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2016 California Weather/ Climate

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#51
WeatherCrossing

Posted 15 January 2016 - 11:32 AM

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Welcome to the forum! What part of CA are you located?

Hi Dan, we are in Sacramento!  


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#52
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 15 January 2016 - 06:58 PM

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Nice pictures, Eujunga.

 

Today was more like a May Gray/June Gloom day than mid-January. Very solid marine layer for this time of year. However, I want some real rain, especially if it has to be cloudy.



#53
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 January 2016 - 01:44 AM

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My hope is that we get abundant rainfall before El Nino fads.  La Nina years do not necessarily mean dry years.  Glad that northern half of California is getting good rains/ snow into next week.  Ran into a little drizzle this morning in South Bay.

 

Thursday: 65 / 47

 

L: 50

 

El Nino events usually start to weaken about this time of year. I think there is still plenty of warmth to produce good rainfall until spring.



#54
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 January 2016 - 01:48 AM

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Hi Dan, we are in Sacramento!  

 

It is good to see some more members here on the CA forum!


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#55
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 January 2016 - 01:50 AM

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Nice pictures, Eujunga.

 

Today was more like a May Gray/June Gloom day than mid-January. Very solid marine layer for this time of year. However, I want some real rain, especially if it has to be cloudy.

 

I am ready for some more good rain here, too. This El Nino seems like it wants to act like La Nina from time to time for some reason. Hopefully February delivers for Socal in a big way. The two storms we have had so far in January were great, but we need a couple more biggies before the end of the month, otherwise this will be a run-of-the-mill wet January for Socal as opposed to a really wet January that often occurs in strong El Nino events.


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#56
Eujunga

Posted 16 January 2016 - 08:21 AM

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I am ready for some more good rain here, too. This El Nino seems like it wants to act like La Nina from time to time for some reason. Hopefully February delivers for Socal in a big way. The two storms we have had so far in January were great, but we need a couple more biggies before the end of the month, otherwise this will be a run-of-the-mill wet January for Socal as opposed to a really wet January that often occurs in strong El Nino events.

 

I would point out (as I did on the PNW forum) that despite all the hype about the "El Niño Storms" earlier this month, the L.A. area is still at just 66% of normal rainfall for the season, and dropping each day that it doesn't rain.

 

I've seen a lot of comments referring to the overall weather pattern as being "typical Niño," but that hasn't translated into additional rainfall for SoCal, and the models still show nothing encouraging as yet.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#57
Eujunga

Posted 16 January 2016 - 08:32 AM

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Welcome, Mr Marine Layer and WeatherCrossing!

 

Please post early and often -- I, for one, would welcome more activity and variety on the California forum.

 

Sometimes I find it amazing that out of a population of nearly 40,000,000 people in California, you can count on one hand the number who are interested enough in the weather to participate here.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#58
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 January 2016 - 04:00 PM

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Welcome, Mr Marine Layer and WeatherCrossing!

 

Please post early and often -- I, for one, would welcome more activity and variety on the California forum.

 

Sometimes I find it amazing that out of a population of nearly 40,000,000 people in California, you can count on one hand the number who are interested enough in the weather to participate here.

 

Well, there has not been much to talk about as of late. We are in a rather boring May-like pattern now. It's not like the rest of the country where they have snowstorms in winter and thunderstorms every day of the summer.

 

Anyway, it was really hazy today and I assume it's going to stay that way for quite a while as there are no cold storms or Santa Ana winds in the foreseeable future. This picture is from the Lake Forest Sports Park, which is pretty close to Saddleback Mountain.

Attached File  JanuaryHaze.png   433.48KB   0 downloads



#59
Eujunga

Posted 16 January 2016 - 05:19 PM

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Well, there has not been much to talk about as of late. We are in a rather boring May-like pattern now. It's not like the rest of the country where they have snowstorms in winter and thunderstorms every day of the summer.

 

Good point.  Maybe I should amend my comment to say "I, for one, would welcome more activity and variety in the California weather."

