with a LES plume pounding the western shoreline of IL before the low pulls east.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Pretty hard core, coming back to Chi-town for a snowstorm!

I'd love to come back and experience a potential blizzard in a winter that has been lack luster for our region, except the N/NW burbs of Chicago in November.  I'd feel like Jim Cantore coming into town!  "Rodger, Tommy Doppler flying in...."

[Tom]

The Hudson Bay low is going to be a key component here if the storm does intensify as the Euro shows.  It won't allow it to cut NNE/NE but more so ENE.