March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

12z NAM coming in a tad farther south than 6z/0z and quite a bit colder. The HP in Canada is a bit stronger and south. 

[bud2380]

Looks like parts of NE really cash in as well.  Here is the 12z NAM.

 

http://i.imgur.com/BmbiHAG.gif

[bud2380]

I'm out of play for this one unless the Euro deformation band holds up, but that's 4 days out for that part of the storm, but some areas look like they could do pretty good with this one. 

[Money]

NAM is just getting started with the storm at the end of the run.

 

Here's 06z NAM at HR 84:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/crefptypemw.png

 

Here is 12z at HR 78

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f78/crefptypemw.png

[Money]

HR 84: 991 L in NW MO

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f84/crefptypemw.png

[Money]

Towards NE:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowc.png

[gosaints]

Looking.forward to moneyman backyard posts

[Money]

Looking.forward to moneyman backyard posts

 

 

[gosaints]

 

You and geos can tug it north and south

[Tom]

Anyone else not getting email notifications???  Wondering if there is a system glitch or not.

[jcwxguy]

i know there is a glitch in the computer for GFS lol

 

"running too long" LOL

 

 

[Geos]

12z GFS finally starting to run. Out to HR 12

 

On that note, I am going to move the last several posts over to the storm thread that Bud started. 

[Geos]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1238-potential-winter-storm-323-324/ <<< New thread

[Tom]

12z Euro with another juicy/cold cutter Day 7...pattern is wild for late March!  Euro bias holds back the trough in the SW a little to long for this to phase but I'm sure we will see correction in the coming days for another amplified storm system.

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO tank the EPO Day 9-10 to almost -5/-6 deviation from normal which would agree with their ensembles.  If there is snow OTG in parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes, I'd imagine some record cold if it works out just right.  A lot of the positive departures are likely to take a hit if the snows keep showing up.

[Tom]

The 12z EPS continues to suggest the deepest departures to normal Week 1-2 over eastern N.A. compared to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.  Would be one of the craziest finishes to a season if that comes true.  Haven't seen maps like those since 2 winters ago.  Complete dislodge of the PV is on the table right into the Lakes!  That would be nuts.  March 2007 analog riding high if that's the case.

[Geos]

Both GFS/EURO tank the EPO Day 9-10 to almost -5/-6 deviation from normal which would agree with their ensembles.  If there is snow OTG in parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes, I'd imagine some record cold if it works out just right.  A lot of the positive departures are likely to take a hit if the snows keep showing up.

 

This weekends cold has brought the departure down some. I can only imagine that if there is snow on the ground that later in the week that positive gain will have been all lost.

 

Cold tonight, already 28 degrees.

[Money]

GFS through 264.

 

Has 2 big systems affecting IL/NE/KS etc in the longrun 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/00Z/f264/acckucherasnowconus.png

[FarmerRick]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160321/00Z/f180/24h10_1snowc.png

[Tom]

CFSv2 getting much colder for opening week of baseball season, esp near the Lakes...Brewer's may need to brew up some hot cocoa instead!

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160320.NAsfcT.gif

[Tom]

06z GEFS suggest winter to end with a bang bang....

[Geos]

Looks like spring is on hold for a bit. 

 

Chilly day with sun today. 41-42° right now.

[Grizzcoat]

Of course it's a long way off,, but GFS does pretty well with air mass temps ,, 500 thk levels down to DSM on 4/04?? That is crazy...

[gosaints]

This epic cool down has me back below double digits departures for the month.  Tomorrow will pull it back up a bit however

[Geos]

Last 3 days has gotten the departure down to +3.2° now.

 

Not March anymore, but close enough.

April Fool's!

 

[Tom]

Wet and wild is the trend on the CFSv2 for April...April snows in the Plains/Midwest???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20160322.201604.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160322.201604.gif

 

Week 2 looks very chilly and stormy...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160321.NAsfcT.gif

[NEJeremy]

clouds have really kept down our temps today. was supposed to hit 75, instead we're stuck in the low 60s still.

[jaster220]

06z GEFS suggest winter to end with a bang bang....

 

Sheesh, more like winter v2.0 if that were to happen verbatim! I'm not into an April '82 redux. pass.

[NEJeremy]

the arctic outbreak showing up for the end of the month looks a lot more mild on the latest GFS. keeps the cold with overnight mins in the teens in the Dakotas and northern Lakes when it had lows below zero on the runs a few days ago. here in eastern Nebraska, we have one night below freezing during the "outbreak"

[Tom]

Both Euro/GFS are trying to unleash the PV down into Ontario/Hudson Bay by Day 10.  Might even go farther south...who knows.  Nonetheless, that would be something spectacular meteorology speaking so late in the season.  Mother Nature has her April Fools joke???

[Money]

Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold??

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/12Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/12Z/f336/sfctmw.png

[Tom]

Outrageous if that even comes close to panning out.  It has ensemble support...Strong Nino's way of saying we'll have a super finish to Winter???

[Geos]

Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold??

 

 

 

That would break records.

 

Except for a few days next week, it looks way below normal.

 

Next 10 days.

 

 

AO driving this?

 

[Tom]

EPO is going off the charts towards -6/-5 by April 1st...that is the driver along with a -WPO which we have not seen all season long.  Imagine if this was during January!

 

Meantime, Euro trying to develop a major trough on the 31st/April Fools Day in the central CONUS.  Models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the energy hanging back in the Rockies.  If this can phase with the northern stream, it would produce a monster storm to open April.

[Geos]

Guess I can forget about seeing any leaf buds or flowers the first week of April! EURO has the Great Lakes trough late next week.

[SE Wisconsin]

Hopefully I'll be able to get in one last trip to the UP to get in some late season cross-country skiing before I put the storage wax on the skis.  This is looking very encouraging!

[Money]

Euro looks like it's ready to unleash the cold after the clipper moves through at HR 240

 

850's:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160324/12Z/f240/850mbtempsconus.png

[Money]

Euro show any snow anywhere on this run, Tom?

[Tom]

Euro show any snow anywhere on this run, Tom?

A little bit near the Lakes, but nothing huge.  Need that storm to phase early on in the Plains.  Might have a good shot at doing so when almost all the teleconnections support blocking and a prime pattern.

[jaster220]

 

Money posted: "Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold??"

 

EXACTLY!

 

I need some of this, and fast!