[Eujunga]

Model riding time!

 

On the 12z GFS, Storm #1 for next Monday looked to miss us mostly to the south, Storm #2 for later in the week looked kind of 'meh,' and Storm #3 for Friday looked quite bullish.  The NWS bought into this scenario in its afternoon forecast discussion.

 

On the 18z, however, Storms #1 and #2 look stronger with a better track for us than they did on the 12z, and Friday's Storm #3 fizzles out almost entirely.

 

Can't wait to see what the 00z GFS and ECMWF show this evening!

[Alan]

Storm number 1 is back!

[happ]

Finally the rains begin.  Next week's rain totals should be greater than at any time during this past year and exceed the 2.01 recorded on Sept 15 [Hurricane Linda].

 

Friday: 65 / 48

 

L: 47

[Dan the Weatherman]

Next week is looking like a classic strong El Nino pattern at last with a series of storms coming through as the week progresses. I am ready for some good rains like we used to have!

[happ]

San Diego county scored some showers; 0.55 in Tijuana.  Bone dry w/ light ENE winds here.  All will change soon.  I can't help getting excited reading the forecast discussions; the enthusiasm is quite evident.

 

Sunday: 62 / 48

 

L: 53

[halofromajo]

San Diego county scored some showers; 0.55 in Tijuana.  Bone dry w/ light ENE winds here.  All will change soon.  I can't help getting excited reading the forecast discussions; the enthusiasm is quite evident.

 

Sunday: 62 / 48

 

L: 53

Agreed, looking at the AFD and what the models are saying, particularly for for Big Bear, this is going to be crushing for the mountains.  This is one of the those rare times when a Utah skier wants to ski SoCal.  I'd almost expect 2 ft at Snow Summit.  Avalanche conditions could also be substantial out in the SoCal 'Backcountry'.

[Alan]

The winter storm warning is posted for 4am Tuesday straight through 4am Friday. LOL!

I'm pretty sure my daughter won't have school the rest of the week - lucky!

[Dan the Weatherman]

San Diego county scored some showers; 0.55 in Tijuana.  Bone dry w/ light ENE winds here.  All will change soon.  I can't help getting excited reading the forecast discussions; the enthusiasm is quite evident.

 

Sunday: 62 / 48

 

L: 53

 

I only got a 5 minute sprinkle last night without anything measurable. I think things are going to change overnight into tomorrow in a big way!

[happ]

Showers, some heavy, fueled by southerly winds, have produced 1.35" here.  Satellite shows decreasing rain into this afternoon before another storm tomorrow. 

 

Monday 70 / 53

 

L: 54

[Dan the Weatherman]

Finally a good soaking longer duration rain event here in Orange! The rain started sometime around 8 a.m. and has continued steady for the most part since. It looks to continue for a little while longer before becoming more scattered late this afternoon and evening.

[Eujunga]

1.07" on the day so far makes this the wettest day since 12/12/14.

 

So nice to see a real winter storm again!

[happ]

Reports of well over 2 feet of snow in the Big Bear area and it is still snowing.  Appears a microburst touched down in the Vernon area of LA, per news report.  Recorded an additional 0.94 here this afternoon making it the wettest day this rain season so far.

 

58 / 54

 

2.29

Rain year [jul-jun]: 6.10

[Eujunga]

At 2.29 inches, you win this round, Happ.  I managed just 1.78 inches.  It looks like the regional champeen is Lytle Creek at 3.96 inches.  Mountain areas in general seem to have done well.

[Alan]

Rain and snow all day just turning to showers now. 2.80" liquid and a big slushy mess. LoL

That 2 foot report in Big Bear must be at the top of the resorts at ~8k I would think.

[happ]

Rain and snow all day just turning to showers now. 2.80" liquid and a big slushy mess. LoL

That 2 foot report in Big Bear must be at the top of the resorts at ~8k I would think.

 

I think more significant snow will accompany the next storm which is colder then today's system.   I'm looking forward to seeing snow on the San Gabriel mts/ Mt Wilson.  It seems like a long time since we've seen snow on the nearby mountains [4000'+].    

[Dan the Weatherman]

1.17" fell here in Orange with this storm, making it the wettest storm of the winter so far and the most rain from a single storm since September.

[Alan]

Absolutely! I'm expecting plenty of snow today through tomorrow but I do think this point forecast is overdoing it just a little. LoL

I think more significant snow will accompany the next storm which is colder then today's system. I'm looking forward to seeing snow on the San Gabriel mts/ Mt Wilson. It seems like a long time since we've seen snow on the nearby mountains [4000'+].