 

Looks pretty dull for at least the next couple of weeks, but at least we're not torching epically like the last few years.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#60
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 January 2016 - 09:33 PM

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Quoted from the 9:07 PM NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion tonight

THE MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WEST WILL MAKE IT 
  DIFFICULT TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS INTO SOCAL. THE LATEST 16 
  DAY GFS RUNS FROM 18Z AND 00Z SUGGEST THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF 
  SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY TO UNDER CUT THE RIDGE WILL BE DURING THE 
  FINAL DAYS OF THE MONTH. 

 

Well, it's been a very mean (nasty) ridge in that it's contributing to our drought by blocking off storms. However, seems to be the same general pattern of persistent ridging as the last 2 winters except that it's much further south so it is allowing more periods of cool, cloudy weather and weak fronts through at times.

 

So they do say something could happen by the end of the month, but I think we've seen the models show things like this before only to disappoint. Also, I think storms undercutting the ridge means they just push the ridge out of the way for a few days, but the ridge never really does go away. It always seems to come back.

 

What we need is something to destroy the ridge completely and get us stuck in a deep trough for a while.


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#61
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 January 2016 - 09:56 PM

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Well, there has not been much to talk about as of late. We are in a rather boring May-like pattern now. It's not like the rest of the country where they have snowstorms in winter and thunderstorms every day of the summer.

 

Anyway, it was really hazy today and I assume it's going to stay that way for quite a while as there are no cold storms or Santa Ana winds in the foreseeable future. This picture is from the Lake Forest Sports Park, which is pretty close to Saddleback Mountain.

attachicon.gifJanuaryHaze.png

 

The sky was rather ugly today as it almost looked as if it were smoggy. The air quality here in Orange has really been good lately, but today was just awful looking in comparison.



#62
Eujunga

Posted 16 January 2016 - 10:02 PM

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What we need is something to destroy the ridge completely and get us stuck in a deep trough for a while.

 

You mean like, say, an El Niño?  Oh, wait... :huh:


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#63
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 January 2016 - 10:02 PM

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Quoted from the 9:07 PM NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion tonight

 

Well, it's been a very mean (nasty) ridge in that it's contributing to our drought by blocking off storms. However, seems to be the same general pattern of persistent ridging as the last 2 winters except that it's much further south so it is allowing more periods of cool, cloudy weather and weak fronts through at times.

 

So they do say something could happen by the end of the month, but I think we've seen the models show things like this before only to disappoint. Also, I think storms undercutting the ridge means they just push the ridge out of the way for a few days, but the ridge never really does go away. It always seems to come back.

 

What we need is something to destroy the ridge completely and get us stuck in a deep trough for a while.

 

I am not sure what is causing this persistent low-latitude ridge this year considering how strong the El Nino is, but I think there is a possibility that MJO activity in the Indian Ocean or the Maritime Continent (SW Pacific region) may be the culprit.

 

This is not the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) pattern that was dominant for the early portion of the last few winters in which a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and vicinity was blocking activity from the north. This feels more like a La Nina pattern in which the heavier rains are focused over the Pacific NW and Norcal and largely bypassing us to the north due to a lower latitude ridge.


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#64
snow_wizard

Posted 16 January 2016 - 10:05 PM

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Welcome, Mr Marine Layer and WeatherCrossing!

 

Please post early and often -- I, for one, would welcome more activity and variety on the California forum.

 

Sometimes I find it amazing that out of a population of nearly 40,000,000 people in California, you can count on one hand the number who are interested enough in the weather to participate here.

 

That is pretty sad.  Interestingly the NW seems to have more traffic on weather forums than the Midwest does.  The NE is another area that has intense interest.  I think it boils down to the fact areas that almost always have boring weather or always have extreme weather don't get so much interest.  Places where you never really know what you're going to get have more interest.  Places in California that are more variable have very low population.

 

For you guys it appears you're going to be seeing more N to NW flow late in the month, so cool, but not overly wet may be the end result.  You might pick up a good front on the transition to the deep Western trough though.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#65
happ

Posted 17 January 2016 - 08:51 AM

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Something to consider is that the last major El Nino [1997-98] also produced a "modest" amount of rain in January w/ just a little over 4 inches.  Followed by over 16 inches in February at my location.

