March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

67° already here. Feels like summer almost.

[CentralNebWeather]

54 here with a northwest wind makes it feel almost cool.  We have been above normal for so long a day like this feels chilly.  Normal high is in the mid to upper 40's depending on location in Nebraska

[Tom]

Over the last few days, both GEFS/EPS have been hinting at a big pattern change after the 17th/18th.  Dr, Cohen mentioned that a piece of the PV which is currently in Europe may retrograde west into eastern North America after week 2.  Could be a cold finish to March after what will be a very mild stretch.  I"m sure a lot of flowers/trees will start blooming in the central states and this could potential disrupt all that growth and potentially kill those plants.

 

Here is a plot of the 10mb map off the GEFS Day 5, 10 and 15 showing where the PV goes...follow it from Europe across the "Pond".

[gosaints]

the vortex is already a turd.  isnt now at a record for strength.  might get chilly sure.  doubtful the pattern change has the staying power of what we are currently experiencing

[Hawkeye]

73 at the airport today after 70 yesterday, and we are hitting these temps even with lot of clouds.

[Geos]

I highly doubt trees will be budding/blooming this month, except maybe south near the Ohio River and points south. Need a good week of really warm weather to wake things up like 2012. After tomorrow the Great Lakes cool off into the 40s. Daffodils will probably be coming up really soon.

 

Made it to 70° today. You can see on the GFS a trough developing 10 days out.

[Tom]

12z EPS even more aggressive on the pattern change after Day 9-10...interesting developments.  Prob will see some snow in the central CONUS somewhere second half of the month.  We'll see what happens.

[gosaints]

12z EPS even more aggressive on the pattern change after Day 9-10...interesting developments. Prob will see some snow in the central CONUS somewhere second half of the month. We'll see what happens.

If.minnesota doesnt see snow in march and and april thats a huge occurence

[gosaints]

Msp only above 70 5 times before march 15th. Today was one of them. Not much of a torch though right... And warmest dec-feb ever in the lower 48...

[Geos]

Msp only above 70 5 times before march 15th. Today was one of them. Not much of a torch though right... And warmest dec-feb ever in the lower 48...

 

Torch for MN, but down this way it's not that abnormal to have a couple really warm days before mid month.

 

Next winter will be a whole lot different if we have that la nina.

[westMJim]

The official high today at Grand Rapids was 71° and that will put today as the 2^nd warmest for today (the old second spot was 70° set in 1987. The record high maximum here in Grand Rapids for March 8^th is 78 set in 2000. Here in my area we started yesterday with several inches of solid snow cover and now it’s all gone for the most part.  There is still snow in the woods and there are snow piles and the snow piles at the parking lots are still very large. 

[Geos]

The official high today at Grand Rapids was 71° and that will put today as the 2^nd warmest for today (the old second spot was 70° set in 1987. The record high maximum here in Grand Rapids for March 8^th is 78 set in 2000. Here in my area we started yesterday with several inches of solid snow cover and now it’s all gone for the most part.  There is still snow in the woods and there are snow piles and the snow piles at the parking lots are still very large. 

 

I remember that day, it was that or 79° that day here.

 

Looks like it will stay mild until 3 or 4pm tomorrow, then the wind shifts NE. 

[OKwx2k4]

Over the last few days, both GEFS/EPS have been hinting at a big pattern change after the 17th/18th. Dr, Cohen mentioned that a piece of the PV which is currently in Europe may retrograde west into eastern North America after week 2. Could be a cold finish to March after what will be a very mild stretch. I"m sure a lot of flowers/trees will start blooming in the central states and this could potential disrupt all that growth and potentially kill those plants.

 

Here is a plot of the 10mb map off the GEFS Day 5, 10 and 15 showing where the PV goes...follow it from Europe across the "Pond".

If it gets that cold down here, it's going to kill the early morel mushrooms that have been coming up. :-(

[gosaints]

If it gets that cold down here, it's going to kill the early morel mushrooms that have been coming up. :-(

The ensembles show normal at best.  A cold day or two sure 

[westMJim]

It’s a warm 61° here at my house. And the overnight low at the NWS office has only been 56°  And the current record warmest minimum for today (March 9^th) at Grand Rapids is 42° set in 2006 (the average low is around 21°) so unless it falls below 42° below midnight GR will set a new record warm minimum for the date. 

[westMJim]

If anyone even still cares as of today the official seasonal snow fall total here at Grand Rapids is now 51.7”.  Of that amount 10.1” has fall in March.  My guess back on November 7^th for GRR was 57.5” At Detroit the seasonal total is now at 34.0” At Milwaukee the total is now 33.3” and Chicago its now at 30.1” BTW my November 7^th guesses for Milwaukee was 42.5” and for Chicago it was for 28.5”

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160309/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

If that happens I'm moving from Wisconsin

[gosaints]

If that happens I'm moving from Wisconsin

LOL....

[jaster220]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160309/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

If that happens I'm moving from Wisconsin

 

Look at that map. My house was exactly where the decimal is in the 24.6" amount near Traverse City. Many years saw plow-able snows (on snow pack) much later. I remember having to use my blower to clear the driveway so I could drive down to GR and catch a plane to Florida to visit my Mom there. It was Friday, April 7th '96 and the weekend snowmobilers were zipping across the highways where the trails crossed as I headed south. November to April makes for a LONG snow season. Even for one who loves snow - LOL. Ended up moving the next summer, at least in part due to back-to-back seasons where snow was coming down 8 out of 12 calendar months. Real spring up there is May most years. I enjoyed my 71*F yesterday in Marshall.