Attached Files

•  image.jpeg   179.02KB   0 downloads

[Dan the Weatherman]

Severe thunderstorm warning for portions of central and northern Orange County and SW Riverside County until 1:30 p.m., including the Orange area.

 

There has been some bursts of heavy rain here in Orange over the last half hour, and I have heard a couple claps of thunder in the last 10 minutes or so. It is a bit windy right now, but no really strong gusts at least here at my house.

[Eujunga]

Absolutely! I'm expecting plenty of snow today through tomorrow but I do think this point forecast is overdoing it just a little. LoL
 

 

If your point forecast was right, you should have 4 feet of snow on the ground by tomorrow morning   A tad optimistic, but it's nice to see snow reports of up to 2 feet from SBD mountain areas.

 

Looks like the shower activity may be about done for the L.A. basin area.  Not much showing up on radar.  0.98" accumulation here.

[happ]

Convective showers off and on all day; what a great pattern.  Winter has arrived!

 

55 / 45

0.65

[Alan]

Ended up with about 14" today. 3" yesterday and last night along with 3" rain before switching.

[richard mann]

Cliff Mass's blog entry for the 4th of January ..
 
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/01/californias-water-situation-improving.html

[Dan the Weatherman]

There has been some very heavy rain along with some hail a little while ago here in Orange. As that cell moved east, I saw several large flashes of lightning. There have been numerous showers throughout Socal tonight with embedded thunderstorms.

 

At last we have settled into a classic El Nino pattern!

[Eujunga]

Some snow on Mt. Lukens (Elev. 5,066) for the first time in a long while:

 

 lukens1.JPG   201.75KB   0 downloads

[happ]

It is cold enough to keep snow on mts for quite a while.  Great view of Mt Wilson; snow line down to at least 3500' early this morning.

 

I experienced what Dan described around 3AM; brief heavy shower.  Looks like quarter inch.

 

L: 44

[Alan]

Week totals. 3.02" rain followed by 28" snow.

Good Times!

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=108805

[Dan the Weatherman]

Week totals. 3.02" rain followed by 28" snow.
Good Times!

I bet the ski resorts were packed today!

[Alan]

I bet the ski resorts were packed today!

Not bad yesterday but today and especially the weekend will be nuts!

[Eujunga]

SPEAKING OF COOL, DOWNTOWN L.A. HAS NOT HAD A MAX TEMP ABOVE NORMAL
SINCE THE 18TH OF DEC (IT REACHED NORMAL ONCE ON THE 23RD) AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE NEXT 10 WILL BE BLO NORMAL ALSO.

- after having experienced two years of relentlessly warmer than normal temperatures, maybe there's something to the notion of meteorological "payback" after all.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I haven't been on the forums for a couple of days, so this is why am posting these rainfall totals right now. 1.83" fell here in Orange with last Wednesday's (Jan. 6th) storm, bringing the January total to 3" so far.

[happ]

Considering how cold it has been, I'm surprised by the quick melting of snow on Mt Wilson [ele: 5700'].  There's been no rain for 3 days though some light showers [mostly under 0.05] occurred locally overnight in places [Little Tujunga 0.03].  Any mention of ridging strikes fear; we know how quickly the rain season can abruptly end.  Any thoughts on when the next big storms will arrive? 

 

Saturday 59 / 46

 

L: 49

[Eujunga]

No rain in the forecast for SoCal all the way out to Hour 384.

 

What if they threw an El Niño and nobody came?

 

There's always February and March (we hope).

[happ]

No rain in the forecast for SoCal all the way out to Hour 384.

 

What if they threw an El Niño and nobody came?

 

There's always February and March (we hope).

 

Normally winter rains occur off and on in "regular" years between extended periods of ridging.  It appears northern California is in for heavy rain/ snow next week. 

 

Monday: 65 / 49

 

L: 47

[WeatherCrossing]

No rain in the forecast for SoCal all the way out to Hour 384.

 

What if they threw an El Niño and nobody came?

 

There's always February and March (we hope).

 

It looks like Northern California will get soaked these next 10 days.  Hopefully they can share a little with Southern California!

 

 240_precipt_centralwest.png   91.21KB   0 downloads  240_precipt_southwest.png   63.63KB   0 downloads

[Mr Marine Layer]

I have just joined the forums. I am from Lake Forest, which is near Irvine in Orange County.

 

I am hoping to see some more El Nino activity here soon. All we've had are a few good storms last week and now we are back to the northwest flow pattern that has dominated us for the past 2 months. El Nino is supposed to bring the pacific jet stream over us, not the polar jet stream.  

 

Hopefully we will get at least one multi-day pineapple express system followed by a strong cold front. Last time that happened was December 2010, I believe.