 

Fog cleared out early this morning with offshore wind.

 

Saturday: 67 / 53

 

L: 50



#66
WeatherCrossing

Posted 17 January 2016 - 11:03 AM

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NWS Sacramento's latest rainfall totals for Northern California.  Impressive!

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#67
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 January 2016 - 12:10 PM

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NWS Sacramento's latest rainfall totals for Northern California.  Impressive!

 

Nice, but those are forecast totals, not actual totals. Also, looks to die out after it hits the Sierras, so we need to hope it will still bring a lot of snow up there.

 

Hazy here again with some dense fog this morning that was thick enough to wet the ground in some places. Also, the hills are nice and green for a while.



#68
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 January 2016 - 05:13 PM

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Got a picture of the lake and green hills at Laguna Niguel Regional Park today. The sun was already pretty low, so most of the hill was mostly dark and it also added some glare to the picture. I hope we get some more rain soon so that the hills can stay green for a while.

 

Attached File  LagunaNiguel.png   1.21MB   1 downloads


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#69
Eujunga

Posted 17 January 2016 - 07:32 PM

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High of 67 today was the warmest since 12/9/15.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#70
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 January 2016 - 09:40 PM

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There's a pretty interesting article here.

 

http://www.sandiegou...el-nino-update/

 

Also, San Diego Forecast Discussion has mentioned potential for some better storms near the end of the month the 2nd night in a row. So we gotta just hope and pray.


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#71
Eujunga

Posted 17 January 2016 - 10:07 PM

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That's a good article.  Gets the facts right and resists any of the typical mass-media inclination towards hype.

 

After being disappointed too many times before by what the models show 10-14 days out, I'm not going to count any raindrops until there's some consistency inside of Day 5 or so.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#72
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 January 2016 - 12:02 PM

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Looks like some sort of a double inversion layer this morning. A low marine layer about 2000 ft. deep reached to the western edge of the Inland Empire and brought lots of haze and fog. Once that burned off, there are still some stratocumulus clouds near the mountain slopes that look more typical of a 4000 ft. deep marine layer.



#73
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 January 2016 - 10:17 PM

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Marine layer is keeping it rather warm tonight. Once again, the last few days have felt a lot more like our marine layer dominated late spring than the middle of winter. I miss the typical days we get in January with crystal clear visibility and deep blue skies that follow strong cold fronts or offshore flow events. We'll be lucky to get some drizzle or light rain tonight. 



#74
Eujunga

Posted 19 January 2016 - 08:13 AM

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Another "Where's the rain?" article:  http://www.latimes.c...0119-story.html

 

The interviewed climatologists keep saying "Be patient" and assure us that the rains will come in February and March.

 

Cynic that I am, I can't help but feel that the more they guarantee that it will rain, the better the chances that the whole thing fizzles out and we remain entrenched in drought :lol:


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#75
happ

Posted 19 January 2016 - 10:16 AM

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Another "Where's the rain?" article:  http://www.latimes.c...0119-story.html

 

The interviewed climatologists keep saying "Be patient" and assure us that the rains will come in February and March.

 

Cynic that I am, I can't help but feel that the more they guarantee that it will rain, the better the chances that the whole thing fizzles out and we remain entrenched in drought :lol:

 

That article is encouraging because it has really been boring for the past several weeks.

 

L: 52



#76
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 January 2016 - 11:31 AM

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Another "Where's the rain?" article:  http://www.latimes.c...0119-story.html

 

The interviewed climatologists keep saying "Be patient" and assure us that the rains will come in February and March.

 

Cynic that I am, I can't help but feel that the more they guarantee that it will rain, the better the chances that the whole thing fizzles out and we remain entrenched in drought :lol:

 

Other articles have been saying the storms hitting Nor Cal are typical El Nino storms, so the meteorologists cannot even agree on the characteristics and origin of El Nino storms. However, I always thought the El Nino storms are typically warmer storms from the subtropics with pretty high snow levels. However, even one of the big storms we got on the first week of January had snow levels down to about 4000 ft, which I would think is much too cold for a storm coming from the middle latitudes.


