March 3-5 Clipper Systems

[Tom]

Sudden shortening of wavelengths in the March can produce some potent hybrid Clippers...

 

Latest 18z GFS/NAM runs...

[Geos]

Hot on the heals of the storm tonight 2 more system look to impact the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. First system is as strong or stronger than the current one.

 

GFS 

 

 

 

NAM

 

[Geos]

Weaker third system comes through on Friday night. Could trend one way or another, but lets watch it here.

 

 

[Tom]

This would ease some of the financial pain snow plowers have had to endure this season.

[Geos]

Total GFS snowfall for everything this week.

 

[gosaints]

Total GFS snowfall for everything this week.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160229/18Z/f204/acckucherasnowmw.png

Will be fun to compare this to what happens

[Tony]

A wintry week shaping up for sure and will this be winters last stand.

[Geos]

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

[Geos]

12z GFS, NAM, and GGEM

 

 

 

[Geos]

EURO is a 2-4" event. Axis from Waterloo to Will County.

Western/southwest suburbs back to Clinton, IA get the heaviest amounts.

 

Looks like another chance at LES on the west side of the lake as a cold air mass backs into the area.

[Geos]

2-4" event, maybe 5" is someone gets lucky with this Thursday morning system.

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

[gosaints]

turning into turds

[Madtown]

Turds everywhere......flush the toilet on this crap!

[midwest buildit]

My forcast is down to around an inch tonight and less than an inch tomorrow.

[Geos]

My forcast is down to around an inch tonight and less than an inch tomorrow.

GFS became snowier for your area. I think you are good for 3". Expecting 2" or so up this way.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS has 0.40" of precip falling on CR, which is likely way too wet.  The UK is down to 0.16" and the euro only 0.11".  I think those two models are much closer to reality.  DVN's forecast of 1-2" looks pretty good.

[Geos]

HRRR focusing the snow band along I-88 tonight. That will pivot right into the heart of the metro after this time frame.

 

[gosaints]

ehhh this thing will probably follow past trend pacific systems drying out.  ride the EURO

[Geos]

Highest snowfall will be in a pretty small area I think, but I think someone could get 4" out of this.

 

 

You'll have 20s on one side of the storm and well into the 50s on the other.

[Tom]

12z Euro...total qpf

[Geos]

EURO looks like a 1-3" event.

 

RAP 

 

[gosaints]

dew points are hovering around 0

[Geos]

Through 2am. Still snowing back to the MS River.

 

[Yerf]

Advisory issued

[jaster220]

Will be fun to compare this to what happens

 

Well, for Barry Cnty MI, that 14" bullseye already verified, so yeah, if they get anything else - BUST!

 

Turds everywhere......flush the toilet on this crap!

 

Mich rocked it - SMI mostly 6-14" range..nothing funky smelling over here.

[Geos]

RAP hitting the southern LOT pretty good.

 

[shakjen]

RAP hitting the southern LOT pretty good.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160302/21Z/f18/accqpfconus.png

 

The darkest blue dot is a bullseye over me. I will let you know what happens

[midwest buildit]

So ill get about 3/4 of an inch. Lol

[Geos]

So ill get about 3/4 of an inch. Lol

 

You're in the 0.3" almost 0.4" of water zone on that map. My call is 3.2" for you tonight. Radar returns look like they are slightly north closer to Dubuque right now.

If I bust, I bust. lol

[shakjen]

Light snow started here at 7:00. Moderate snow coming down now.

[Geos]

Light snow started here at 7:00. Moderate snow coming down now.

 

You might end up in the zone of highest amounts. The radar looks good for your town.

[midwest buildit]

Doesnt look like much on radar yet. But noaa did up it from 1-2 to 1-3 tonight.

[midwest buildit]

At least on my phone it doesn't lol

[gosaints]

Turd

[Sleather]

Hardly any snow in Plainfield - SW Chicagoland area. Maybe 1/2" or so. Glad I didn't put gas back into the snowblower.

[Hawkeye]

I ended with an ok 1.5 inches of snow.  The precip total is 0.16", so the entire suite of 00z model runs went too dry.  My season snowfall has now reached 20.0 inches.

[FV-Mike]

This system was winter's last gasp. Glad we can move on. Only problem for the lakes people is we now typically enter the chilly, cloudy and drizzle period.

[NEJeremy]

remember when the models were showing totals well over a foot for this week's systems for a pretty big area around the Lakes? had to be a big disappointment for sure

[gosaints]

remember when the models were showing totals well over a foot for this week's systems for a pretty big area around the Lakes? had to be a big disappointment for sure

Every pacific system has dried up all winter long.  

[FV-Mike]

remember when the models were showing totals well over a foot for this week's systems for a pretty big area around the Lakes? had to be a big disappointment for sure

People need to realize how rare it still is to get 10+ snowfall out of 1 system. If lucky I would say Chicago on average gets 1 storm (+10) every other year.