[happ]

I have just joined the forums. I am from Lake Forest, which is near Irvine in Orange County.

 

I am hoping to see some more El Nino activity here soon. All we've had are a few good storms last week and now we are back to the northwest flow pattern that has dominated us for the past 2 months. El Nino is supposed to bring the pacific jet stream over us, not the polar jet stream.  

 

Hopefully we will get at least one multi-day pineapple express system followed by a strong cold front. Last time that happened was December 2010, I believe.

 

Welcome Mr Marine Layer & WeatherCrossing

 

I've read that "pineapple express" systems are not characteristic of El Nino even though it would seem that the subtropical jet would be especially strong during ENSO+.  Any thoughts?

[Mr Marine Layer]

Today was the first above normal day we've had in a while, at least for the high temperature, but the morning was frosty.

[happ]

Today was the first above normal day we've had in a while, at least for the high temperature, but the morning was frosty.

 

It was only the second 70° day this month.  Atmospheric heights have been suppressed for quite a while. The snow-capped view of Mt San Antonio/ Mt Baldy and the San Bernardino mts yesterday was spectacular.

 

Tuesday 70 / 47

 

L: 46

[WeatherCrossing]

A little bit of CAPE and some strong low level shear prompts the NWS Sacramento to talk about some weak rotation in the Central Valley today.  It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.

 

NWS Sacramento - "Strong storms are possible this afternoon over the forecast area with significant low level shear for rotating storms and possible even weak tornadoes."

 

Attached Files

•  Screen Shot 2016-01-13 at 11.39.33 AM.png   857.81KB   0 downloads

[happ]

I remember viewing the f-1 damage to orchards around Chico in 2011.  The Central Valley probably has more tornadoes than anywhere else in California.

 

 https://www.youtube....h?v=2pHC51psZZ8

[Mr Marine Layer]

Nice clouds tonight at sunset. Sunset is now about 17 minutes later than December 21 (the shortest day) and 21 minutes later than December 4 (the earliest sunset).

 

 Sunset20160113.png   755.02KB   1 downloads

[Mr Marine Layer]

A little bit of CAPE and some strong low level shear prompts the NWS Sacramento to talk about some weak rotation in the Central Valley today.  It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.

 

NWS Sacramento - "Strong storms are possible this afternoon over the forecast area with significant low level shear for rotating storms and possible even weak tornadoes."

 

Tornadoes? This time of year they usually have that Tule fog. That would definitely mix it out.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I have just joined the forums. I am from Lake Forest, which is near Irvine in Orange County.

I am hoping to see some more El Nino activity here soon. All we've had are a few good storms last week and now we are back to the northwest flow pattern that has dominated us for the past 2 months. El Nino is supposed to bring the pacific jet stream over us, not the polar jet stream.

Hopefully we will get at least one multi-day pineapple express system followed by a strong cold front. Last time that happened was December 2010, I believe.

Welcome to the forums! It's nice to see another member from Orange County!

[Dan the Weatherman]

It looks like Northern California will get soaked these next 10 days. Hopefully they can share a little with Southern California!

Welcome to the forum! What part of CA are you located?

[Dan the Weatherman]

Nice clouds tonight at sunset. Sunset is now about 17 minutes later than December 21 (the shortest day) and 21 minutes later than December 4 (the earliest sunset).
 
Sunset20160113.png

Is that the Irvine Spectrum area in that photo?

[Mr Marine Layer]

Is that the Irvine Spectrum area in that photo?

Yes, it is right around Irvine Center and Barranca.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks like our strong El Nino is already weakening if you compare today to about a month ago. I've even see some reports that we could be in La Nina by next year.

 

December 17

January 14

[happ]

Looks like our strong El Nino is already weakening if you compare today to about a month ago. I've even see some reports that we could be in La Nina by next year.

 

December 17

January 14

 

 

My hope is that we get abundant rainfall before El Nino fads.  La Nina years do not necessarily mean dry years.  Glad that northern half of California is getting good rains/ snow into next week.  Ran into a little drizzle this morning in South Bay.

 

Thursday: 65 / 47

 

L: 50

[Eujunga]

Took a day trip to Mt. Pinos yesterday.  Really pleased to see so much snow up there.  On the way, made a pilgrimage to the weather station at Sandberg! Nice views of cloud formations over the Tehachapis from there.

 

 160114004web.jpg   101.65KB   0 downloads<- Sandberg

 

 160114001web.jpg   120.3KB   0 downloads

 

 160114003web.jpg   154KB   0 downloads

 

 160114018web.jpg   131.03KB   0 downloads

 

 160114024web.jpg   175.99KB   0 downloads

 

 160114036web.jpg   202.79KB   0 downloads