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#77
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 January 2016 - 01:39 PM

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That article is encouraging because it has really been boring for the past several weeks.

 

L: 52

 

Daniel Swain from Weather West (weatherwest.com) who was quoted in the article has been saying that there is a very good chance that the rains would return to Socal by the end of January and into February.



#78
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 January 2016 - 05:16 PM

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Maybe the rains will return, but this morning there was some dense fog. Do not ever remember having dense fog in Lake Forest with marine layer clouds reaching the coastal slopes the night before, so there must have been some unexpected offshore flow overnight.

It is very overcast as of now, but so far no rain has fallen.

 

EDIT: Just got some light rain or drizzle, but probably not enough to be measurable



#79
Eujunga

Posted 19 January 2016 - 08:01 PM

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Other articles have been saying the storms hitting Nor Cal are typical El Nino storms, so the meteorologists cannot even agree on the characteristics and origin of El Nino storms. However, I always thought the El Nino storms are typically warmer storms from the subtropics with pretty high snow levels. However, even one of the big storms we got on the first week of January had snow levels down to about 4000 ft, which I would think is much too cold for a storm coming from the middle latitudes.

 

I agree there seems to be some inconsistency.  I suppose that in an El Niño year, every storm that hits us can theoretically be called an "El Niño storm," but systems originating in the North Pacific and steered by the polar jet would not seem to meet the criteria for being distinctly of Niño origin.

 

On the other hand, I recall plenty of systems in the El Niño winter of 1997-1998 with snow levels of 6000 ft. or lower, and no one seemed to have any issue with them being called "El Niño storms."


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#80
happ

Posted 20 January 2016 - 10:16 AM

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I like what I read:

 

NWS_SF

10-15 GFS MODEL SHOWS THE
  PACIFIC STAYING ACTIVE WITH STORMS LINED UP FROM ASIA AND ACROSS
  THE PACIFIC FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEB. THUS THE DRY SPELL SHOULD
  ALLOW THE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO SUBSIDE BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE
  PERIOD ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF JAN OR BEGINNING OF FEB.

 

The ground was wet this morning but I doubt if much rain was recorded overnight.

 

Tuesday: 64 / 52

 

L: 56
 



#81
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 20 January 2016 - 11:31 AM

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Nice to get some light rain this morning, even though it's just like a drop in the bucket. I got 0.01" from it. Question is when will we get a real storm. 

 

Unfortunately, according to today's 2:30 AM NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion

 

 

SADLY THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF BIG STORMS FOR THE
  REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

 

So it looks like the potential storm for around January 30 is no longer there. :(



#82
richard mann

Posted 20 January 2016 - 02:20 PM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1152-slipt-flow/?p=111604


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#83
richard mann

Posted 20 January 2016 - 10:29 PM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=111675


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#84
Alan

Posted 21 January 2016 - 08:29 AM

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I recorded .20" from about 90 minutes of steady rain the other day....then the snow was rock hard the next morning, boy was it funny watching the pooch try to keep a steady paw doing her business - LOL.

This El Niño needs to deliver a fantastic February a Miracle March an awesome April and a monstrous May to not embarrass himself as a super Nino.....
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#85
happ

Posted 21 January 2016 - 09:44 AM

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I recorded .20" from about 90 minutes of steady rain the other day....then the snow was rock hard the next morning, boy was it funny watching the pooch try to keep a steady paw doing her business - LOL.

This El Niño needs to deliver a fantastic February a Miracle March an awesome April and a monstrous May to not embarrass himself as a super Nino.....

 

The 1997-98 El Nino did provide a "fantastic February" [over 16"] and a "monstrous May" [over 4 inches] though March [nearly 3"] and April [almost one inch] were less spectacular.  Nonetheless the rain year was over 35 inches.  I will be very pleased if we get something close to that this wet season. 

 

Wednesday: 70 / 56

 

L: 54



#86
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 21 January 2016 - 12:14 PM

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I was too young to remember this, but when I moved from New York to California in January 1983, my parents said it was very warm. It was probably over 80 degrees and we had left a very snowy New York. They then said that from February to May it rained almost non-stop. We will need to hope we can get something like that.