[Money]

No one cares where your city is

[Tom]

No one cares where your city is

Speak for yourself...I think the silent majority on here reads into everyone's stories or commentary.  It's interesting to read WestJim's stats and Jaster's info on past history or current weather stats.

 

Meantime, Spring training in full effect out here in the valley.  Go Cub's Go!  Cub's home opener 4/11...season opener 4/7 against the D'Backs.

[NEJeremy]

No one cares to hear the opinion of a 12 year old ahole either. Man where's that ignore function at again?

 

No one cares where your city is

[NEJeremy]

I was at the Cubs game vs the Dodgers yesterday. First pitch temp was warmer in Chicago than in Mesa!

 

Speak for yourself...I think the silent majority on here reads into everyone's stories or commentary. It's interesting to read WestJim's stats and Jaster's info on past history or current weather stats.

 

Meantime, Spring training in full effect out here in the valley. Go Cub's Go! Cub's home opener 4/11...season opener 4/7 against the D'Backs.

[Tom]

I was at the Cubs game vs the Dodgers yesterday. First pitch temp was warmer in Chicago than in Mesa!

 

Your here in AZ???  Where are you staying??

[Tony]

Speak for yourself...I think the silent majority on here reads into everyone's stories or commentary.  It's interesting to read WestJim's stats and Jaster's info on past history or current weather stats.

 

Meantime, Spring training in full effect out here in the valley.  Go Cub's Go!  Cub's home opener 4/11...season opener 4/7 against the D'Backs.

I will be heading to Vegas at the end of the month to take in two Cubs games against the Mets...should be a blast!!

[NEJeremy]

Your here in AZ??? Where are you staying??

I have an old high school buddy from South Dakota that lives out here in Tucson. We just drove up yesterday for the game. Been out here since Saturday and heading home this afternoon though. Only made it to one game unfortunately, but got to see Bryant hit a home run and see Kershaw pitch for the Dodgers!

[Geos]

Well the 60s were nice while they lasted. Hit 63° today here. 0.20" of rain over night.

 

Back down to 44° at this hour with a NE wind.

[westMJim]

My router (well its power cord) died last night so until I get a new one I am tied by a wire to my modem. Sort of like the old days! With a low of 54° yesterday Grand Rapids crushed the old record warmest minimum for the date of 42° set in 2006.  

[Tom]

Euro/GGEM are trying to paint a snow storm Day 9-10 in the central Plains.  Most likely will change but signals are there for a much colder period in the extended.

[Geos]

A gloomy day here, cool and cloudy. No rain yet though.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local mets hinting at colder and stormier 2nd half of March. Not saying rain or snow just increased chances of moisture with colder temperatures

[Hawkeye]

The clouds hung on for a while again this morning, but they've now cleared so we'll have a nice afternoon in the 50s.

 

I don't want it to be consistently warm too early, so a stretch of normal/cold weather the last half of the month isn't a bad thing.  In April, I'll take all the warm weather I can get.

 

Tom, do you ever see hummingbirds flying around when you are walking around down in Arizona?

[Tom]

The clouds hung on for a while again this morning, but they've now cleared so we'll have a nice afternoon in the 50s.

 

I don't want it to be consistently warm too early, so a stretch of normal/cold weather the last third of the month isn't a bad thing.  In April, I'll take all the warm weather I can get.

 

Tom, do you ever see hummingbirds flying around when you are walking around down in Arizona?

I sure do!  They are more frequent visitors when the plants start blooming in April.  They are fun to see around the pool area.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a Day 6-8 cut-off storm for the Dakotas and MN...nice March snows for MN region and near GoSaints area.

[gosaints]

12z Euro showing a Day 6-8 cut-off storm for the Dakotas and MN...nice March snows for MN region and near GoSaints area.

Looks fun.  Good luck nailing down a cutoff track at this range.  GEOS had himself getting 2+ inches of rain with the last one

[Tom]

Looks fun.  Good luck nailing down a cutoff track at this range.  GEOS had himself getting 2+ inches of rain with the last one

Nobody saying it's a lock...chances of mid March snows showing up is all...

 

Day 9-10 Euro trying to spin up a big cutter...LRC coming around again with the GHD Blizzard storm...right on schedule...47-49 days later.

[Geos]

Looks fun.  Good luck nailing down a cutoff track at this range.  GEOS had himself getting 2+ inches of rain with the last one

 

Never said that was happening. The models were consistent for awhile and then they changed. We've seen that a lot lately, haven't we?

Looks like spells of showery weather through the weekend. Daffodils have popped up. Grass is still pretty brown/yellow. That sleet ice really flattened it out.

[Tom]

After the 18th, I'm expecting a significantly colder period setting up just like was see during the previous LRC cycle #3.  After the GHD storm, it was really cold for a good 10 day period.  Both Euro/GFS tank the EPO, -NAO develops and a near neutral AO.  Even the WPO may head negative for a period of time which hasn't happened much this season.

[gosaints]

Never said that was happening. The models were consistent for awhile and then they changed. We've seen that a lot lately, haven't we?

Ya thats  my only point....  They were hundreds of miles off with this cutoff