 

Offshore flow this morning was not strong enough to get rid of the dense fog before sunrise. In fact it's been a rather long period for mid-January with nothing to mix out the marine layer.

 

Today is one month since Winter Solstice, which means the astronomical winter is already 1/3 over. You may have noticed the later sunsets and slightly brighter evenings. However, the mornings have in Southern California not become any brighter since a month ago. In fact, the sunrise is about 2 minutes later than it was a month ago on the shortest day. Here is a comparison.

 

Attached File  NoonDec21.png   65.24KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  NoonJan21.png   64.9KB   0 downloads


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#87
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 21 January 2016 - 10:25 PM

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Sunsets from the last two nightsAttached File  tmp_6943-_20160121_221329-305586400.JPG   113.58KB   0 downloads

Attached File  tmp_6943-_20160121_221149-779712635.JPG   50.02KB   0 downloads
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#88
Alan

Posted 22 January 2016 - 09:49 AM

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I agree! I think winter will be heavy on the back end for SoCal, mid February through May....I bet March ends up being our big month.

The 1997-98 El Nino did provide a "fantastic February" [over 16"] and a "monstrous May" [over 4 inches] though March [nearly 3"] and April [almost one inch] were less spectacular. Nonetheless the rain year was over 35 inches. I will be very pleased if we get something close to that this wet season.

Wednesday: 70 / 56

L: 54


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#89
happ

Posted 22 January 2016 - 10:22 AM

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A quick look at rainfall data shows Norcal is above normal w/ areas still a little below normal [lower Sacramento valley, parts of Bay Area, San Joaquin].  Snowpack is wonderful especially northern Sierra and should continue for another day or two.  

 

It's interesting to see places in SoCal that are way above normal [San Diego: 190%, Ramona: 176%] due, in large part, to tropical moisture last summer/ fall.

 

Thursday: 77 / 54

 

L: 52



#90
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 22 January 2016 - 07:37 PM

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A quick look at rainfall data shows Norcal is above normal w/ areas still a little below normal [lower Sacramento valley, parts of Bay Area, San Joaquin].  Snowpack is wonderful especially northern Sierra and should continue for another day or two.  
 
It's interesting to see places in SoCal that are way above normal [San Diego: 190%, Ramona: 176%] due, in large part, to tropical moisture last summer/ fall.
 
Thursday: 77 / 54
 
L: 52

Any place you can get the July 1 - present rainfall totals and percent of average? I do not like how they are now starting the water year on Oct. 1.

#91
Eujunga

Posted 22 January 2016 - 09:07 PM

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Well, I couldn't help it.  I peeked.  GFS has been wagging back and forth on a system for next weekend, but the latest (00z) wag looks pretty bullish for rain on Sunday in SoCal, with ~530 thicknesses on Monday following the front, which could mean some impressively low snow levels.

 

Now I have to guard against the inevitable crushing disappointment when it disappears again.

 

But still... what fun if it verified...

 

http://s11.postimg.o...GFS_1_31_16.jpg

 

http://s11.postimg.o.../GFS_2_1_16.jpg


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#92
Eujunga

Posted 22 January 2016 - 09:36 PM

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Well, those images didn't show up like I meant them to -- I still don't have the hang of it.  I'll just attach them:

 

Attached File  gfs1-31-16.jpg   159.12KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  gfs2-1-16.jpg   156.52KB   0 downloads


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#93
happ

Posted 23 January 2016 - 11:39 AM

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Any place you can get the July 1 - present rainfall totals and percent of average? I do not like how they are now starting the water year on Oct. 1.

 

Good point.  Those totals for San Diego county must be based on the old Jul-Jun rain year.  Steve Johnson, a met in Fresno, is a good source for rain data: sjassoc@yahoo.com

 

I also prefer the Jul-Jun method since California goes into a long dry period in mid Spring.  It's like the monsoons start a new rain season.

 

Friday: 71 / 52

 

L: 54

Attached Files


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#94
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 23 January 2016 - 01:41 PM

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Good point.  Those totals for San Diego county must be based on the old Jul-Jun rain year.  Steve Johnson, a met in Fresno, is a good source for rain data: sjassoc@yahoo.com

 

I also prefer the Jul-Jun method since California goes into a long dry period in mid Spring.  It's like the monsoons start a new rain season.

 

Friday: 71 / 52

 

L: 54

Thank you, Happ.

 

Another disappointing front is passing with just a few sprinkles here. From the satellite, looks like it is mainly high clouds, which don't tend to bring much rain.



#95
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 23 January 2016 - 06:27 PM

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I also prefer the July to June rain year because all of CA is in its dry season at the end of June and it would be very rare if there was any measurable rain on June 30 or July 1 and even rarer if there were rain on both dates.



#96
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 23 January 2016 - 09:57 PM

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Front pretty much died and looks like it will bring even less rain to the lucky areas than the previous "storm". Weird thing about this one is that it had very few low clouds until late this afternoon. The January 19 system was more typical of a late spring marine layer drizzle/light rain event than a winter storm.

 

Even though just about every day this month has some sort of cloud cover including an unusually persistent marine layer for this time of year, we have had no true storm activity since the first week of January. After a few warm and sunny days, it looks like we couid get a potentially bigger storm for next weekend and maybe a pattern change, but I would not be surprised to see that disappear from the models.

 

On a side note, Barrow, Alaska recorded their first sunrise of 2016 today with the sun up from about 1:11 PM to 2:09 PM. However even at its highest point, the center of the sun was below the horizon.



#97
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 23 January 2016 - 11:18 PM

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Front pretty much died and looks like it will bring even less rain to the lucky areas than the previous "storm". Weird thing about this one is that it had very few low clouds until late this afternoon. The January 19 system was more typical of a late spring marine layer drizzle/light rain event than a winter storm.

 

Even though just about every day this month has some sort of cloud cover including an unusually persistent marine layer for this time of year, we have had no true storm activity since the first week of January. After a few warm and sunny days, it looks like we couid get a potentially bigger storm for next weekend and maybe a pattern change, but I would not be surprised to see that disappear from the models.

 

On a side note, Barrow, Alaska recorded their first sunrise of 2016 today with the sun up from about 1:11 PM to 2:09 PM. However even at its highest point, the center of the sun was below the horizon.

 

We are due for a pattern change that will bring heavier rains to Socal. It is very unusual for Socal to keep missing out like this during such a strong El Nino event. If this continues to happen for the rest of the season, that means there is likely something else going on that usually doesn't in a pattern like this. If things progress normally, then I would expect good rains from February on into at least April, if not longer.



#98
Eujunga

Posted 25 January 2016 - 05:08 PM

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GFS still consistently shows a decent storm for Sunday while the ECMWF stubbornly says no.  Interesting to see which blinks first.  The way things have gone this winter so far, though, at this point I would reluctantly have to put my money on the ECMWF.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#99
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 25 January 2016 - 06:30 PM

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GFS still consistently shows a decent storm for Sunday while the ECMWF stubbornly says no.  Interesting to see which blinks first.  The way things have gone this winter so far, though, at this point I would reluctantly have to put my money on the ECMWF.

 

Yes, it would be nice to see GFS come true. We need the rain desperately, even with the temporary greenness of the hills.

 

In the meanwhile, it was the first mostly clear day in quite some time. These are the kinds of days that make California famous. I would enjoy it much more, though, if we would have had some big storms last week instead of the partly to mostly cloudy weather with occasional drizzle or sprinkles.


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#100
happ

Posted 25 January 2016 - 06:57 PM

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Yes, it would be nice to see GFS come true. We need the rain desperately, even with the temporary greenness of the hills.

 

In the meanwhile, it was the first mostly clear day in quite some time. These are the kinds of days that make California famous. I would enjoy it much more, though, if we would have had some big storms last week instead of the partly to mostly cloudy weather with occasional drizzle or sprinkles.

 

Yes, the hills are green and the high mountains have snow à la California winter.  I'm really eager for some more rainfall, not drizzle.

 

72 / 51


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